Expressions of Intent for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Recent and future variability in the freshwater budget of southern Greenland – An integrated modelling approach  (ReFresh)

Outline
In this project we propose to study the present state and future evolution of the freshwater budget of southern Greenland. This will be done by upgrading and using a suite of existing models, each representing the state of the art in atmosphere, ocean and ice-sheet modeling. Focus will be on solving the interface issues between these models and the validating of model output with observational data. Subsequently, the integrated model tool will be used to determine the present and future evolution of the freshwater budget in southern Greenland and surrounding seas. The main objectives are: ? to provide regional climate simulations for present and future conditions for southern Greenland at an unprecedented resolution ? to provide the first regional modeling of ice-sheet mass balance including both surface melting and iceberg calving of outlet glaciers ? to complete the first integration of climate, ocean and ice-sheet models at similar spatial scales, effectively closing the freshwater budget ? to compile all existing data series from land, ice and ocean for a combined present-day validation of the results from the integrated model system ? to provide predictions of the freshwater flux in and around southern Greenland for the remaining part of the 21st century

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Establishing a new high resolution coupled modelling system for the entire fresh water budget of Greenland, consisting of the fresh water runoff, the atmospheric contribution, the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet and the circulation in the ocean including new interfaces between the modelling components. The project is integrated into the IPY endorsed project, No. 104, Arctic-HYDRA This project addresses 3 IPY Themes directly: Theme 1 “The current state of the polar environments” through validation of the model results with available measurements, Theme 2 “Change in the polar regions” by providing a projection of the freshwater budget into the future and Theme 5 “The polar regions as vantage point” by improving our understanding of the ongoing climate changes. The project will be in a close collaboration with the IPY endorsed project No. 118, The Greenland Ice Sheet – Stability, History and Evolution and project No. 50, Permafrost Observatory Project: A Contribution to the Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP-125).

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
Collaboration between DMI (DK), GEUS (DK) and UAF (UAS) will be established during this project.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Expected field work will take place in southern Greenland

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 10 days in summer 2008      10 days in summer 2009      
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Logistic will be shared with the Danish project PROMICE and existing field stations in southern Greenland.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
A new integrated model system for the fresh water budget of Greenland and the surrounding sees will be created. Applying the model will provide quantitative answers to a range of important questions of local as well as global importance, from local hydropower feasibility to global sea level rise. The application of the resulting combined model system will strengthen Danish collaboration in Arctic climate research. The results may therefore become important tools in the planning of a strategy for mitigation and adaptation to the consequences of climate change, ensuring a clear IPY legacy from this project for the years to come.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Own national polar operator
Own support

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
Yes - Project proposal is submitted to the national IPY funding scheme in Denmark and will be subject to international peer review evaluation.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Yes
This project is a new collaboration between two institutes in Denmark, DMI and GEUS, and the Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks

How will the project be organised and managed?
This project is self-managed and free standing activity which brings together 2 project partners in Denmark and one in USA

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
Both DMI and GEUS participate in Danish initiatives such as Forskerdøgn and Naturvidenskabsfestival where research results are presented to the public. Results will also be directly disseminated to the general public via the DMIs homepage and reports published by DMI and GEUS. It is furthermore envisaged to provide project posters to be exhibited in Greenlandic airports (Ilulissat, Kangerlussuaq, Nuuk, Kulusuk, Narsarsuaq), to produce a web based outreach product designed for specific target group, e.g. teaching in secondary education or similar, and in connection with other activities, where DMI and GEUS are involved to provide public talks in designated Greenlandic towns.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document)?
All data obtained and published during the project well be disseminated at the project webpage. The results will be stored on common IPY-databases, and will be shared with the respective international collaborations for the above mentioned IPY themes.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Funding for the project is sought in the national IPY funding scheme of Denmark (KVUG)

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Jens Hesselbjerg Christiensen
Danish Climate Centre
Danish Meteorological Institute
Lyngbyvej 100
DK-2100
Denmark

Tel: +45 3915 7428
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Other project members and their affiliation

Other Information