Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

CANADA #253: Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems in the Baffin-Labrador Region  (Arctic-Subarctic Linkages)

Outline
Climate change in the Arctic is resulting in ice melting and increased freshwater export to the North Atlantic which will impact on ocean circulation and marine ecosystems. The influence of these changes will be propagated south to subArctic regions such as the northern Labrador Sea/Shelf and farther south. The subArctic waters are among the most productive in the world’s ocean, supporting major commercial fisheries and diverse populations of seabirds and marine mammals some of which are designated vulnerable or endangered. Marine zooplankon underpin these ecosystems and understanding how climate-modified ocean circulation will effect their distribution and abundance will be key in detecting and predicting climate change impacts. The biological focus of this study will be the sources and variability of zooplankton to the Labrador Shelf/Slope. Three species of copepod dominate the biomass of the zooplankton: Calanus glacialis and C. hyperboreus (Arctic species) and C. finmarchicus (a boreal species). All three overwinter at depth, so the LSH must be re-populated each year from deep waters. C. glacialis and C. hyperboreus have 2 or 3 year life cycles, so that individuals may originate from relatively distant sources. C. finmarchicus has an annual life history, so its source population is probably closer. Arctic waters flow southward on the western side of Davis Strait, mixing in Hudson Strait with the outflow of Hudson Bay and form the cold fresh Arctic waters flowing south over the Labrador shelf and upper slope. There are also inputs from the north central Labrador Sea (NCLS) and Greenland Slope) GSL regions. These regions are in turn fed by the West Greenland Current system, which brings a mixture of relatively warm salty Sub-Polar Atlantic water and cold fresh Arctic East Greenland water northward along the Greenland shelf and slope. The associations between the two Arctic water inputs and the three Calanus species are largely unknown, but an important source for C. finmarchicus to the LSH is probably the NCLS and GSL region north of 60oN, where there are intense phytoplankton spring blooms every year, which provide abundant food that fuels high recruitment rates for C. finmarchicus. Satellite imagery has revealed the generation of strong eddies in this region which, together with the northerly flow of Sub-Arctic water that keeps it ice free at the time when C. finmarchicus is reproductively active, may contribute to the high productivity. Regional modes of climate variability, such as the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, cause changes in the characteristics, distribution and circulation of all of the water masses in the region. Our current understanding of the role of this variability in the supply of Calanus spp. to the LSH is limited. CPR (Continuous Plankton Recorder) observations on the Newfoundland Shelf (downstream of the LSH) have shown that the abundance of both Arctic Calanus species was low in the 1960s, a period when the NAO index was generally negative and the shelf was warm, and increased throughout the 1990s, a period when the NAO index was strongly positive and the Labrador Sea and shelf were cold and fresh. Since 2001 the NAO index has returned to more average values and waters have warmed, but Arctic Calanus species levels have remained high. The responses of these populations to climate variability and change are obviously complex, and probably involve influences of remote processes in the higher Arctic. Significant influences of past increases in freshwater fluxes have been shown on deep convection in the Labrador Sea, on the North Atlantic’s thermohaline circulation, and on the advectively-dominated Baffin-Labrador Shelf. Recent changes in sea ice extent, and evidence of Pacific water and species in the NW Atlantic probably reflect a changing ocean regime and marine ecosystem. This project will build on recent and proposed studies in the upstream source regions to evaluate the contributions and variability of different advective pathways to the freshwater/stratification and supply of nutrients and plankton to the Baffin-Labrador ecosystem, and identify potential impacts of climate change. The project will complement the Freshwater Flux (Prinsenberg et al.), Integrated Arctic Ocean Observing System (Dickson et al.), Ocean Circulation and Ecosystem Impacts themes of IPY by drawing on the results of these programs to address climate change impacts on the Labrador/Baffin Shelf ecosystem – one of the focal regions of ESSAS (Ecosystem Studies of SubArctic Seas, Drinkwater). In this project we will carry out a number of inter-related collaborative activities to describe the influence of variability in water mass properties and flows in the subArctic confluence zone in the Baffin-Labrador region on the sources, processes and variability of zooplankton supply to the Labrador Shelf and Baffin ecosystems, and to identify impacts of climate change on the system. (1) Hydrographic/biological/chemical surveys in the NCLS and GSL regions in May (spring bloom period) 2007, and in these regions and Davis Strait, Hudson Strait and the northern LSH in July (peak period of Calanus spp. abundance) 2008. These surveys will be coordinated with upstream surveys in Davis Strait and Baffin Bay (IPY #682, Canada #102, Prinsenberg et al.), downstream surveys on the Labrador/Newfoundland Shelves as part of the DFO Atlantic Zone Monitoring program, and the annual DFO occupation of the AR7W line. Flow pathways will be identified from water mass properties, tracers, geostrophic calculations and remote sensing data, and the surveys will allow an evaluation of the oceanographic changes in this area since the 1960s when comprehensive hydrographic surveys were previously conducted. (2) Moored measurement program from May 2007 to July 2008 at key locations along the major flow pathways which, together with Davis Strait moorings (IPY #682, Canada #102, Prinsenberg et al.), Hudson Strait moorings (IPY# , Pickart), GSL mooring (Bower, WHOI) and Lab Slope mooring (BIO), will provide time series of flow and water property variability on major pathways over one year. (3) Biological survey component on US vessel in fall. (4) Carbon cycle component which, combined with proposed programs in Barrow Strait, Davis Strait and Hudson Bay, will provide coverage of the confluence zone and its major inflows (5) Interpretation with others. By simultaneously mapping zooplankton distributions and the physical environment, the project will identify the sources and pathways for the different zooplankton species and key associated processes which will provide basis for projecting their variability associated with climate change. Interpretations of the physical environmental variability will be carried out in collaboration with ongoing monitoring programs in the Arctic, Hudson Strait, Labrador Shelf/Sea and West Greenland. Satellite altimetry and colour satellite imagery will be used to help interpret the field measurements and to develop indices for circulation and biological variables. The Canadian Argo program will ensure the presence of operating profiling floats in this region throughout this period.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
1. To determine the present environmental status of Arctic regions of the Northwest Atlantic by quantifying their spatial and temporal variability. • Description of the present-day physical climate of the subarctic including ocean circulation, and inputs and outputs of mass, heat, freshwater, nutrients and zooplankton. • Description and understanding of the seasonal variation in the Baffin-Labrador region, including warm Irminger Water and Arctic inflows and their impacts on biological productivity and species composition. 2. To quantify, and understand, past and present environmental and human change in this polar region in order to improve predictions. • Baseline physical and biological conditions • Changes over past 4 decades through comparisons with previous surveys 3. To advance our understanding of Arctic - global interactions by studying teleconnections on all scales. • Subarctic – Arctic connections

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
Some of these collaborations already exist; others will be developed before submission of the full proposal. • Institute for Marine Research, Bergen, Norway (K. Drinkwater, NORCAN, a comparative study of climate variability on the marine ecosystems of the Labrador/Newfoundland region and the Barents Sea/Norwegian Shelf) • Institute for Marine Research, Bergen, Norway (K. Drinkwater, GLOBEC, ESSAS, effects of climate variability and change on subarctic ecosysterms) • Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Lowestoft, UK (R. Dickson, ASOF and coupled Arctic-Subpolar North Atlantic variability) • Dunstaffnage Marine Laboratory, Scotland, UK (K. Willis, zooplankton as tracers of abiotic processes) • Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, MA, USA (F. Straneo, R. Pickart monitoring the Arctic/Atlantic freshwater exchange through Davis Strait - Labrador Sea observing system) • *University of Washington, WA, USA (C. Lee et al., measurements of volume, freshwater and ice flux variability in Davis Strait) • Greenland Institute of Natural Resources, Nuuk, Greenland (S. Rysgaard, ecosystem processes, Greenland Shelf)

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Northern Labrador Sea, Davis Strait, Hudson Strait, Northern Labrador Shelf.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: Surveys in May 2007, July 2008, Sept. 2008      Moorings from spring 2007 to summer 2008      
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Surveys and analyses • Ship time - 10 days in spring 2007 ($300K) + 15 days in summer 2008 ($450K) - $750K in total • Field OT - $50K in spring 2007 + $75k in spring 2008 - $125K in total • 25 days in Sept. 2008 OT + travel - $30K in total • Sample/data analysis, O&M and travel costs $120K in 2007 + $120K in 2008 + $110K in 2009 - $350K in total Moored measurements • $100k in 2007, $20K in 2008, $30K in 2009 - $150K in total Satellite altimetry and remote sensing • $10K in 2008, $20K in 2009 - $30K in total Other • liaison/collaboration with groups in Newfoundland and Quebec - $30K in 2008, $20K in 2009 – $50K in total Excluding ship time, the total for 2007 is $270K, for 2008 is $285K and for 2009 is $180K for a 3 year total of $735K. As part of the sample/data analysis funding it is anticipated that 4-6 contracts would be let for a total allocation of ca. 2 PYs per year for 2007, 2008 and 2009.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
• Unique physical and biological data sets to initialise and evaluate ocean climate and ecosystem models for the coupled Arctic-Atlantic system. • Enhanced monitoring of the northern Labrador Sea duinrg the IPY campaign to allow investigation of Arctic-Subarctic linkages • First measurements of zooplankton-water mass associations in the Labrador Shelf source waters. • First long-term moored current meter measurements in an important area of the Labrador Shelf source waters. • Improved capability for inferring variability from remote sensing indices

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Own national polar operator
Own support
Other sources of support

It is anticipated that DFO would cover a portion of the vessel costs through coordination of the surveys with other field programs and operations. Most of the required equipment would be supplied by DFO, but some support for vessels and equipment would be requested from Canadian government funding for IPY programs.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
No

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?


Coordinated with other Arctic/Subarctic and Subpolar programs • Freshwater Flux in the Canadian Polar Regions, and Ecosystem components of Canadian IPY– e.g. MERICA – DFO, Quebec programme in Hudson Bay • ASOF Davis Strait Gateway moorings • NWAFC (DFO, Nfld.) project on variability in zooplankton supply to the Newfoundland Shelf and Grand Bank (P. Pepin) • Sampling for AZMP (the Atlantic Zone Monitoring Program) by NWAFC on the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves (P. Pepin, E. Colbourne) • Ecosystem/physical nuercial modelling in the NW subactic Atlantic – MUN (Brad de Young) • Annual West Greenland surveys by Denmark/Greenland and Germany • Annual AR7W DFO (BIO) surveys • GLOBEC – ESSAS • NORCAN

How will the project be organised and managed?
Lead and managed by the Ocean Science and Ecosystem research Divisions of the Bedford Institute of Oceanography

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
Quality-controlled datasets would be provided to national archives, and made available to collaborative projects. A project website would be maintained. Progress reports and results would be provided at various fora.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
The project would use the established data management, archival and dissemination infrastructure of the Ocean Sciences Division Data Management group, the Ecosystem Research Division Data Management group and the Canadian Marine Environmental Data Service (MEDS).

How is it proposed to fund the project?
A portion of the vessel costs and most of the required equipment are expected to be available from DFO. Some funding for the remainder of the project could be available from existing DFO resources, but substantial resources would be requested from Canadian government funding for IPY programs.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
The project: • could be a Canadian contribution to ESSAS. • would complement an upcoming study by NWAFC on the supply of zooplankton to the Newfoundland Shelf and Grand Bank, and the AZMP. • would complement the IPY Freshwater Flux program, in connecting this program to the Subpolar North Atlantic and CLIVAR and other observational programs. • builds on a 40 year set of hydrographic and 10 year set of biological observations on the AR7W line, which have implicated the northern Labrador Sea as a biological “hot spot”. • could proceed successfully with a subset of the indicated elements and a modified set of goals and outcomes.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Erica Head
Biological Oceanography Section (BOS), Ecosystem Research Division (ERD)
P.O. Box 1006
Dartmouth, N.S
B2Y 4A2
Canada

Tel: 902 426-2317
Mobile: no
Fax: 902-426-3711
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation