Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

A circum-polar study of the sensitivity of large Arctic ice caps to climate change  (CIRICA)

Outline
The melt of small glaciers and ice caps accounted for an estimated 20-30 % of global sea-level rise during the 20th Century (Meier, 1984; IPCC, 2001), with the remainder explained by ocean thermal expansion. This represents a dramatic and disproportionate response of small glaciers, which make up just 0.5 % of global ice volume (Meier, 1984), and highlights the hyper-sensitivity of these systems to climatic warming. These estimates have been compiled using mass balance data primarily from valley glaciers since data from larger ice caps is sparse. Our poor knowledge of ice caps arises for 3 main reasons. First, their spatial scale lies between that of continental ice sheets and valley glaciers, and it is therefore difficult to obtain meaningful information. For example, most satellite sensors have been designed for measurement of continental ice sheets. Second, the physics controlling ice flow within ice caps is more complex than that assumed to hold at the larger spatial scales of ice sheets. It is only in the last two years that models capable of simulating ice cap flow effectively (including horizontal stress transmission) have been developed. Third, many of the Arctic’s ice caps lie in the territory of the former Soviet Union, and scientists from western countries have only recently had access to these sites. In many senses (geographical, political, theoretical), the Arctic ice caps are therefore at the frontier of current glaciological research. Since they also account for the bulk of Arctic glacier ice volume, this deficiency in knowledge limits our ability to predict sea level change accurately. This proposal reflects an internationally-coordinated effort to fill this research gap, aiming to determine the mass balance state and sensitivity of key benchmark polar ice caps. It draws on a number of other international IPY initiatives to provide field data for modelling work. Major goals include, 1.The creation of a baseline database of ice and bedrock surface elevation, thickness of major Artic ice caps obtained by data mining and new airborne surveys (Svalbard and Russia). 2.Ability to simulate the response of ice caps to past and future climate change, and their contribution to sea-level change (using models of surface mass balance and ice dynamics). 3.Understanding (through field investigation/modelling of a representative Russian Arctic ice cap) of processes unique to ice caps and that contribute to variation in their mass balance, (in terms of surface accumulation, ablation, and ice-flow variability).

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
A key component is the collation of existing and new datasets, providing the best assessment to date of the current mass balance state of polar ice caps (Theme 1). Together with numerical modelling, we will also assess past, present and future rates of change for these ice masses (Theme 2). A better understanding of the interactions between the polar Arctic and the rest of the globe are an implicit component of this project (Theme 3). The neglect of ice caps in glaciological research, in particular Russian Arctic ice caps, places this work at the frontier of Arctic science (Theme 4).

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
This project is truly international and inter-disciplinary, involving research groups in Russia, Canada, Scandinavia, the Netherlands, the UK and US. It is nested within broader initiatives from these groups, with a unique focus on ice caps. It will provide a central node of communication and integration for ice cap research.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
The main fieldwork will take place on a selected Russian ice cap, depending on field station activity. A range of ground-based measurements will be combined with remote sensing data and used to parameterise and validate numerical models. New airborne surveys will be conducted over the Russian and Norwegian Arctic.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 04/07 – 09/07      04/08 – 09/08      
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Helicopters (summer) and Snow vehicles (winter) Fixed wing geophysical aircraft Satellites and Radar Ice drilling capability Fuel depots Existing field stations in Russian Arctic, field station on Svalbard (airborne survey) Field resources can be shared with the Russian-based IPY projects lead by Glazovsky (Russia), IASC-WAG IPY group and Koerner (Canada).

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
Some observational stations for meteorological monitoring can be left for measurement in future years. Stake networks for mass balance may also be used in future years. Infrastructural improvements in Russian Arctic research stations will ensure better logistical support for science activities post-IPY.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Consortium
Another national polar operator

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
Endorsement at national level is proceeding in tandem with international endorsement

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Yes

This is a new project but builds on and benefits from ongoing research by participants on glacier mass balance measurement and modelling

How will the project be organised and managed?
The project will be managed from Bristol (Wadham and Payne) but will exploit existing management structures for Arctic glacier mass balance such as the IASC Working Group on Arctic Glaciology (IASC-WAG). Since this research has strong links to the IASC-WAG IPY bid, we would anticipate that project management would proceed in tandem. For example, there would be attendance by key participants at the annual IASC-WAG meeting. In addition, we will have our own tri-annual workshops for internal project management/organisation. We will establish a dedicated project web site, where preliminary results and progress reports will be made available to collaborators.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
We will engage fully in existing science outreach initiatives from Bristol University. We also have strong links with the BBC natural history centre in Bristol and will aim to gain media coverage of our work (e.g. radio/TV documentaries). We will also take advantage of the IASC-WAG IPY outreach initiatives.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
We will make full use of existing glaciological data banks for our final datasets, for example, the World Data Centre for Glaciology (Boulder, Colorado). During the project duration, data will be made available to collaborators on the project website.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
The main stream of funding will be sought from the UK Natural Environment Research Council. Where possible we would hope to share field costs with other funded IPY projects, supported by non-UK national research councils.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Jemma Wadham
Bristol Glaciology Centre, Bristol University
Dept of Geographical Sciences
University Road, Bristol
BS81SS
UK

Tel: +44 (0)117 9289069
Mobile: no
Fax: +44 (0)117 9287878
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation