Expressions of Intent for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Development of energy-balance model of Earth global climate on the basis of parameters of Antarctic atmosphere (ozone, aerosol), cosmic rays, cloud formation and cosmic particles of ultra high energy (over 1020 eV) monitoring.  (Earth's Climate and cosmic rays effect)

Outline
The main objective of the project is to develop the adequate energy-balance model for the Earth’s climate change on the time scales form several thousands to million years. This energy-balance model of global climate, which is taking into account a nontrivial role of galactic cosmic rays, is described by the fold catastrophe equation relative to the increment of temperature, where galactic cosmic rays and insolation are control parameters. The Earth’s climate forcing by these parameters is not direct but through some hydro-thermo-dynamical characteristics of the “atmosphere-ocean-land” system. Within this framework, the four sub-objective are considered. First, it is proposed to detect the cosmic rays of superhigh energies (>10?20 eV) on the basis of treating the radioemission of the EAS during their introducing to Antarctic ice. The probability of appearing particles with energy 10?20 eV is quite small (~1 particle to square 1 km2 for 100 years). In a case of using all Antarctic ice as a detector, the frequaency of interaction of these particles with ice is ~ 10 for a week. The radioemission of EAS with maximum o frequency of ?1 ?Hz goes from an ice and after reflection from ionosphere it can be detected by antennas of the Antacrctic statins (in particular, station “Academician Vernadsky). In a case of using multichannel receivers iit is possible to detect transition radioemission on frequency ~5MHz, which appears in result of interaction between the eas and ocean water. Second, the track record in different minerals, concentrating on the micas and high-U/Th accessories, is investigated. Third, the model of the greenhouse gases impact on the global and regional climate changes is developed and this impact as input parameter in the EBM is quantified. Fourth, the dynamical theory for teleconnection phenomenon is developed with application to description of the teleconnection process between the tropical process and polar ones on the basis of the interaction between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), on the one hand, and the Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations, on the other hand. The samples from glacial pavements as well as from shielded locations at greater depth are collected. Since it is also expected that samples at different distances from the glacial front have different exposure times, one set should be collected close to the front and another at the maximum distance. The different mineral components are separated using standard-heavy liquid and electromagnetic techniques This allows a first investigation of the etched-track record of surface-intersecting tracks. Ion-irradiation is applied prior to etching in order to allow the etchant to reveal "confined tracks" in the interior of the grains. The resolution of the "confined-track length distribution" is sufficient to distinguish spallation-recoil and induced-fission tracks, resulting from cosmic ray impacts, from the recoil tracks and fossil fission tracks, resulting from in situ radioactive decay. The quantitative theory of the soliton-triplet interaction “planetary soliton of the Hadley cell – complex of atmospheric fronts - wave packet of Rossby solitons” is developed with application to climate modelling. An influence of the polar climate systems on the Europe’s climate within the energy-balance model is studied. The balance-disbalance non-linear approach for modelling the heat-mass transport and atmospheric teleconnection on the basis of numerical solution of the integral differential equations, the conservation laws of atmospheric motion integrals, response functions and multifractal formalism is used. The modified model for cycle of the carbon dioxide, which allows reproducing a season dynamics of the CO2 turnover in the OLA system with account for zonal ocean structure, is developed. The complex meteorological, geophysical measurements using the facility of the Antarctic station “Academic Vernadsky” and Arctic Atmosphere Laboratory (Kola Peninsula) are carried out. The data measured about profiles of the temperature and atmospheric gases and aerosols (H2O, CO2, O3, etc.) are analyzed by the wavelet decomposition.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Developing the astrophysical energy-balance approach to the Earth’s system climate modelling and establishing its connection with the ice age rhythm. Discovering and validating the adequate mechanism for influence of orbital parameter variation on the Earth climate system and searching new stochastic resonant effects. Developing an adequate procedure of accounting for a turbulent heat flux in the Earth climate system generated by flux of the galactic cosmic and solar particles. Applying the astrophysical energy-balance model to explanation of the experimental data concerning variations of paleotemperature. Discovering and studying genesis of the fractal dimensions for system of "Spectrum of the turbulent pulsation of the cosmic plasmas – Spectrum of galaxy cosmic rays - Turbulent pulsation in the atmosphere". Modelling the variability of the Earth climate system as opened stochastic self-organized one at different time and space scales and establishing new links between different physical processes in the Solar-Earth system. Detecting the cosmic rays of superhigh energies (>10?20 eV) on the basis of treating the radioemission of the EAS during their introducing to Antarctic ice (using all Antarctic ice as a detector). The radioemission of EAS with maximum o frequency of ?1 ?Hz goes from an ice and after reflection from ionosphere it can be detected by antennas of the Antacrctic statins (in particular, station “Academician Vernadsky). In a case of using multichannel receivers speech is about detecting transition radioemission on frequency ~5MHz, which appears in result of interaction between the eas and ocean water. Collecting samples from glacial pavements as well as from shielded locations at greater depth. Since it is also expected that samples at different distances from the glacial front have different exposure times, one set should be collected close to the front and another at the maximum distance. The different mineral components are separated using standard-heavy liquid and electromagnetic techniques. The mineral fractions are mounted in epoxy-resin and the grain surfaces polished and etched. This allows a first investigation of the etched-track record of surface-intersecting tracks. Discrimination of the different track families is based on track-length measurements. For this purpose, ion-irradiation is applied prior to etching in order to allow the etchant to reveal "confined tracks" in the interior of the grains. These tracks are not truncated by The surface, so that their full etchable lengths can be measured; the confined track length distribution possesses much greater resolution than that of surface-intersecting tracks. According to the preceding range considerations, the resolution of the "confined-track length distribution" is sufficient to distinguish spallation-recoil and induced-fission tracks, resulting from cosmic ray impacts, from the recoil tracks and fossil fission tracks, resulting from in situ radioactive decay. Developing advanced complex hydrodynamical and stochastic approach to modelling the climate system of the OLA (ocean-land-atmosphere) with notation of the climate as multi-component random functional in the OLA space-time. Developing the quantitative theory of the soliton-triplet interaction “planetary soliton of the Hadley cell - complex of atmospheric fronts – wave packet of Rossby solitons” with application to climate modelling. Studying an influence of the polar climate systems on the Europe’s climate within the energy-balance model. Using the balance-disbalance non-linear approach for modelling the heat-mass transport and atmospheric teleconnection on the basis of numerical solution of the integral differential equations, the conservation laws of atmospheric motion integrals, response functions and multifractal formalism. Estimating the horizontal heat and mass transport processes between the equatorial and polar zones and vertical processes of radiative-convective heat and mass transfer, among them the greenhouse effect of atmospheric gases and aerosols (H2O, CO2, NO2, O3, etc.). Searching the chaotic scenarios in the OLA system and global greenhouse gases variations. Developing the modified model for cycle of the carbon dioxide, which allows reproducing a season dynamics of the CO2 turnover in the OLA system with account for zonal ocean structure. Estimating a dependence of the CO2 transfer through the boundary between atmosphere and ocean upon temperature of water and air, wind velocity, buffer mechanism of the CO2 dissolution. Carrying out the complex meteorological, geophysical measurements using the facility of the Antarctic station “Academic Vernadsky”. Creating new neural networks approach for geophysical dataset processing and numeral realization of above developed global models with elements of self-training, self-adaptation, initial data filtering. Analyzing measured data about profiles of the temperature and atmospheric gases and aerosols (H2O, CO2, O3, etc.) by wavelet decomposition. Creating advanced land-space spectrometer for defining of above cited parameters. Carrying out the complex measurements of the profiles of distribution of atmospheric gases and aerosols (H2O, CO2, NO2, O3 etc.) in the Arctic with using apparatus of the Arctic Atmosphere Laboratory. Using data obtained discovering and justification the quantitative link of the Arctic and Antarctic atmospheric processes in the global circulation system. Comparative studies of Space Weather influence on atmospheric processes in Arctic and Antarctic. Modelling an influence of the Arctic and Antarctic region atmospheric processes on the Europe’s climate with account of the dynamical processes caused by Solar Activity and Cosmic Rays in those regions.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
1 Ukraine; Kiev National University and Ukrainian Antarctic Centre 2. Ukraine; Odessa National Polytechnic University 3. Ukraine; Odessa State Environmental University and Innovative Geosciences Research Centre 4. Russia; Polar Geophysical Institute and Arctic Atmosphere Laboratory of Russian Academy of Sciences

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Ukrainian Antarctic station “Academician Vernadsky”

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: 01/2007 – 12/2008            

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
The major facilities and infrastructure are given below: Existing field stations, Ice strengthened research ship, Ice-breaker , Satellite, Radar, Antennas. These resources can be usefully shared with other projects

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
The different equipment and devices on the Ukrainian Antarctic Station “Academician Vernadsky”

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Own national polar operator
National agency

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
Yes - The project will ultimately be subject to assessment by National (and possibly International) funding agencies. It is planning to establish coordination with other research tems within the IPY 2007-2008 at international level.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?

The project is the further principally new development of the existing scientific activity of the Ukrainian Antarctic Centre.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The project will be self-managed, part of an existing programme of the Ukrainian Antarctic Centre that has an established management structure. The proposal has realistic plan for structuring and managing activities. The Joint Committee for IPY 2007-2008 will be informed in details about Project fulfilling.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
According to a requirement of IPY proposals, there is a clear plan for Education, Outreach and Communication (EOC) activities.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document)?
According to a requirement of IPY proposals there is a clear plan for addressing data to a number of corresponding organisations, including ICSU World Data Centre, Joint Committee for Antarctic Data Management, WCRP etc. Projects data will be presented in the internet on the web-site of the Ukrainian Antarctic Centre.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
National funding and possibly international funding

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
References of relevant scientific publications: 1. Rusov V.D., Glushkov A.V., Vaschenko V.N., 2004 Astrophysical model of global climate of Earth, Kiev, Naukova Dumka (Singapore, World Sci., submitted). 2. Rusov V.D., Glushkov A.V., Loboda N.S., Khokhlov V.N., Vaschenko V.N., Mikhalus O.T., 2003.Energy-balance model of global climate and its connection with Milankovitch's theory of ice age rhythm. Proc. Int. Conf. Earth System Modelling, Hamburg (Germany), 54. 3. Glushkov A.V., Loboda N.S., Khokhlov V.N., 2005. Using meteorological data for reconstruction of annual runoff series over an ungauged area: Empirical orthogonal function approach to Moldova–Southwest Ukraine region. Atmospheric Research, 77 100-113. Lovett L., Loboda N.S., Glushkov A.V., Khokhlov V.N., 2005. Using non-decimated wavelet decomposition to analyse time variations of North Atlantic Oscillation, eddy kinetic energy, and Ukrainian precipitation Journal of Hydrology, 322, 14-24. 5. Glushkov A.V., Khokhlov V.N., Tsenenko I.A., 2004. Atmospheric teleconnection patterns and eddy kinetic energy content: wavelet analysis. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 11, 295-301. 6. Glushkov A.V., Khokhlov V.N., Loboda N.S., Ponomarenko E.L., 2003. Computer modelling the global cycle of carbon dioxide in system of “atmosphere-ocean” and environmental consequences of climate change. Environmental Informatics Archives, 1, 125-130. 7. Jonckheere, R., Enkelmann, E., Stübner, K., 2005. Observations on the geometries of etched fission and alpha-recoil tracks with reference to models of track revelation in minerals. Radiation Measurements, 39, 576-583. 8. Stübner, K., Jonckheere, R., Ratschbacher, L., 2005. Alpha-recoil track densities in mica and radiometric age determination. Radiation Measurements, in press. 9. Chernouss S., V.Roldugin, A.Semenov, A.Bannikov, V.Vaschenko, G. Milinevsky, 2003. The total ozone content interseasonal peculiarities in the Arctic and Antarctic. UNIS Publ., Longyerbuen, Norway, 77-80. 10. Vaschenko V.N. et al, 1993. Satellite spectrometr BUFS – 2 for ozone measurements by backscattering.Adv. Spase Res., 13, 329-339. 11. Glushkov A.V., Malinovskaya S.V., Dubrovskaya Yu.V., Vitavetskaya L.A., Quantum calculation of cooperative muon-nuclear processes: discharge of metastable nuclei during negative muon capture// Recent Advances in Theor. Phys. and Chem. Systems.-2006.-Vol.15.-P.301-308.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Habil.Dr., Prof. Vitaly Rusov
Ukraine Odessa National Polytechnical University



Ukraine

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