Expressions of Intent for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Causes and Impacts of Recent Changes in the Pacific Arctic  (Change in the Pacific Arctic)

Outline
Unprecedented minima of sea ice area have occurred in the Pacific Arctic during the three most recent summers. Summer 2003 and 2004 brought record forest fires and drought to eastern Siberia and Alaska after a decade of warm springtime temperature anomalies. In surrounding seas there has been a northward shift of ice-dependent marine animals, with pelagic species such as pollock favored over bottom-feeding flatfish, diving seabirds, and snow crab. Polar bears, walrus and ice seals are suffering habitat loss, while gray and bowhead whales appear to be adapting in the short term. A current paradox is that many Pacific Arctic changes are continuing, despite the observation that climate indices such as the Arctic Oscillation were negative or neutral for the last six of nine years. The Pacific Arctic may be having a larger role in shaping the persistence of Arctic change than has been previously recognized. Although our focus is on the Pacific Arctic, it is important to recognize that this region is subject to upstream influences and is part of an Arctic-wide pattern of atmospheric and oceanographic general circulation changes. Primary components of a Pacific Arctic IPY contribution are:· Assess the impact of increased open water and shifts in ocean productivity on population dynamics for marine mammals and selected fisheries, of relevance to coastal communities. This element is based on four oceanographic cruises which follow the melting ice edge northward from the Bering Sea in late March to the Chukchi, East Siberian and Beaufort Seas in September. They document changes in the marine ecosystem from bacteria to marine mammals. It also includes moorings in Bering Strait and a line of ocean drifting buoys.· Determine the role of advection to maintaining thin ice regions in the Pacific sector of the central Arctic basin. Deploy an array of sea ice mass-balance drifting buoys that tracks the motion of regions of thin ice and directly measures the rate of ice melt. Deploy ice-profiling-sonar/current-profilers on the Chukchi plateau and in the southern Beaufort Sea. Coordinate with satellite measurements.· Understand the importance of shifts in intensity and location of the Siberian high pressure system in the context of Arctic and mid-latitude climate variability through a retrospective analysis of local versus advective contributions to the atmospheric heat budget. Assess the relative impacts of warm temperatures on permafrost thaw, changes in groundwater, river runoff, drought and the record-breaking fire seasons in the entire Beringia region.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
·Document the northward movement of species and ecosystem structural changes due to early ice retreat in the Pacific sector of the Arctic relative to historical observations (themes 1 & 2).·Assess mechanisms of change due to thin ice advection and changes in atmospheric and oceanographic circulation and feedbacks (themes 2 & 3).·Repeat the RUSALCA exploration cruise of 2004(themes 4 & 5) to monitor changes in the ecosystem in the Pacific Gateway region of the Arctic

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
Operational collaboration will be through the Pacific Arctic Group consisting of six countries: China, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia, Canada, and the U.S. and through bilateral programs such as the Russian-American Long-term Census of the Arctic.In the larger IPY context we wish to contrast changes in the Pacific sector with other Arctic regions and seek scientific collaboration with other projects.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Bering, Chukchi, East Siberian and Beaufort Seas, and the high Arctic Ocean

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: O3/07-10/07      03/08-10/08      
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Ice-breaker. Multi-instrumented platforms. Ice strengthened research ship. Helicopters. Existing Field Stations. Remotely Operated Vehicles. Autonomous Underrwater vehicles. Ship recovery of buoys.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
This project leaves a legacy of times series stations based on oceanographic cruises, moorings and drifting buoys.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Consortium
Own national polar operator
Another national polar operator
National agency
Military support
Own support
Other sources of support

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
Yes. Expression of interest is in the process of being considered by the US National Committee for IPY.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Yes
The project extends and builds on three activities: SEARCH (Study of Environmental Arctic Change), BEST and RUSALCAStudy of Environmental Arctic Change(SEARCH) is an Arctic-wide, multi-disciplineassessment of ongoing changes and their causes.The Bering Ecosystem Study (BEST) is an NSF project which focuses on the mechanisms and processes that determine the biological production and the fate of this production as it is transferred through the ecosystem. The RUSALCA (Russian-American Long-term Census of the Arctic) is a program that was initiated in 2003 and has goals to monitor ecosystem indicators of change in the Pacific Arctic region, and to monitor flux variations in the Bering Strait.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The Project is organized through the US NOAA Arctic Research Office.Two levels of management are planned. The first are international, inter-US Agency, and intra-NOAA Line Office coordination regarding participation in the project, and financial and ship platform resources.The second level is a science steering committee with responsibility for coordination of measurements among different cruises and sub-projects. Care is necessary to provide sufficient understanding of ecosystem changes over the north/south range of the project.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
The project will inform and work with local residents of the region. There is an existing teacher at sea program and an information website, http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/. NOAA has a major outreach program, http://explore.noaa.gov/.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document)?
Arctic drifting buoy data will be provided in near real time through websites and archived at the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Physical data will be archived at national and IPY international data centers within one year of collection. Biological data will be provided within two years with preliminary results within one year.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
US funding will be through collaboration of agencies (NOAA, NSF, USGS, NPS, NASA). International funding will be through national sub-projects coordinated through the Pacific Arctic Group or through bi-lateral cooperative programs.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
Key contact persons from each of the Pacific Arctic Group nations:Martin Bergmann, Canada;Zhanhai Zhang, China; Mitsuo Fukuchi, Japan; Yeadong Kim, Korea; Valentin Sergienko, Russia; and John Calder, USAKey contact with the Russian Academy of Sciences-NOAA RUSALCA programAcademician N. Laverov.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Director, Arctic Research Office John Calder
NOAA Oceanic and Atmospheric Research R/AR
1315 East West Highway, Room 11362
Silver Spring, MD
20910
USA

Tel: 301-713-2518 ext. 146
Mobile: 301-938-8847
Fax: 301-713-2519
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation

Other Information