Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

IGY+50: Borehole temperature changes in Antarctica – how has the continent warmed and cooled since the IGY? A (re)survey of shallow borehole temperatures for the International Polar Year.  (IGY+50:ANCORE ('encore') (ANtarctic Change Observation through traverse site RE-measurement))

Outline
From the 1950’s to the 1970’s, an extensive network of shallow boreholes was carefully measured for temperature in Antarctica. The intent was to map the mean annual temperature; despite high precision and careful measurement protocols, variations were identified that could not easily be explained. Improved techniques for understanding how temperature shifts appear in thermal profiles, and the ability to map the mean temperature field in spatial detail using satellite remote sensing, have now made it possible to improve our understanding of the past data. Given this, a new program of borehole measurements, made at the same locations as in IGY and other traverses, offers the opportunity to measure changes in mean annual temperature over much of Antarctica with good precision. A (re-)survey of Antarctic shallow-borehole temperatures and accumulation at IGY sites and other past traverse locations is proposed. The survey would be a coordinated effort by a number of international investigators, using techniques and protocols devised collaboratively. The new survey would incorporate deeper drilling (to 15 - 30 meters), and full-annual-cycle measurement at multiple depths (to determine thermal diffusivities from the relationship between surface and deeper temperature variations), with satellite transmission of the post-field-season data from several sites. At selected sites, the re-survey would be coupled with deeper holes (~100 m) to capture the deeper thermal profile, which combined with appropriate thermal modeling can be linked to decadal to century temperature shifts. We will re-measure accumulation rates at the sites (using radioisotope tracers and GPR) and use remote sensing of the spatial patterns of surface temperature variation around the sites to provide a better understanding of shallow borehole temperature variations. With the depth and sensitivity of re-measurement proposed, detection of mean annual temperature change need not require that the past data be accurate; but the extensive collection of accurate IGY-era temperatures will provide an important base map of temperatures across the continent against which changing patterns can be detected and then confirmed. The effort has much potential for international cooperation; the sites of 30- to 60-year-old borehole temperature measurements (there are more than 600) extend across many nations’ traditional research locations. Our main thrust will be at the sites where past IGY and 1960s traverses cluster together. The project would address major questions concerning climate change in Antarctica and the extent of warming/cooling trends on the continent, providing a spatially extensive measurement of temperature change to be compared with patterns of change predicted by GCM-based reanalysis studies.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
This project will advance our understanding of patterns of temperature change in Antarctica on a spatial scale large enough to address global ties and forcings. It addresses IPY Themes 1, 2, 3 and 5. The project supports many objectives of the IPY. These include: international scope, utilizing and building on past IGY efforts, relevance to current scientific debate and public interest. International cooperation is required to visit sites over the whole of Antarctica. The project inherently makes use of IGY data, raising the IGY-era objective (mapping the continent) to a new level (detecting and mapping changes).

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
International collaboration is key to the success of this effort. Scientists who have expressed an interest in participating at this juncture are from: USA: Ted Scambos and John Behrendt (University of Colorado), Mark Fahnestock (University of New Hampshire), Kurt Cuffey (University of California, Berkely), and Raytheon ITSS / NASA/GSFC (Mario Giovinetto) Italy: Massimo Frezzotti (through his connection with the IPY-TASTE-IDEA traverses) Norway: Elisabeth Isaksson and Jan-Gunnar Winther (Norwegian Polar Institute) Others expressing interest would be welcome to join at the proposal stage. We recognize a significant potential for collaboration with another IPY effort: IPY-TASTE- IDEA plans to visit many useful sites on the East Antarctic Plateau along old traverse routes. We have identified the benefits of this collaboration and would depend on it for measurements in these areas.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Clusters of past traverse sites, and a few sites with full-annual thermal cycle measurements, exist near Byrd Station, the South Pole, Plateau Station, the Filchner Ice Shelf, and Little America V. We also plan a Peninsula site, along the Graham Land crest. As noted above, TASTE-IDEA plans several traverses on the East Antarctic Divide, and will be visiting several IGY-era sites. IGY data also exist near Mawson. We would coordinate with groups going there.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: 11/07-1/08      11/08-1/09      

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Aircraft support to reach centers of past measurements and sites too distant from these centers to be reached by snowmobile traverses. Satellite data use is anticipated, including, but not limited to: Surface conditions from moderate-resolution spectrometers Coordination of international temperature remeasurement efforts and a standardization of observation strategies will greatly enhance our utilization of these and other resources.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
The coordination of observing efforts will allow development of intercomparable observation strategies that will allow analysis of temperature changes over large areas. The observation networks may track the evolution of firn thermal profiles for several years after IPY.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

The investigators from each country will propose measurement campaigns to their respective agencies; where possible standardized systems will be shared. Logistical support will be on a national basis in most cases.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
The individual efforts under this expression of intent are in the process of being considered by the appropriate national IPY committees.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Yes

This expression of intent covers research in multiple countries; components of this work fall into the “New Project” category, while other components may be part of an existing or planned activity. Details of the breakdown of the components will be provided in the June 2005 proposal (if ANCORE is approved).

How will the project be organised and managed?
A Project Steering Committee of international and multi-institutional composition (with the membership from all involved countries, where possible) will be established at the outset; it is anticipated that this will evolve as the full proposal is being compiled. This steering committee will facilitate development of field measurement stratigies (including design of systems and techniques for measuring thermal profiles), logistical coordination, data sharing, release, and archiving strategies, and multi-investigator interpretation efforts as appropriate. The PSC will also be responsible for convening annual open meetings of investigators targeted at presentation of recent results and facilitation of communication and collaboration across national and institutional boundaries.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
The concept of taking the temperature of the firn over large areas is easily translated to people at all levels. While each individual effort will have its own (national) requirements for education and outreach, the Project Steering Committee will have responsibility to oversee coordination among those efforts, to ensure that the scope and results of the undertaking are clear to all.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Data will be archived at World Data Centers (eg. Cambridge and Boulder), as appropriate, and real-time data will be available on the Web. Data exchange, collaborative use, and incorporation into models will be enhanced by annual investigators meetings to be coordinated by the Project Steering Committee.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Investigators will apply to their national agencies for support of work discussed in this expression of intent.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
Global climate change, and its spectacular manifestations in the Antarctic, has captured the attention of both the scientific community and the public. The study’s results will quantify warming or cooling over the continent and map its spatial pattern, a first step towards understanding the climate shifts responsible for temperature change. As the 50-year mark approaches for the various 10-meter sites, accuracy of the determination of change rate is dropping to a level where it can be compared to the best records of the rest of the world. It is still possible to engage some of the original scientists who were involved with the IGY-era measurements: now is the time to do this.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Mark Fahnestock
CSRC/EOS, University of New Hampshire
236 A Morse Hall
Durham, NH
03824
USA

Tel: 603-862-5065
Mobile: no
Fax: 603-862-0188
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation