Expressions of Intent for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Thinning and retreat of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet  (TRAPIS)

Outline
Research at BAS has shown that the Antarctic Peninsula is experiencing stronger warming than anywhere else in the Southern Hemisphere and that as a consequence the ice sheet in this area is rapidly retreating. This proposal will make measurements of glacial change in this region, and develop a new methodology to predict the response of sub-polar glacial systems to climatic change. It will provide an assessment of the recent contribution to sea level rise, and predict the future contribution. 1. We will to use photogrammetric techniques developed at BAS, to estimate thickness change on glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula over a period of ~50 years, by comparing newly acquired photogrammetrywith an archive of aerial photographs. This will add context to satellite measurements of ice thickness change that give wide geographic coverage but cover only short time periods. 2. We will continue collaborative work undertaken at BAS showing that climate is driving of the retreat of >250 floating glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula over the past 50 years and that glaciers area accelerating in response to increasing summer melt. 3. Oversnow levelling lines were established on the Antarctic Peninsula in the 1970s and have been resurveyed twice since then. So far, this study has shown increased snow accumulation at the cold (high) sites and increased melting at warm (low) sites. We propose to re-measure these lines to give a third change measurement. 4. We will develop a methodology for predicting the response of sub-polar systems to changing climatic variables. Once the model is tuned to the past 50 years it will then be driven forward for 100 years using climate scenarios generated by the regional climate models. 5. We will engage non-scientists in the collection of data and in research. We will use archival photographs from recent and historical expedition archives (held at BAS and SPRI) as the basis for the establishment of a record of change. We will distribute copies of photographs to researchers, tourists to the Antarctic Peninsula and give guidance in how to collect accurate repeats of these photographs. The archive generated will be made available via a website and hardcopy publication. This visually striking, and easily interpretable product will provide a unique “draw”, around which we can promote the science behind all the activities within the programme. It will allow a unique level of involvement for many people not normally engaged in science.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
An increased scientific understanding and public awareness of the issues of climate change in Antarctica.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
It is anticipated that this EOI will be grouped with others sharing a general interest in glacial change on the Antarctic Peninsula. We have already discussed collaborative utilisation of logistics resources with these projects.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Antarctic Peninsula

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 11/2006 – 02/2007      11/2007 – 02/2008      11/2008 – 11/2009
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
We will require access to British Antarctic Survey, station and field logistics. We have discussions with other parties aimed at maximising the efficiency of suggested programmes.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
No

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Own national polar operator

Some of the activities have secured funding from British Antarctic Survey core science programmes, others have yet to have secured funding.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
Some of the activities have secured funding from British Antarctic Survey as part of the core science programmes, others are outwith those programmes.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?

Some of the activities have secured funding from British Antarctic Survey as part of the core science programmes, others are outwith those programmes.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The programme will the managed by personnel at British Antarctic Survey, with a designated leader, and could be overseen within a larger IPY cluster.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
Outreach will be achieved using the normal press and media interactions, and directly through activity 5.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document)?
Data will be managed using the normal Natural Environment Research Council protocols utilising the Antarctic Environmental Data Centre. These protocols conform to the letter and spirit of the Antarctic Treaty.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Some of the activities have secured funding from British Antarctic Survey as part of the core science programmes, others are outwith those programmes.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
Although, a form of this expression of interest was submitted to the IPY programme office in October, 2004, administrative misunderstandings mean that this formal EOI was not completed until June, 2005.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr David Glyn Vaughan
British Antarctic Survey
Madingley Road
Cambridge
CB3 0ET
UK

Tel: +44 1223 221643
Mobile: 07729 425260
Fax:
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation

Other Information