Expressions of Intent for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Impact of Aerosols on the Arctic Hydrological Cycle  (Impact of Aerosols on the Arctic Hydrological Cycle)

Outline
The combination of increasing precipitation, rising river flow, declining snow cover, and thawing permafrost indicate substantial changes to the Arctic hydrological cycle. While these changes are almost certainly associated in some way with increasing temperatures in the region, changing atmospheric composition, particularly aerosols, has the potential to modulate the Arctic hydrological cycle both directly and also indirectly through its impact on temperature. Atmospheric aerosols influence the nucleation of liquid and crystalline cloud particles, which influences directly the cloud cover and precipitation processes, and indirectly the river runoff, snow cover, permafrost, glacial accumulation, and surface temperature. Biomass burning in the northern forests, biogenic aerosol, and potentially desert dust are being proposed as significant sources of Arctic aerosol. Recent research has elucidated the role of a variety of aerosol types in cloud particle nucleation. It remains to apply this understanding to the Arctic, given the regional aerosol characteristics and their variations and cloud processes. We propose to establish a program to investigate the interactions among aerosols, clouds and precipitation in the Arctic, and the impact of variations and changes in aerosol characteristics on precipitation, river flow, snow cover, permafrost and surface temperature. During the IPY, we will examine seasonal and regional variations, focusing on the North American Arctic and the Eurasian Arctic land regions. We will establish a multi-disciplinary observing network of atmospheric and surface hydrological observations, integrating existing observations (surface and satellite) and supplementing them with UAV measurements and enhanced surface observations during a special field campaign. Diagnostic and modeling studies will be conducted to document and understand the role of variations of aerosols in influencing variations of the Arctic hydrological cycle, towards predicting these variations and using these predictions in regional decision making. We will attempt to clarify the interactions between warming and variations in aerosol characteristics on the changing Arctic hydrological cycle.This project will promote international interactions through NEESPI, the GEWEX GCSS Working Group on Polar Clouds, and the GEWEX Hydrometeorology Panel.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
The principal advance will be to improve understanding of the sensitivity of the Arctic hydrologic cycle to changes in aerosol concentration and types. We will investigate the role of variations in atmospheric aerosol to changes in precipitation and associated changes in river runoff, surface snow cover, permafrost, and surface temperature.The project is multidisciplinary in that it combines atmospheric chemistry, cloud physics, atmospheric dynamics and surface hydrology.The project will contribute to a legacy observing system of surface hydrology.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
International coordination of this project will be facilitated by the WCRP GEWEX and CLiC programmes, and also the new international NEESPI project. In addition, the observational aspects of the project will be coordinated with the Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS) themes of the global water cycle, cryosphere and atmospheric chemistry. While the project is led by U.S. scientists, participation from Canadian, Russian and Japanese scientists will be sought.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
There are two regions for the proposed field work:• North American Arctic, specifically the North Slope of Alaska centered in the region of Barrow, Alaska• The Eurasian Arctic, the exact location is to be determined.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 04/08 – 06/08      08/07 – 10/07      
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
In the North American Arctic, we plan to take advantage of the extensive logistic support/facilities made available in Barrow, Alaska by the US NSF and DOE ARM program.In the Eurasian Arctic, through NEESPI we will coordinate with other projects to identify a location with suitable logistic support/facilities and to develop a synergistic observing system with other projects.We will use existing field stations in Barrow, Alaska, and develop a new field station in the Eurasian Arctic. We will utilize satellite observations and will also deploy small unmanned aerial vehicles.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
Some of the surface observations will contribute to a legacy of infrastructure, including river gauges and more extensive surface precipitation measurements. These may be retained as an element in the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP II) observing network at the end of IPY, or may be adopted by the participating nations. In addition, the training of young scientists from Russia and other northern nations will be an important legacy of this project.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
National agency

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
Yes. The scoping of a project has been requested by GEWEX and the process of obtaining formal GEWEX endorsement is underway. The Executive committee of GEWEX is positive and approves the proposal. It will be presented, with the Executive's strong endorsement, to the GEWEX SSG in January 2005 for official GEWEX approval.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?

This is a new autonomous project within the WCRP/GEWEX program. In particular it is arguably a natural extension and integration of GEWEX activities in the GCSS Working Group on Polar Clouds and the GEWEX Hydrometeorology Project MAGS.

How will the project be organised and managed?
A project steering committee will be formed of approximately 10 people, including international participants. The Chair of the steering committee will be responsible for coordinating efforts to obtain funding and for coordinating with other IPY activities. The Chair will report to the GEWEX program through GCSS or some other mechanism yet to be determined.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
• An extensive project web site will be established. • We will work with Heidi Cullen with The Weather Channel to develop a special segment on the project• We will work with the Georgia Tech press office to publicize the project and its results• Undergraduate and graduate students will participate in the field work• Two U.S. high school teachers will be invited to participate in the field work and to develop education modules that can be used in their own classroom and they will also visit local classrooms in Barrow and work with local teachers.• We will hold two town meetings in Barrow, inviting interested members of the community and local agencies to attend a public science lecture, discuss our plans for observations, and promote discussion with the local community for using, adapting, or extending these observations to assist them in their local decision making. We will hold follow up meeting approximately one year after the field observations to present our results and discuss applications of our research and needs for related future observing systems to support local decision making. • We will communicate our results to resource extraction groups in the North Slope area, particularly with regards to the relevance our research to snow roads and any possible relation found between air pollution associated with local resource extraction activities and local/regional changes in surface hydrology.• In collaboration with the International GEWEX Project Office, a brochure describing the project will be prepared. Both national (US) and international NEESPI coordinators will promote the project within their science and implementation plans and in their public relations materials.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document)?
Data will be made publicly available as soon as feasible. Initial data will be made available on the project web site. We will contribute our data to existing GEWEX archives, as well as to the archives as required of the national agencies that are funding the project.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
We will seek U.S. national funding from the following sources:NSF ARCSS programNASA: polar program, NEESPI initiativeNOAA climate program and arctic programDOE ARM programWe will also work with international collaborators to identify international sources of funds.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Professor Judith Curry
Georgia Institute of Technology
School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
311 Ferst Dr, Atlanta, GA 30332-0340
30332-0340
USA

Tel: 404 894 3948
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