Expressions of Intent for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Pan-Arctic synthesis of proxy climate records spanning the last 2000 years  (2000 yr proxy climate synthesis)

Outline
We propose to convene an international workshop to synthesize high-resolution (annual to inter-decadal) proxy climate records that span the last 2000 years from lakes and other natural archives around the Arctic. The workshop will be held in 2008 to coincide with the IPY, and it will be open to all scientists interested in pooling proxy climate data. The location of the workshop will be chosen to encourage broad international participation. The synthesis workshop will build on a collaborative proposal currently pending at NSF-Arctic System Science to develop high-resolution proxy climate records from 30 lakes in North America. It will provide a link to similar efforts that are ongoing or planned by international groups across the Arctic (e.g., Viv Jones’ IPY Expression of Intent #207), and will fuel climate-modeling efforts that explore the role of volcanism, solar irradiance, and inherent modes of climatic variability to explain observed patterns in the proxy climate data. By reconstructing the spatial and temporal patterns of climatic change during the last 2000 years, this project will contribute to answering key questions related to Arctic climate and environmental change, including: (1) Is the 20th century warming of the Arctic unprecedented in the last 2000 years? Were temperatures in Medieval time warmer than those of the last several decades? What was the spatial pattern of temperature anomalies? (2) What are the spatial-temporal modes of climatic variability, including the Arctic Oscillation, on times scales ranging from inter-annual to centennial? How persistent are they beyond the instrumental record? (3) How do the extreme mean climate states of the historical record (i.e., Little Ice Age and Medieval anomaly) relate to these longer-term modes of Arctic climate variability? (4) What portion of the Arctic-wide and regional temperature changes during the last 2000 years is explained by changes in solar irradiance and volcanic activity, and what portion is related to internal adjustments of the climate system?

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
This project will contribute to understanding change in the Arctic (IPY Theme 2) by placing 20th century climatic change into a longer-term context of low-frequency climatic variability. It will link the efforts of paleo-scientists from many countries and facilitate a pan-Arctic synthesis.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
The synthesis will require involvement by the international community of paleo scientists. Those who are studying proxy climate records from around the Arctic will be encouraged to participate.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Although this proposed IPY activity does not include an independent field component, the synthesis is predicated on the results of emerging and currently proposed research aimed at high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions on a site-by-site basis from around the Arctic, especially Arctic lakes.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
None, other than an existing venue to convene the workshop.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
No

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
Yes, CAPE (Circum Arctic Paleo Environments), a component of IGBP-PAGES (Past Global Changes). Likewise, the PAGES Program International Project Office has expressed enthusiasm in facilitating regional syntheses of climate variability over the past 2000

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Exp
In August 2004, Kaufman with 13 collaborative PIs submitted a proposal to NSF-Arctic System Science to assemble high-resolution proxy climate records from 30 lakes across the North American Arctic. The pending proposal includes plans for an international synthesis meeting at the conclusion of the project.

How will the project be organised and managed?
We will work with IGBP-PAGES and its Arctic program, CAPE (Circum-Arctic PaleoEnvironments), to widely advertise the open meeting, organize a venue, and develop a list of invited participants. We will canvass the international community to identify key participants willing to pool new and exiting data. Prior to the workshop, participants will communicate electronically to develop the database structure needed to harmonize data entry, and to agree on criteria to assure appropriate data quality. At the workshop, database managers will work one-on-one with participants to enter and display data into an integrative and interactive network.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
We plan to disseminate results of the synthesis through the popular press, and will present the findings at national/international meetings and publish them through peer-reviewed outlets. We will also coordinate with the NSF-Arctic System Science Data Management Office to create a value-added, web-based resource available to the greater scientific community and the public at large. q3_4_Data : We will build on extant databases at the World Data Center for Paleoclimatology. Users will have access to a variety of tools for searching and displaying the data archives. The data will be held in georeferenced databases in accordance with the recommendations of NSF-Arctic System Science Data Management Working Group guidelines

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document)?
We will build on extant databases at the World Data Center for Paleoclimatology. Users will have access to a variety of tools for searching and displaying the data archives. The data will be held in dedicated georeferenced databases.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
A proposal currently pending at NSF-Arctic System Science includes US$25k for partial support of the synthesis meeting proposed in this expression of intent. If funded, the NSF grant would provide basic support for a venue that would be used to encourage additional funds from other countries participating in the synthesis.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
The IPY would provide the impetus for broad international and interdisciplinary participation in the proposed synthesis meeting, and that the timing is right to generate a significant synthesis of new knowledge related to long-term climate variability across the Arctic.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Pro Darrell Kaufman
Department of Geology
Northern Arizona University
Flagstaff, AZ
86011
USA

Tel: 928-523-7192
Mobile:
Fax: 928-523-9220
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation

Other Information