Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Glacial Arctic Modeling Experiment: Modeling Ice Shelves in the Pleistocene Arctic Ocean  (GAME (Glacial Arctic Modeling Experiment))

Outline
New, compelling seafloor data indicate that portions or the entirety of the Arctic Ocean were covered during some Pleistocene glaciations by floating ice shelves several hundred meters thick. These data, together with greatly improved reconstructions of Eurasian and Laurentide ice sheets, raise the need to model glaciological conditions in the Arctic Ocean during maximal glaciations. Because collection of empirical data from the Arctic Ocean requires formidable amounts of time and money, we propose a topical modeling approach that will allow integration of acquired data and development of strategies for further research. This multidisciplinary project aims to develop a comprehensive model of ice shelves in the glacial Arctic Ocean, constrained by up-to-date geological data from the arctic perimeter and ocean floor. The proposed modeling experiments will combine numerical models of land-based ice sheets, floating ice shelves, and ocean circulation in the Arctic. The algorithms for these models have been developed and successfully tested by the participants and collaborators of the proposed project. The groundtruthing data-focused project participants will secure state-of-the-art boundary conditions from their own investigations and through extensive collaboration with European and North American glacial geologists.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Results of this project will bear on fundamental aspects of climate change in the Arctic, sea-level history, and the stability of ocean-bound ice sheets. Specific aspects of this research will investigate the probability of a pan-Arctic ice shelf, potential scenarios of asymmetric glaciations on the American and Eurasian sides of the Arctic, and the potential effects of large arctic ice shelves on the circulation and sea-ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean and North Atlantic. Results are also expected to improve understanding of the stability of ice sheets with a large floating component such as the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
The proposed project involves scientific collaboration between USA, Sweden, UK, and Canada. This includes planning, model comparison, scientific evaluation of data, and publication of results. This project has a direct relevance to various components of the proposed IPY program Arctic Paleoclimate and its Extremes (APEX).

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
No field activity is planned.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?

How will the project be organised and managed?
This project is a self-managed activity organized by a small group of PIs from the Ohio State University, University of California Santa Cruz (UCSC), US Naval Postgraduate School (NPS), Stockholm University, and University of Bristol. The US PIs have a long record of establishing and managing projects with the NSF Office of Polar Programs. Most of the modeling computation will be performed at UCSC and NPS whose proximity will allow an efficient and economical implementation of the project. Coordination of research will be maintained by annual meetings of all PIs and invited collaborators at UCSC or NPS.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
The proposed project involves six universities which ensures the wide involvement of students and a broad dissemination of results. Demonstration of project results will include an interactive 3-D visualization of modeled data combined with geologic and oceanographic settings. This innovative approach is very advantageous for popularization of Earth Science research.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
The data will be submitted to the National Geophysical Data Center within two years of their generation. We will develop a web site dedicated to this project and will make preliminary data available there within six months of the completion of processing.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Funding for model computation, meetings, and salary of US PIs have been requested in a proposal to the US NSF.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
This project links up closely with the APEX (Arctic Paleoclimate and its EXtremes). Two large components of APEX, ‘cold extremes’ and ‘glacio-dynamic extremes’ are especially relevant to our proposed modeling experiment. Project meetings will be tied with the Fall AGU conferences and APEX meetings to combine travel for project discussion and data presentation.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr. (Research Scientist) Leonid Polyak
Byrd Polar Research Center, Ohio State University
1090 Carmack Rd
Columbus, Ohio
43210
USA

Tel: 1-614-292-2602
Mobile: no
Fax: 1-614-292-4697
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation