Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

CANADA #219: Dynamics and Chemistry of the Arctic Middle Atmosphere  (CMAM-IPY)

Outline
The polar vortex is the main feature of the winter-spring middle atmosphere (stratosphere and mesosphere), and the springtime loss of ozone in the polar vortex due to anthropogenic chlorine is one of the most recognized environmental issues of the past century. While the overall mechanism of polar ozone loss is largely understood, the ability to accurately predict it using Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) remains elusive. Polar ozone loss in the Arctic is often disrupted by the breakdown of the polar vortex, a phenomenon known as a Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW). While SSWs are a prevalent feature of the Arctic winter stratosphere they are not yet fully understood. In particular, recent research has shown interesting evidence of coupling between SSWs and the troposphere below as well as with the mesosphere above. This proposal will focus upon improving our understanding of the coupling within the Arctic troposphere-stratosphere-mesosphere system during SSWs, including both dynamical and chemical aspects. Polar ozone loss is associated with a complex interplay of chemistry, dynamics and radiation, so that progress in this field involves not only measurements but also the use of numerical models. In this work, the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) is used to analyse SSWs during the IPY using a 3D-Var data assimilation scheme. Given the importance of long time scales and planetary-scale waves in the lower stratosphere, it is necessary to use a global model such as CMAM. Because the CMAM extends from the ground to above the mesopause and includes comprehensive and coupled chemistry, radiation and dynamics, it is particularly well suited to investigate the coupling between the stratosphere, troposphere, and mesosphere during these events. CMAM is coupled to CMC’s operational 3D Variational assimilation scheme and hence can provide an estimate of the global atmosphere using operational measurements such as radiosondes, aircraft, surface stations and satellite instruments (AMSU, OSIRIS, ACE, etc.). Both dynamic and species information can be assimilated. Observations from measurement campaigns during IPY can also be included. Detailed estimates of the stratospheric state during SSWs will be used for diagnostic analyses. In addition to furthering our knowledge of the Arctic polar vortex, this proposal would leave a legacy of a four-dimensional dynamical-chemical analysis of the atmospheric state from the ground to the mesopause during IPY. This analysis could be used by other investigators, either for diagnostic studies or for experimentalists to complement their own analyses, and would be archived at an existing facility, the CMAM-FDAM (Facility for Data Assimilation and Modelling)

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
A comprehensive four-dimensional coupled chemical-dynamical analysis of the Arctic region from the ground to above the mesopause will provide an unprecedented picture of the current state of the Arctic atmospheric environment (theme 1). Understanding the impact of Arctic dynamics on ozone, given anthropogenic chlorine loading, will further our understanding of chemical change in the Arctic stratosphere (theme 2). Because the Arctic atmosphere is affected by global-scale circulation, which acts to couple the troposphere, stratosphere and mesosphere, this research will explore polar-global linkages and interactions (theme 3).

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
This proposal will contribute to the international SPARC-IPY proposal. SPARC will use its regular meetings to coordinate international contributions to the SPARC-IPY. The data assimilation component of the SPARC-IPY would be coordinated by the SPARC working group on data assimilation (which is led by Dr. Polavarapu).

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
No field activity is involved. However, CMAM-IPY would use measurements from IPY field work in its assimilations. Links with measurement campaigns such as envisioned by CANDAC will be necessary.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
The principal logistic support is the CMAM-FDAM, which is an MSC-university consortium funded by the Canadian Space Agency. It involves a core group of researchers and relies on use of MSC supercomputing facilities as well as complex computer codes

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
As the project will use existing infrastructure rather than develop it, it cannot be said to leave a legacy in this respect. However, it will leave a legacy in terms of the analysed data.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
National agency

There is existing committed support provided through the CSA funding (and MSC in-kind support) of the CMAM-FDAM until 2007, and further funding to extend and enhance this activity will be sought through the new Canadian SPARC (C-SPARC) network proposal (with Ted Shepherd as P.I.) — see below.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
Yes. CMAM-IPY will be an integral component of SPARC-IPY, the planned international IPY program for the SPARC Project (a core project of the WCRP). An EoI for SPARC-IPY has been submitted to the International IPY Committee on behalf of the SPARC Project.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
No

This proposal is one component of another proposal to CFCAS and possibly NSERC: the Canadian SPARC (C-SPARC) network (with support also from the CSA). The PI of C-SPARC is Prof. Ted Shepherd and its themes are (1) Chemistry-climate coupling, (2) Detection, attribution and prediction of stratospheric change, (3) Stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling, and (4) Stratospheric and mesospheric data assimilation. C-SPARC funding would cover 2006-11.

How will the project be organised and managed?
It will be organised and managed following the C-SPARC structure. That is, there will be a Scientific Steering Committee to oversee the project. In addition, C-SPARC is built on the existing CMAM-FDAM funded by the CSA for 2004-7 and possibly beyond that. The CMAM-FDAM also has an advisory panel which will meet annually to review progress. Semi-annual reports to the CSA are also provided.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
As appropriate, results of research will be disseminated the open literature and at national and international conferences and workshops. Reports may be written and published in international publications such as the SPARC Newsletter.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
An outcome of the proposal is a set of analyses of the atmospheric state from the ground to the mesopause during the IPY. These would be archived by the existing CMAM-FDAM, and be accessible to researchers once available. Either the whole or part of the period would be covered.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
The work contained in this proposal is a planned component of the Canadian SPARC network proposal to CFCAS and, pending the outcome of the NSERC moratorium on new networks, possibly to NSERC. The component of the C-SPARC budget relevant to this activity would be approximately $500K/year. The Canadian SPARC proposal builds on existing funding for the CMAM-FDAM from the CSA ($465K for 2004-7).

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Soraja Polavarapu
Meteorological Service of Canada
4905 Dufferin Street
Downsview, Ontario
M3H 5T4
Canada

Tel: 416 739 4887
Mobile: no
Fax: 416 739 4221
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation