Expressions of Intent for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

CANADA #105:Biodiversity and sustainable exploitation of changing resources under climate change in polar marine polar ecosystems  (Modelling polar ecosystems and climate change)

Outline
Whole-ecosystem simulation modelling of food web and oceanographic elements of natural ecosystems (using several techniques developed here in Canada, in Europe and in Australia) has recently become viable. Using these state-of-the art numerical methods, this project aims to examine the current status of selected marine ecosystems at both poles and project future trajectories of the cost/benefits of resource usage, biodiversity (and other indicators of status in relation to exploitation and conservation) across a range of plausible climate change scenarios. Through the application of statistical risk analysis, the outcomes of alternative resource usage and biodiversity can be assessed and compared. Preliminary work on the Antarctic Peninsula and on the Beaufort Sea has recently been completed, and so these areas would be the focus of the initial phase of this project. A great deal of published information will be integrated by the simulation modelling, made available through online databases and mapping. The work will use a synthesis of published information and Local Environmental Knowledge (LEK) of arctic peoples about local ecosystems. Hence, community workshops in the Canadian arctic will be an integral part of the collation of this project.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Themes 1, 2 and 6 are directly addressed by this project. Theme 6 is addressed through the use of local environmental knowledge in constructing and validating ecosystem simulations of the Canadian arctic.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
Probably with CCAMLAR on Antarctic material and the Australian Antarctic Division, (Andrew Constable, Hobart) and New Zealand Antarctic Service.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Field activities will be manly through local community interviews to acquire Local Environmental Knowledge of ecosystem elements and linkages in the Canadian Arctic. No scientific field sampling activities are required, but it is hoped that the opportunity to liaise with field survey projects to acquire information on specific [poorly documented organisms will become available through this initiative.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 6/2006 – 8/2007       6/2007 – 8/2008      6/2008 – 8/2009
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Existing data sources will be adequate for the first phase of this project. Later, opportunity will be taken of any field project to acquire critical data missing from modelled (e.g., local seabird, marine mammals and plankton densities and locations).

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
A very large amount of material is collated in structured databases when this type of whole-ecosystem model is constructed (generally linked through the modelling software), creating an interdisciplinary database of scientific and other sources (e.g.s local environmental knowledge) which can be made available on-line. [Note that we have some experience of this through the ‘Sea Around Us Project’.]

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

presumably this programme will have a call for proposals

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
This pre-proposal has been reviewed and is being submitted by the Canadian Steering Committee (CSC). Ongoing discussions will integrate this pre-proposal into a larger network of related national and international initiatives. The CSC has initially sorted this pre-proposal into: Ecosystems Terrestrial Processes

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
yes

How will the project be organised and managed?
Through a PI and Project Manager. Workshop will review periodic progress against project milestones.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
Feedback reports to communities about on the workshops they have participated in. Online databases, mapping and scenario viewing will make the result accessible. For educational purposes a specially-designed front-end could be designed if funding was available. (This project could take advantage of an ‘immersion lab’ concept for scenario visualisation currently being constructed for the Fisheries Centre under CFI funding and with support from Silicon Graphics Inc).

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document)?
Online databases, mapping and scenario viewing will make the result accessible. For educational purposes a specially-designed front-end could be designed if funding was available. (This project could take advantage of an ‘immersion lab’ concept for scenario visualisation currently being constructed for the Fisheries Centre under CFI funding and with support from Silicon Graphics Inc).

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Through application to the national agency, hopefully through this initiative? Will there be call for proposals?

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr  Tony Pitcher
Fisheries Centre, UBC
2259 Lower Mall
Vancouver, B.C.
V6T 1Z4
Canada

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Other Information