Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Predicted environmental changes and biodiversity: modelling the effects of climate changes on echinoids distribution.  (Forecasting echinoids biodiversity (FOREBIO))

Outline
Context: Global changes (namely climatic) influence species distribution and consequently the structure of the communities and ecosystems. The global warming hypothesis is now rather strongly supported by various sources of data (meteorological, biological), and it is widely considered that polar regions will be particularly affected. The consequences of such a phenomenon on the pristine Antarctic ecosystem should be quite dramatic, and it becomes necessary to address the point in order to estimate their impact. Objectives: The project aims to develop a model simulating changes in biodiversity in response to climatic scenarios that could occur in the XXIth century. This model needs basic biological data to be constructed: (1) a descriptive survey of the biodiversity of the Antarctic echinoids, (2) a descriptive survey of the potential Antarctic immigrant species, (3) a general idea on the biological answers of Antarctic species towards environmental changes (i.e., warming). We have chosen echinoids as an accurate model because: i) they represent an important compartment of the benthic fauna; ii) they are sensitive enough to climatic parameters; iii) we have a comprehensive database for Antarctica. Steps: Starting from the present day situation, the approach envisages to apply successive « filters » corresponding to climatic and physical changes as well as to the sensibility of organisms to those changes in order to produce models forecasting modifications in Antarctic sea urchins distribution. 1. Setting the 2005 situation: description and dynamics • Inventory of the sea urchins species and of their distribution in the South American, Magellanic and Antarctic (Peninsula + Weddell Sea) provinces. This aspect consists in an updating and northward extension of the existing « Antarctic echinoids » database. • Faunal relationships between the above mentioned provinces. Dynamics of species distributions (various biogeographic indexes); this will be done distinguishing different bathymetric ranges. • Climatic and abiotic data regarding SST, bottom temperature, currents, sediment distribution… Those items are additional to the biological database. They will have to be set at the scale of the smallest geographic units considered by the database. 2. Filters for changes • Physical « filter ». Modelling climatic and abiotic changes. From models available in the literature, we aim to set the expected conditions pertaining for various scenarios (CO2x2, CO2x4…). As far as possible, this will be done for the same parameters as in last point above. • Biological « filter ». We will have to consider how organisms (sea urchins) react or buffer the changes (i.e. what is their range of tolerance). This will mostly concern physiological data taken from the literature, but will also include experiments (e.g. at King Georges Island, maintain mature sea urchins at various temperatures to estimate the effect of this parameter on gonadic index, fertility…). Information from past climatic changes and their influence on sea urchins fauna will also be taken in account (e.g. what has triggered the disappearance of marsupiate echinoids - displaying similar traits of life as the extant Antarctic echinofauna - from North Atlantic in the last 1 M.a.). • Migratory « filter ». The settlement of a species in a new area will depend of its migration aptitude which in turn is related to the dispersal potential of the species (type of larva…) as well as to the physical context (distance from the area of origin, direction of currents, availability of ecological niches…). 3. Outputs of the models = forecasted sea urchins biogeographic distribution in 2100 • We will propose different scenarios of distribution according to the various types of « filters » applied, from the simplest – considering only temperature – to more complex system – taking in account other physical parameters as the adaptive and migratory potentials of sea urchins. • The former step will be implemented with the help of models. • The expected outputs will stay rather coarse. We do not intend to predict with a great accuracy all the biogeographic changes, but we aim to be able to determine an order of magnitude for the expected change: i.e. 10%, 50% or 80% of the Weddell Sea echinoids fauna will be affected, are the changes mostly due to arrivals by migration than extinctions, are the main echinoids clades affected the same way…

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
The project will manage valuable marine biodiversity data. The project will focus on echinoids, i.e., a representative group of the Antarctic marine benthos and will provide an updated data basis and an accessible model forecasting biodiversity changes.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
Dr Bruno David and collaborators (Biogeosciences, University of Burgundy -FRANCE), Dr Rich Mooi (California Academy of Sciences, San Francisco, USA), Dr Lucia de Siqueiria Campos (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro – BRAZIL), Dr Ana Ramos University of Malaga –SPAIN), Dr Elie Poulin (Universidad de Santiago, CHILE), Ute Jacob (Benthic ecosystems, AWI, Bremerhaven -GERMANY), Prof. K. Jazdzewski (Laboratory of Polar Biology and Oceanbiology (Lodz, Poland)

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Magellanic and Antarctic (Peninsula + Weddell Sea) provinces. South America (up to 35°N)

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: 11/07– 03/08            

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
It needs participation to Antarctic campaigns to sample echinoids and to complete the biogeographic survey. It needs access to Antarctic stations (e.g., on King George Island) to perform physiological studies on echinoids (effects of T° on growth and development)

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
It will provide to the community an interactive data basis (accessible via CDROM and a web site) and a model forecasting biodiversity changes related to global warming.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
The project is the continuity of national project BIANZO (funded by the Belgian federal public planning service science policy: 2002-2006). A new funding will be asked in 2006

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
yes

The project is the continuity of national project BIANZO (funded by the Belgian federal public planning service science policy) that ends in 2005. Up to 2005, the project is thus part of an existing programme (Belgian Scientific Research Programme on the Antarctic). A new funding will be asked in 2006 to the same authorities. The project follows the SCAR recommendations of the Evolution and Biodiversity in the Antarctic (EBA) program and of the Census of Marine Life (CoML) program.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The project will be self-managed by the PI (laboratories involved have a long term experience of collaboration). Scientific steps are described in 1. 3.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
It will make data accessible e.g., through the information network that will be set up by the SCAR-MarBIN.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Funding by national agencies, in Belgium and France respectively. See also 3.1

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Prof De Ridder Chantal
Université Libre de Bruxelles.
Marine Biology Laboratory (C.P.160/15). 50, av. F.D. Roosevelt, B-1050 Brussels
1050
Belgium

Tel: 32 2 650 2966
Mobile: no
Fax: 32 2 650 2796
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation