Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

CANADA #9: The role of large-scale atmospheric teleconnections in northern Canada’s hydrologic cycle  (Atmospheric teleconnections and northern Canada’s hydrologic cycle)

Outline
The Arctic will experience some of the more dramatic environmental changes in the 21st century as surface air temperatures continue to rise in response to anthropogenic forcing. This will lead to an intensification of the Arctic hydrologic cycle. At regional scales, however, it remains unknown how precipitation, evaporation, and river discharge are evolving in a warmer world. This study will investigate the role of large-scale atmospheric anomalies in the Canadian northern hydrologic cycle with a focus on the IPY. Specifically, we will address the following science questions: 1) What are the dominant large-scale atmospheric teleconnections that affect northern Canada? 2) What is the role of these teleconnections and their relative contributions to the atmospheric and surface water budgets of high-latitude river basins in a changing environment? 3) How will the meteorological and hydrological variables differ from their mean state during the IPY and how will they evolve in the near future? To answer these important science questions, the following work will be conducted according to the proposed timeline: -2006-2007: Historical meteorological and hydrological data will be analysed. Relationships between atmospheric teleconnections such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the state of the hydrologic budget over northern Canada will be evaluated. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis (ERA40) data set will provide global meteorological data that will be supplemented by observed river discharge from the Canadian Hydrometric Database (HYDAT) and observed precipitation and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia. The analysis will cover the period 1964-2004 for which spatial and temporal coverage is best and focus on the Mackenzie and Hudson Bay river basins. -2007-2008: During the IPY intensive observing period, real-time monitoring of the atmospheric teleconnection indexes and of the hydrologic budget in northern Canada will be maintained. The daily and recent state of atmospheric and hydrologic variables, including daily assessments of their deviations from the mean, will be reported on our website to provide other researchers this valuable information. -2008-2009: A diagnostic study of the atmospheric and hydrologic state over northern Canada during the IPY will be conducted. This work will focus on the anomalies during the IPY from the mean state (1964-2004). An assessment of trends in the atmospheric teleconnection indexes and in the hydrometeorological variables will provide insights on the possible future state of northern Canada’s hydrologic cycle.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
The proposed work will provide a better understanding of the past, current, and potential future state of the Canadian high-latitude hydrologic budget. Specifically, the study will address the role of global linkages through large-scale atmospheric teleconnections and the surface and atmospheric water budget of the Mackenzie and Hudson Bay basins. Climate change in northern Canada will be assessed from historical precipitation and river discharge data to determine trends in these quantities. The current status of the atmosphere (e.g., teleconnection indexes) and of the hydrologic cycle will be determined using real-time observations of sea-level pressure, precipitation, river runoff, etc., during the IPY.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
The project will be led by Stephen Déry (University of Northern British Columbia) but will involve collaborations with Eric F. Wood (Princeton University) and Martin Lacroix (National Water Research Institute, Water and Climate Impacts Research Centre, University of Victoria).

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
No field work is planned for this project. The focus area will include major rivers basins of northern Canada, including the Mackenzie and the Hudson Bay Basins.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
National agency

See details on funding at 3.5.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
No

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Nes

The proposed work will constitute an autonomous project but interaction and links to related projects will be actively sought. Specifically, we will interact with other groups examining such processes as Siberian river discharge to obtain a clearer picture of the pan-Arctic hydrologic cycle.

How will the project be organised and managed?
Déry will spearhead the project in collaboration with Wood and Lacroix. Déry will oversee a graduate student (at the Master’s or Ph.D. level) at UNBC who will conduct research into the atmospheric teleconnections that influence northern Canada and its hydrologic cycle. Wood will provide access to high-resolution global land surface datasets and provide guidance on the research. Lacroix will facilitate access to Canadian river data, especially real-time data during the IPY, and provide insights on the work. Communication between collaborators will be maintained through e-mail and telecoms, as well as through an annual meeting.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
A website will be created to disseminate the goals of the project and provide access to data generated by the study. Results will also be disseminated through publications in international journals and talks at conferences. Furthermore, our achievements will be presented to the general public at an annual UNBC open house and other public forums held in northern Canada.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
All data generated through this study will be archived at UNBC and made available to other researchers through the World-Wide Web after the data have been quality-controlled.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
An application for funding will be submitted to NSERC during 2005 to support the project. Funds will help support a graduate student, supply adequate equipment for data analysis and management (i.e. computers), and cover basic research expenses. The expected total funded amount is 105,000$ over a period of 3 years.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
Although I currently hold a position as a visiting scientist at Princeton University in the United States, I will begin a new faculty position at UNBC on 1 July 2005. My current address at Princeton is indicated below and my future address at UNBC is 3333 University Way, Environmental Science and Environmental Engineering Programs, UNBC, Prince George, BC, V2N 4Z9, Canada.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Stephen Déry
Princeton University C-326 Equad
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Princeton, New Jersey
8544
United States

Tel: (609) 258-6383
Mobile: no
Fax: (609) 258-2799
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation