Expressions of Intent for International Polar Year 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

CANADA #257: Climate Impacts on Freshwater Ice over the Circum-Polar Arctic  

Outline
Ice plays a fundamental role in the biological, chemical, and physical processes of freshwater in cold regions. Its duration and break-up can also impact several economic activities ranging from transportation, to the occurrence and severity of ice-jam flooding. Given its broad ecological and economic significance, scientific concern has been expressed regarding climate change impacts on future freshwater ice regimes. Specifically, interest has focused on the high latitudes where future climate projections indicate amplification in global warming and increases to precipitation. However, due to the complexities and numerous feedbacks in the Arctic climate system, large differences exist in the spatial patterns of these projected changes. These differences could act to intensify impacts in certain areas and perhaps suppress them in others. Furthermore, knowledge of past changes in river and lake ice characteristics over the circum-polar Arctic is rather limited compared to other cryospheric variables such as snow cover and glaciers. The major components of this study include: 1) The characterization of past trends and variability in hydro-climatology over various regions of the circum-polar Arctic during the instrumental period of record. This will include analysis of selected temperature and precipitation variables at a variety of spatial and temporal scales that impact river and lake ice over the Arctic (e.g., snowfall, mid winter melt events, timing of spring and autumn 0°C dates, relevant degree-day indicators). The analysis will also include examination of synoptic circulation patterns and large-scale teleconnection indices associated with the aforementioned trends and variability in hydro-climatic parameters. 2) Using output from several Global Climate Models and available Regional Climate Models, assess the impacts of projected climate change on freshwater ice characteristics over the Arctic. This will involve an assessment of the range of projected changes in the selected temperature and precipitation variables in objective #1 and their potential impacts on freshwater ice over various regions of the circum-polar north. In addition, changes to synoptic circulation patterns and major teleconnection indices impacting Arctic climate will be examined. This project has been approved by an NWRI Branch Director, and clearly addresses Environment Canada and NWRI mandates to carry out “ecosystem-based research and development in the aquatic sciences, generating and disseminating scientific knowledge needed to resolve environmental issues of regional, national or international significance to Canada, and to sustain our natural resources and freshwater ecosystems”.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
This project will make significant advances in the understanding of past and future climate impacts on freshwater ice characteristics over the Arctic. Although previous studies have examined aspects of climate impacts over various areas of the Arctic, none have specifically focussed on relevant surface and synoptic variables impacting river and lake ice over the entire Arctic. Moreover, this study examines the degree of these impacts over several regions spanning the circum-polar north. It will make significant advances in the understanding of past and future northern hydro-climatic systems, and therefore directly addresses the IPY theme of “Current state of the polar environment” and provide improved methods for considering “Change in the polar regions”.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
The study will examine the entire circum-polar Arctic north of 60°N.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 03/07 – 09/09            
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
None

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
No

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Own support

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
Yes - NWRI management has endorsed this study.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
No

The project is an extension of related NWRI studies designed to examine past and future climatologic impacts on the hydrology and ecology of Canada and the Northern Hemisphere. Regional studies have been initiated in the Mackenzie Delta region of Canada through funding from the Mackenzie Gas Project.

How will the project be organised and managed?
Aspects of this study will be managed by EC/NWRI

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
This project will utilize the standard publications routes for dissemination of results.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document?
The project will ensure that strict data management policies are adhered to. Much of the climate station, atmospheric circulation, and GCM data will be available through agencies such as the Meteorological Service of Canada and the Canadian Climate Impact Scenarios group, as well as, NWRI.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Estimates for the components of this study include the following (based on three funding scenarios): 1)Full Funding: Analyses will be completed for the entire circum-polar Arctic; $150K/yr for 3 years 2)Partial Funding: Analyses will be completed for Arctic Canada; $75K/yr for 3 years 3)No New Funding: Continued regional studies of the Mackenzie Delta Region of Canada.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Barrie Bonsal
Environment Canada, National Water Research Institute
11 Innovation Boulevard
Saskatoon, SK
S7N 3H5
Canada

Tel: 306-975-5754
Mobile: no
Fax: 306-975-5143
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation