Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

CANADA #221: Comparative habitat use of lemmings: a leading indicator of climate change?  

Outline
Global climate change is alterating the quality and distribution of Arctic habitats, and the dynamics of the species that occupy them. It is thus crucial to develop both conceptual and empirical models that will forecast the influences of climate and habitat change. Effective models must be based on leading, rather than trailing, indicators of change. Monitoring programs on the dynamics of long-lived species fail as leading indicators. Such studies can detect change, but the lifespan and lagged dynamics of the species may often restrict detection until after habitats have been degraded. Studies of habitat selection and patch use on short-lived species are likely to be much more effective because the species’ behavioural responses to habitat change operate on almost instantaneous time scales. Comparative studies, assessing habitat selection of such species across a range of environments, can foretell how they will respond to future habitat change. Suitable model species will be well known habitat selectors with a circumpolar distribution and a large latitudinal range. Lemmings fit the bill. Lemmings are among the best studied of all Arctic wildlife, their cyclical dynamics are legend, and their populations are easily monitored. Recent studies by my research team demonstrate that lemming habitat selection and dispersal coincides with expectations from habitat-selection theory, and that habitat choice may account for otherwise unexplained patterns in population dynamics. I propose to use our knowledge of lemming habitat selection to develop leading indicators of habitat change. We will take advantage of the International Polar Year to expand our assessments of lemming habitat use, and to establish permanent assessment sites, across a variety of locations in the Canadian Arctic. We will collaborate with international colleagues to integrate lemming patch use with habitat selection. Our plan is to assess whether there is a mechanistically-based geographical gradient in lemming habitat use that can serve as a reference for future habitat change. We are not interested in simply documenting differences in habitat use that may occur from climate change, but are focussed instead on predicting how change will influence the dynamics and distribution of key Arctic species. Thus, we will use dispersal and adapative habitat selection to document the current pattern of habitat use and its connection to lemming dynamics in a variety of locations. We will then use that reference pattern, and its tight connection to mechanism, to associate changes in habitat use at other sites with their expected future influences on these and other species of Arctic wildlife.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?

What international collaboration is involved in this project?

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?

How will the project be organised and managed?

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Estimated cost $50,000-$100,000 for two years. No secure sources as yet.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr. / Professor Douglas Morris
Lakehead University, Department of Biology
955 Oliver Road
Thunderbay, ON
P7B 5E1
Canada

Tel: 807-343-8162
Mobile: no
Fax: 807-346-7796
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation