Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Focussing and enhancement of connections between the polar and midlatitude regions.  (Focussing of teleconnections)

Outline
Work on annular modes of the atmosphere has indicated a strong link between the stratospheric polar vortex and the surface atmosphere in the polar regions. The work of Ambaum and Hoskins (J. Clim., 2002) explains how a change in the stratosphericcirculation in the Arctic and Antarctic leads to a surfacesignal over the polar regions. However, in the N. Hemisphere there are major remote effects that focus over the Atlantic basin region. These effects project strongly on the North Atlantic Oscillation and on the global warming signature. This also has major effects on extreme weather in and around the Atlantic region. We propose to study this enhancement of polar to midlatitude teleconnectivity in the N. Hemisphere and the comparatively weak teleconnectivity in the S. Hemisphere. We will be using targeted experiments with idealised climate models as well as analysis of data from observations and climate model runs that are currently available or follow from work under the remit of the IPY. We aim to understand and predict the features of this central dynamical aspect of the connection between the stratosphere through the polar regions with the midlatitudes. The following questions will be addressed in the proposed research: - How and why does the focussing and enhancement of the teleconnectivity between the Arctic and Atlantic regions work? - What effect does this enhancement have on the occurence of extreme weather events in Europe? - How do upstream conditions in the Pacific region and N. America influence these effects?

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Improvement in the prediction of and in our understanding of non-local effects from the polar region to the Atlantic region. Increase in confidence in the interpretation and use of climate change predictions of global mean temperatures as well as regional climate change and extreme weather.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
The intention is to coordinate activities in this area of research groups from the UK and possibly other research groups mainly located in Europe and the US. The initial proposal will however seek to fund one or more postdocatoral researchers in the UK.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: TBC            
Antarctic: TBC            

Significant facilities will be required for this project:

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Exp

The proposer is working to secure funding in the UK in the strongly related area on the dynamics of the N. Hemisphere storm-track.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The required investment will be relatively small consisting of a number of postdocs located in the UK. The coordination will be through regular meetings between the research groups and through websites. This is expected to imply of a fairly limited amount of coordination and management done in the Department of Meteorology at Reading University. q3_3_EOCplan : The postdoctoral positions and tied studenthsips will provide education and training for the future generation of scientists. Disseminiation of research outcomes will be through peer reviewed publications and international conferences. Detailed plans for possible wider outreach and communication have not been finalized at this stage.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
The postdoctoral positions and tied studenthsips will provide education and training for the future generation of scientists. Disseminiation of research outcomes will be through peer reviewed publications and international conferences.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
Sharing and managament of substantial data between research groups will be set up, if required, using infrastructure at AEDC or BADC, both funded by NERC.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
This proposal has been put in under the remit of the NERC Arctic-IPY initiative in the United Kingdom.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Maarten Ambaum
P.O. Box 243
Reading
RG6 6BB
UK

Tel: +44 (0)118 3786609
Mobile: no
Fax: +44 (0)118 3788905
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation