Expressions of Intent for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Understanding Greenland Ice Sheet Response To Global Warming  (Greenland Ice Sheet Warming)

Outline
There is widespread concern that the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) is melting at an accelerated rate as a response to human-induced global warming. Reasons for this concern include current mass balance loss below 2000 m across much of the ice sheet, rapid retreat of large ice streams, and ice margin retreat from prominent late Holocene (or “neoglacial”) moraines observed around much of the GIS margin. This rapid ice mass loss due to climate warming is not unique over Holocene (the last 10,000 years) timescales. Indeed, for much of the early Holocene, between c. 10,000 and 5,000 years before present, the GIS experienced temperatures between 2 and 3ºC warmer than those of today. This is evidenced from ice core records and from terrestrial and marine archives in ice free areas that span a period known as the “Holocene thermal maximum”. In the light of this, the overall objective of this project is to reconstruct the dimensions and dynamics of the GIS at the end of the Holocene thermal maximum. A key outcome is to determine just how small the ice sheet was the end of this warm interval. A major problem in determining ice margin positions during the Holocene thermal maximum is that the neoglacial ice sheet re-advance, thought to be up to 40-50 km in places, has destroyed the geomorphic evidence for ice margin positions at this time. However, powerful indirect evidence for this re-advance is preserved in ice free areas by geological archives of relative sea level change that track crustal uplift and subsidence associated with changes in ice marginal positions and ice loading. We will collect new records of relative sea-level change from three sites around the southern half of the Greenland Ice Sheet. These records will provide excellent archives of the mid Holocene mass balance and dimensions of the GIS. The proposed area of investigation, between Søndre Strømfjord in the west and Tassilaq in the east, encompasses that part of the ice sheet that is generally considered to be the most sensitive to past and future climate change. The data will be used to constrain ice sheet modelling experiments, so as to determine the dimensions of the GIS at the end of the Holocene thermal maximum and thereby significantly improve our understanding of the nature of ice sheet response to climate warming.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
This project will quantify and understand the role of the Greenland Ice Sheet in the wider global climate system, today and in the past (Themes 1-3). The project will investigate links between the cryosphere, oceans and climate in scientifically unexplored areas of the Arctic (southeast and southwest Greenland) (Theme 4). The field data will be used as a basis for modelled projections of future change in Arctic regions (e.g., Greenland ice sheet contribution to global sea level and impact on thermohaline circulation) which have socio-economic implications, both for the Arctic regions and more widely (Themes 5 and 6).

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
The project involves collaboration between UK and Belgium scientists in fieldwork, laboratory analysis and model development. The work will form part of the proposed new European ESF Programme APEX (Arctic Palaeoclimate and its Extremes) which involves scientists from Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Norway, Russian, Sweden, and the UK.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
The geographical areas for this research are: South Greenland. Field sites will be located in the Sondre Sromfjord area (W Greenland), the Nuuk area (S Greenland), and the Tasilaq area (E Greenland).

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: Field work associated with this project would take place during the two Arctic summers of IPY (2007 and 2008)            
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Our main logistical need is access to field sites. Commercial flights will be used to enter Greenland, thereafter bespoke transport arrangements by inshore boat and helicopter are required. These resources could be very usefully combined with projects operating in the same general field.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
No direct infrastructure will be left. An indirect legacy will be left in the form of PhD students who will form the next generation of polar scientists, as well as the improved working relations between the applicants, and with other international programmes such as APEX.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Own national polar operator
National agency

Through applications to national funding agencies (e.g., NERC) and polar operators (e.g., British Antarctic Survey).

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
This expression of intent has been submitted to the UK National IPY Committee.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?

This proposal builds on previous research completed by the applicants in the Disko Bugt region of W Greenland. The new data obtained will allow the first reconstruction of the dimensions of the GIS at the Holocene thermal maximum.

How will the project be organised and managed?
Two field seasons will be completed, during which observations on Holocene sea-level change and ice margin dimensions (e.g. ice sheet trim lines) will be made The fieldwork will be combined with modelling of sea level change and glacio-isostatic loading with the field data providing constraints to model outputs in an interactive fashion. The project will be organised through the University of Durham and it is anticipated that there will be annual project meetings involving all participants.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
This research will generate wide public interest. Key findings will be disseminated to the media. Durham University will host a project web page. The project involves training of at least two PhD students and postdoctoral researchers. Academic lectures, and scientific and popular publications will also promote the research.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document)?
Data management plans will involve archiving of the geological data at appropriate recognised repositories in line with existing NERC data management policies.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Applications for funding will be made to appropriate national funding agencies (e.g., NERC)

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
This project will determine the dimensions of the GIS at the end of a period of warmer than present conditions that existed in the recent geological past. It will provide a century to millennial scale temporal context for the short term satellite and radar altimetric observations of modern GIS mass balance. It will establish the linkage between changes in climate recorded by the ice cores and actual ice margin responses. These margins are the primary control on meltwater delivery to the North Atlantic and thus affect the thermohaline circulation and, through this, the climate of the northern hemisphere.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Prof Antony Long
Department of Geography
University of Durham
Durham
DH1 3LE
UK

Tel: +44 191 334 1913
Mobile:
Fax: +44 191 334 1918
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation

Other Information