Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Short-Term Arctic Predictability (STAP):A study of the variability and predictability of Arctic atmospheric, ice, ocean, and land surface events, and their interaction with global processes on the 3-90 days time scale  (Short-Term Arctic Predictability - STAP)

Outline
SUMMARY: This scientific study will explore the variability, and associated predictability of weather, sea ice, ocean wave, and land surface processes in the Arctic region in the 3-90 days time range, with special emphasis on improving forecast guidance for high impact events in the 3-14 day lead time range.MOTIVATION: Alaska, and the Arctic as a whole, is experiencing significant climate change, including permafrost melt, an increase in the frequency of storms and associated problems with ocean waves, storm surges, and sea ice. With these changes, more Arctic coastal communities with low coastal relief are experiencing a greater risk of coastal erosion and flooding from coastal storms. Operational forecast agencies like NOAA face increasing pressure from the emergency management and other decision-making communities for providing forecasts and warnings with ever increasing lead-time and accuracy. In particular, users require forecasts for the track, intensity, and timing of damaging storms that have a consistency from one day to the next, provide information on forecast uncertainty, and are in a probabilistic format.BACKGROUND: Arctic weather, and other processes driven by weather, such as sea ice, ocean waves, and storm surges, are all determined and/or strongly influenced by atmospheric conditions within and outside of the Arctic. Since influences in the jet areas of the atmosphere can propagate at or above a speed of 3500 km per day, the scope of this study will expand beyond the Arctic region, to include processes in mid-latitude and tropical regions. The two-way interactions between polar and extra-polar processes on the 3-90 day time scale will be an important aspect of this study.EXPECTED RESULTS: This study will lead to a better understanding of atmospheric, sea ice, and oceanic processes responsible for high impact weather events both within the Arctic (influenced also by mid-latitude and tropical processes), and in areas adjacent to the Arctic (influenced by Arctic weather processes). The accumulated new scientific knowledge will enable the investigators to develop new weather forecast procedures in the areas of observing system, data assimilation, numerical modelling, and socio-economic applications, that will lead to improved weather forecasts both in the Arctic and in the surrounding areas.RESEARCH PROGRAM ELEMENTS:1)Observing system a) Study the effect of all supplemental IPY atmospheric, land surface, and oceanic observations in the Arctic on the skill of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, coupled with ocean wave and sea ice models b) Test new satellite and in-situ observing platforms and instruments c) Collect adaptive observations along the north Pacific Storm track, and its source region over the western tropical Pacific, for improving weather forecasts for critical Arctic IPY and other activities 2) Data Assimilation a) Develop adaptive observational methods to be used for collecting targeted observations for improved high impact Arctic weather forecasts b) Improve the assimilation of current and future atmospheric, sea ice, and ocean and land surface data, e. g., radiance and other satellite (AIRS, MODIS) and in-situ data, especially over ice/snow, over both polar regions:i) Address surface emissivity issues by utilizing satellite-derived cloud products for the direct assimilation of cloudy radiancesii) Use in-situ observations to better characterize satellite observation error covariances,c) Contribute to the design of the next generation global atmospheric, ice, and land surface observing system in the two polar, and the adjacent regions of the Earth, in the framework of the GEOSS program 3) Numerical Modeling a) Identify and diagnose model weaknesses critical for polar regions and polar – extra-polar interactions (e. g., representation of boundary layer processes in Arctic; cold air outbreaks from polar regions; moisture and heat transport from low latitudes to polar regions, etc) b) Improve atmospheric, sea ice, and land surface model formulation in areas of weakness c) Accelerate testing and operational implementation of Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) for storm surge prediction d) Develop capacity to represent model related uncertainty in NWP ensemble forecasting e) Asses the value of high resolution Limited Area Modeling (LAM) with the Climate Weather and Research Forecast (CWRF) model for high impact Arctic events f) Contribute to TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) research goals, based on NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System), develop prototype ensemble component of future Global Forecast System (GIFS) 4) Arctic Socio-Economic Applications and Outreach a)Provide new probabilistic weather, ice, and ocean products to support the Arctic user community b) Develop, in partnership with user community, innovative new procedures for the beneficial use of weather forecast information in different Arctic applications c) Quantify the effect of existing and improved weather forecast information on key groups of users

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
The major contribution of this study will be under the 2nd IPY theme:1) “Quantify and understand […] present environmental and human changes in the polar regions in order to improve predictions”. The scientific advances achieved through this project will facilitate improved weather, sea ice, ocean wave/surge, and land surface (permafrost) forecasts for polar societies in the 3-90 day time range. The major goal of the project will be supported by work toward three other IPY themes:2) “Determine the present status of the polar regions by quantifying their spatial and temporal variability.” Work under the Observing System and Data Assimilation program elements will contribute to this theme;3) “To investigate the cultural, historical, and social processes that shape the sustainability of circumpolar human societies…” Work under the Arctic Socio-Economic Applications and Outreach program elements will address this IPY theme;4) “Investigate the frontiers of science in the polar regions”. This theme will be addressed by the scientific research listed under all program elements

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
This project will have extensive collaboration with scientists from Canada, Russia, and all other countries that contribute to the enhancement of the Arctic and Antarctic observing system for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, and land surface. Collaboration is also likely with scientists from other countries surrounding the Arctic, where the improved forecasts and user procedures can be utilized. Collaboration is also expected to develop with participants from Japan and other Asian and European countries with respect to the targeted observation component of the project.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Field activities will take place over the northwest Pacific, that is the starting point of the Pacific jet that is responsible for the development of storms affecting Alaska and other Arctic areas, as well as the region of the Maritime Continent and surrounding Equatorial oceans where the moisture and energy influencing the jet originates. Atmospheric data collected in these areas will complement the large array of Arctic observations, allowing for new studies of polar to global interactions.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 01/08-03/08      12/08-02/09      
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Manned fixed-wing aircraft (dropsonde and other observations)Remotely operated vehicles (aerosondes)High altitude balloons with dropsonde capabilities (driftsondes)Data collected by these facilities will be shared in real time by the entire user community and will be used for at least three purposes:a) Studying global-to-polar interactionsb) Calibrating new satellite instrumentsc) Assimilating the data to improve Arctic weather, ice, ocean wave/surge, and land surface forecastsThe experimental data will be complemented by dropsonde data collected within the operational Winter Storm Reconnaissance program over the northeast Pacific, between Hawaii and Alaska

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
1) Procedures developed by the project for the optimal design of the configuration of the atmospheric observing system for weather, sea ice, ocean wave/surge, and land surface forecasting, that can be used when new platforms and/or instruments are developed and/or tested2) Global, multi-center ensemble weather, sea ice, and ocean wave forecast system providing data out to 14 days in advance for Arctic applications3) Procedures and guidelines developed for Arctic applications of weather forecasts

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Consortium
National agency

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
The US IPY Committee is not endorsing projects at this time, but will provide comments later. The present proposal is consistent with the IPY-related THORPEX plans described in the THORPEX International Implementation Plan (TIP) that the THORPEX International Core Steering Committee (ICSC) endorsed at its December 2004 meeting.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Yes

This proposal is one of a set of ten coordinated submissions by NOAA. In particular, links are noted with the following NOAA submissions: Causes and impacts of recent changes in Pacific Arctic (John Calder & Kathy Crane)Data Management/Arctic Change Detection (Florence Fetterer)Decision Support in Alaska and the Arctic (Juniper Neill)Arctic climate modelling (Tony Beesley)Arctic System Reanalysis (John Calder)Advances in Satellite Products and Their Use in Numerical Weather Prediction (Jeff Key)This project is also part of THORPEX activities directed at polar regions and as such will be coordinated with THORPEX plans at the US national (David Parsons), and international levels

How will the project be organised and managed?
It is anticipated that the present project will be led by the NOAA THORPEX Program Manager (NTPM). The NTPM will be assisted by a NOAA IPY-THORPEX group, formed by the investigators listed below, and by interested scientists from the well established NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Committee (NTSIC) that the NTPM leads. Depending on available resources, the NOAA THORPEX program may solicit additional IPY investigators from the academic community through its grant program. The present project will be carefully coordinated with the other nine NOAA IPY submissions.Activities under this proposal will also be well coordinated with related other research work. In particular, it is expected that the present proposal will be carried out as part of US national, and international efforts aimed at understanding and better predicting large-scale atmospheric processes under the THORPEX international program.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
The education, outreach, and communication issues will be handled through four channels:1) Separate NOAA submission: Decision Support in Alaska and the Arctic (Juniper Neill) – Reach out to the general public2) NOAA THORPEX Grant Program - Engage the academic community, including students and young scientists3) Activities listed under the Arctic Socio-Economic Applications and Outreach Program element of this proposal – Reach out to Arctic user communities4) Socio-Economic Application (SEA) of International THORPEX program – Reach out to general user community to raise awareness about advances in, and applications of polar science

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Data management issues will be addressed at 3 levels, through:1) Separate NOAA submission on Data Management (Florence Fetterer)2) Possible establishment of US IPY-THORPEX Data Base, coordinated with other US agencies3) Taking advantage of expected THORPEX developments at the international level (e. g., contributions by the THORPEX Data Policy and Management Working Group; TIGGE Working Group, etc).

How is it proposed to fund the project?
It is anticipated that a significant portion of the NOAA THORPEX funds ($2.3M total in FY2006 budget) will be directed toward funding certain activities described in this proposal. Other activities are expected to be funded through separate initiatives within NOAA and the JCSDA. Availability of additional funding within NOAA will be explored for further studies within the present proposal.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
The goals of the present IPY proposal for improved understanding and prediction of Arctic processes at the interface of weather and climate, are shared by two other major programs: the Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS), aimed at a better description of global processes, and THe Observing system Research, and Predictability EXperiment THORPEX), aimed at improved global weather forecasting. Polar sciences will greatly benefit from the synergistic collaboration with these other communities, as a large number of scientists become involved in research of mutual interest. The investigators of the present proposal believe that additional benefits of this collaboration for both the polar research and polar user communities will come to light as the participants become more engaged in the project. Examples for such added benefits include forecasts for air quality and other processes that depend on successful coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface modeling on the 3-90 days time scale.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Program Manager Zoltan Toth
5200 Auth Road, Room 207
Camp Springs, MD
20746
USA

Tel: 1-301 763-8000/ ext. 7596
Mobile: no
Fax: 1-301 763-8545
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation