Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Diagnostic and modelling study of the response of the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes to climate variations in the tropics  (Role of the Tropics in High Latitude Climate Trends)

Outline
The degree to which the Arctic region is affected by external influences is under intense debate due to the recent concomitant trends in tropical temperatures and Arctic sea level pressure. Some modelling studies strongly suggest that the gradual warming of the Indian Ocean has forced the well-recognized, positive trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). However, in the last decade or so, the NAO trend has reversed despite the ongoing warming in the tropics and earlier in the 20 century, the NAO exhibited decadal swings in its phase with no particular connection to the Indian Ocean. If we are to understand the sensitivity of the Arctic region to forcing from other regions, particularly from the tropics and be able to predict future trends, whether natural or anthropogenic, in the climate over the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes, we must resolve the behaviour of the system over the last century and before. The climate modelling group at the Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) recently conducted several integrations of SST forced and coupled GCMs, which begin with the earliest available global SST data (1856) and reach the present. We propose to use these model runs to investigate the long-term variability of the Arctic climate system (surface pressure, winds, temperature and hydrological cycle variables) and its link to the tropics, compare the models with observations (historical and proxies), and conduct sensitivity experiments to determine the role of local and remote forcing. In addition we will seek to apply to the same problem, model simulations generated by our collaborators at the NASA – Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) and the NOAA – Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) as part of their contribution to the IPCC process. This use of a large suite of model results, forced in different ways, will allow us to assess the effect of direct radiative forcing and local air-sea coupling in the Arctic in comparison to the influence of remote forcing.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
This study will provide a comprehensive analysis of observations and model results to address crucial questions regarding the relative role of remote and local forcing of the Arctic climate system.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
This study will involve mainly American scientists form LDEO, GFDL, and GISS.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
None. This is a data analysis and modelling study.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: Not Relevant            
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Our current computational facilities are sufficient for this project. We will seek funding to support salaries, publications, and travel of the PIs.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
No infrastructure is involved but model data sets related to the study will be made publicly available with easy online access.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
National agency

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
No - This a process of being considered by the US National Committee for IPY

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
No

This is mainly an extension of an existing modelling activity. Additional new model integrations to test hypotheses will be generated based on the results of diagnosis of existing datasets

How will the project be organised and managed?
The team of scientists at LDEO are experienced in conducting collaborative studies and have the necessary computer support to perform model runs and diagnostic analyses. In the recent years we have begun collaborative work with GISS and GFDL and are currently working to strengthen them.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
We will emphasize the involvement of postdoctoral research scientists, graduate students, and undergraduate interns (through the National LDEO internship program). Outreach will be achieved in the form of participation in scientific meetings, scientific publications, development of web sites for a variety of target audiences, public presentations (LDEO lecture series and open-house activities), working with highschool programs for excellence in science, as well as frequent contacts with print, broadcast and online media.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
All computer model data set related to the study will be made publicly available immediately via the internet for easy online access, viewing and analysis.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
National funding will be sought by writing proposals to the US funding agencies, NSF, NOAA, and NASA.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Doherty Senior Scientist Yochanan Kushnir
LDEO, Columbia Univeristy
61 Route 9W
Palisades, NY
10964
USA

Tel: 845-365-8669
Mobile: no
Fax: 845-365-8736
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation