Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Simulated IPYs: International Collaboration in Arctic Change Studies Based on Numerical Modeling  (Simulated IPYs (SIPY))

Outline
Historically, each IPY has been characterized by exploring new directions of Arctic studies and employing new technologies. We propose IPY 2007-2008 to have a numerical modeling component as one of the major accomplishments of the Arctic studies in the modern world.International Polar Years (1882-1883, 1932-1933, 1957-1958, and future 2007-2008) are sources of vastly increased data from climatically crucial regions. The 2007-2008 IPY will have access to observing technologies almost undreamed of in 1957-1958. And there is another revolution since 1957-1958: computers. Today we do not only pull together vast datasets but also numerically integrate in detail equations of motion for ocean-ice-atmosphere coupled systems to interpret these data from a large scale and long-term perspective. We want to suggest a strong role for emergent numerical modeling combined with new observing methods as an integral part to comprehensive IPY 2007-2008 studies. Such a modeling presence interfaces with other elements in the 2007-2008 IPY, and draws also on previous IPYs, in several regards. IPYs serve as benchmarks of Arctic climate states and, in principal, differences among these states reflect Arctic climate change. Unfortunately, temporal resolution of IPYs does not resolve natural climate cycling and much more information is needed for robust conclusions. In order to fill temporal and spatial informational gaps and answer major questions related to the Arctic climate change, we propose employing methods of numerical modeling, namely: a set of Arctic numerical models (atmospheric, sea ice, oceanic, terrestrial, coupled and uncoupled, regional and global) developed and run by experts of international community.The model-based internationally coordinated experiments will be used at different IPY 2007-2008 development stages. At the planning stage, model results can be used to assist in designing the observational network. During IPY, models working in operative regime will diagnose and predict atmospheric, oceanic and sea ice conditions assisting in field activities and optimizing observational schemes. We expect that during IPY 2007-2008, models with data assimilation techniques will play a major role in assisting IPY goals. After the IPY field phase, modeling will be used for Arctic atmosphere, sea ice, ocean and terrestrial data reconstruction for the period of existing observations, for nearest future predictions, and major questions of the Arctic climate change processes will be resolved with better accuracy. Arctic environmental data collected during IPYs will be used for model calibration and validation and a reconstruction of forcing parameters. Through the interface between regional Arctic and global climate modeling, we can better determine the interactive interdependencies between Arctic processes and global change. Employing of a set of different Arctic models in internationally coordinated numerical experiments will guarantee highest quality model results and effective solutions for IPY 2007-2008 design, optimization and coordination.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
This project will advance the IPY themes of detecting Arctic change, understanding polar processes, attracting the next generation of researchers, and capturing the interest of the public. The project will provide an assessment of the current state of the Arctic climate and an infrastructure for future assessments. Observations and models will be used to investigate ice-ocean-atmosphere processes and interactions. The public will be informed about the importance of polar regions, and about science in general, through an extensive educational outreach component including web sites, classroom programs, public lectures, mass media, and the participation of undergraduate and graduate students.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
International collaboration is expected in all aspects of this project and this is because of the nature of our approach: models and numerical experiments from the most comprehensive and advanced modelling groups in USA, Canada, Norway, Belgium, Russia, Germany, etc.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
No field activity is proposed. We are focusing on synthesis and integration of the observational data via model validation, calibration, and hypotheses testing. We believe that the development of advanced numerical models and model experiments represents the highest level of integration and synthesis and provide us with instruments to predict future climate conditions and changes.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
We will use clusters of PCs and supercomputers

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
The legacy of this project will include: a comprehensive integrated dataset on the state of the Arctic climate; a set of comprehensive calibrated and validated models able to simulate and predict arctic climate variability.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
Letter of interest was submitted to IPY in August, 2004.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?


This project is an expansion and integration of ongoing modelling activities under AOMIP and ARCMIP international projects.

How will the project be organised and managed?
There will be a steering committee to effectively manage and coordinate the project. This committee will consist of project investigators, colleagues from other disciplines, experts from other IPY activities, and stakeholders. This committee will provide overall project guidance, formulate numerical experiment strategy, develop international collaboration.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
An extensive educational outreach component will include media contacts, web sites, classroom programs, public lectures, and the participation of undergraduate and graduate students. Creative use of improved communication and internet access will bring an unprecedented sense of immediacy from the field to the public.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Data and metadata from the project will be analyzed, archived, and submitted to the established data archives at Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (AOMIP) and Arctic Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ARCMIP) web sites and archives of the participating institutions/countries.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
The project will be funded through a combination of ongoing research grants and the submission of additional new proposals to national funding agencies for future support.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
ARCMIP group has already submitted their IPY related letter to national IPY committee of Germany.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr. Andrey Proshutinsky
360 Woods Hole Road
Woods Hole
02543
USA

Tel: 508-289-2796
Mobile: no
Fax: 508-457-2181
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation