Expressions of Intent for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Forcing from the Ocean and Climate in Antarctica  (FOCA)

Outline
This project aims at investigating the atmospheric linkages between the climate of the Antarctic and the oceanic thermal input at low and middle latitudes. The goal of the research is to gain insight into the way by which the variability in tropical and mid-latitude oceanic conditions modulate the Antarctic climate and into the atmospheric mechanisms that transfer the tropical and sub-tropical oceanic signals to the upper latitudes. Over recent decades part of the Antarctic have experienced major climate changes, with near-surface temperatures on the western side of the Antarctic Peninsula rising faster than anywhere else in the Southern Hemisphere. On the same time the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM), which represents the principal mode of variability in the extra-tropics and high latitudes atmospheric circulation of the Southern Hemisphere, has been moving into its positive phase. From experimental data a good correlation has been highlighted between the trend on the SAM and the levels of stratospheric ozone. Other scientific works point the attention on the dynamical impact of the stratosphere on the troposphere; in this context the trend in the SAM is seen as the downward propagation of a similar tendency shown by the stratosphere. To gain insight into the causes of the trend in the SAM we will address a number of key questions: 1) In which percentage the trend on the stratospheric polar ozone levels during the last decades is related to the anthropogenic chemical perturbation of the atmosphere and to the stratospheric dynamical trend? It has been argued that the small size of the ozone hole in 2002 was not a result of the application of the Montreal Protocol. On the same way, can the polar ozone trend be also related to the tendency on the stratospheric dynamics? 2) How the stratospheric polar dynamics is influenced by sea surface temperatures (SST) at tropical and subtropical latitudes? (SST directly influence the mean stratospheric circulations and probably eddies generation as well). 3) Is it possible to reproduce the latest stratospheric polar trend on the winter dynamics from the trend on the tropical SST? 4) Is it possible to identify some characteristics relative to the intensity and morphology of the SST, which could be to the origin of early split of the Antarctic polar vortex? The work will make use of the output of available global coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model (e.g. NCAR/CAM) and stratospheric Chemical Transport Models (e.g. STRATAQ), in comparisons with satellite and in-situ atmospheric and oceanic data.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
The definition of a mechanism of cause-effect between tropical and middle-latitudes oceanic thermal forcing and the morphology and intensity of the polar vortex, will provide insight into the climate evolution of the polar region of the Southern Hemisphere (Themes #1 and #2). As the main goal of the project, the global linkages between tropical, mid-latitude and polar processes will be investigated (#3). Scientific research issues related to the generation of the atmospheric eddy perturbations and eddies-mean flow interaction will be investigated (#4).

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
The project will involve research institutions from Italy and Argentina. The participating institutions will be also involved in the SCOUT-O3 EU-Project, performing stratospheric modelling in the UTLS zone by means of the same models and data-to-models comparisons technique proposed here. In that sense the FOCA project is a complement to the SCOUT involvement. Close connections and possible coordination with the SCOUT community and collaboration with other stratospheric/oceanic climatic modelling IPY-initiative are also foreseen.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
No field activities are foreseen

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
None

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
No

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

No logistic support

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
No

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
New

How will the project be organised and managed?
The project will be managed by a science board with members from each of the participating institutes.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
PhD student and/or post-doc positions will be associated with the project. Scientific results from the project will be presented at international conferences and published in scientific journals.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document)?
No new experimental data are foreseen to be provided during the project, while results from model calculations and model to data comparisons will be made available to the scientific community as described in point 3.3.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Nationally founded. We will seek for funding to support the project from national funding agencies and research institutions (e.g. the Italian Space Agency an the Italian PNRA from the Italian side).

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
The choice of the International Polar Year as the main temporal period on which performing the proposed climatic studies will strongly benefits from the other planned IPY activities. The IPY can provide unique and ideal opportunity for carrying out oceanic/atmospheric linkage studies, by putting major enhancement to Antarctic researches. Over the IPY period, in fact, there will be additional observing systems deployed across the Antarctic and the Southern Ocean. The operational meteorological analysis, which will assimilate these data (as for example ECMWF products used for model calculations), will therefore be of high quality.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Barbara Grassi
Università dell’Aquila (also at Università degli Studi di Siena )
Università dell’Aquila - Dipartimento di Fisica
via Vetoio – Coppito (L’Aquila)
67010
Italy

Tel: +39 0862 433076
Mobile:
Fax: +39 0862 433033
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation

Other Information