Expressions of Intent for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Human influences and global change on polar top order predators: past and present.  (Human Influence on the Polar Environment - HIPE)

Outline
This study integrates a scientific and educational/outreach program that discusses the influences of human activity on Antarctic seal populations both in the past, due to whaling, and in the present, due to climatic warming, and establishes baselines for future monitoring. Past: Whaling last century may have disrupted the trophic dynamics within the Southern Ocean ecosystem. Where changes in foraging behaviour may not have been detected in the diet s of krill-feeding specialists the opportunistic feeders, such as the leopard seal, were not wedded to one prey and could shift their diet to exploit any changes in the system. Current research has shown that stable isotopic signatures of leopard seal whiskers give up to 4 years of the seals’ foraging behavior (using 2 corrections - von Bertlanffy growth models and Moore-Penrose Psuedo-inverse analysis to identify proportions of prey type). By comparing whiskers collected prior to (museum samples) and post whaling (collected now) we will identify whether there have been changes in the foraging patterns of Antarctic seals. Present: But today the concern is how climatic warming will impact the Southern Ocean which is particularly pertinent for the pack-ice seals as they use the ice to rest, give birth and raise their pups. We will predict how changes in the pack ice due to climatic warming will influence seal populations (using the leopard seal as a model). We will consider: 1. changes in foraging and seal movements in relation to sea ice type, thickness, and movements, 2. changes in ice in relation to ice pupping habitat; 3. levels of pollutants and disease in relation to changes in ocean currents; 4. changes in population abundance and habitat use through acoustic monitoring on a short-term basis (10-yearly; 1997 and 2007) and development of capacity for long-term basis. Why the leopard seal? The leopard seal is one of the few Antarctic apex predators which can be studied directly. As a long-lived, large-bodied animal with a low reproductive rate, they are less affected by local environmental variation but like all apex predators are likely to be the first to respond to large-scale environmental change. They should be considered key in understanding ecosystem change. Unlike other apex species their population has never been harvested. Leopard seals occupy virtually all pack-ice habitats throughout the circumpolar Antarctic and their large population means they are ecologically important. Recently a model was used to predict impacts of climate change on the Arctic apex predator, the polar bear, this showed ecological consequences. Similarly we propose to examine impacts upon the Antarctic apex predator, the leopard seal.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
This integrated science and education program meets most of the IPY themes and targets. Significant anticipated advances include: Use of an apex predator to indicate ecosystem changes within the Southern Ocean system.Technique development: Stable isotopic analysis – identification of foraging patterns of generalist feeders and long-term foraging patterns, Hormone analysis – non-invasive hormone (reproductive and stress) analysis,Acoustic Surveys – inexpensive, highly efficient monitoring of pack ice species.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
Furthering relationships between Canadian & Australian scientific institutions (established); collaborations with museums world-wide for historic samples (established & developing); and collection of field samples from other Antarctic nations to assess geographic variation (developing).

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Southern Ocean: 1.Samples previously collected:Pre-whaling – 1901 & 1960s (museum collections); 1999 to 2001 – Prydz Bay, Eastern Antarctica.2. Samples to be collected:2007/2008: Pack Ice of Eastern Antarctica, with greater emphasis in Prydz Bay.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: Oct/2006 – Mar/2007      Oct/2007 – Mar/2008      Oct/2008 – Mar/2009

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Logistic Support Southern Ocean – Icebreakers, Helicopters, Satellites, Existing field stations.FacilitiesLaboratories:Reproductive analysis – host;Acoustic Surveys – DSTO & host; Pathology - University of Sydney & host;Modelling – Australian Antarctic Division and University of Alberta/Canadian Wildlife Service;Educational Outreach – ZPB NSW; NSW Education Department, National Geographic.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
Dedicated research facilities for Antarctic scientists (4 laboratories and office space for 8 scientists) will be constructed as part of the Great Southern Ocean’s programDedicated education facilities in Sydney, Australia for international visitors, locals and school childrenDedicated website for educational program.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Own national polar operator
National agency
Own support
Other sources of support

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
This proposal was submitted (7th January 2005) and is awaiting endorsement from the Australian National Committee for Antarctic Research

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?

It was once believed that leopard seals were too difficult to work with, due to logistical constraints, however our current and past studies have shown that this is not the case. Our current samples and datasets (for acoustic surveys, spatial and foraging behaviour and health) form the basis of this current program.

How will the project be organised and managed?
Scientific Program:Program overseen and coordinated by Dr Rogers (Chief Investigator),Field research team (CI, Research Assistant, 2 Post-graduate research students),Acoustics surveys – CI, A.Prof. Cato (Physicist), Post-graduate research student,Foraging – CI & Post-graduate research student,Spatial behaviour – CI,Health – Prof. Canfield (Veterinary Pathologist), Post-graduate research student,Hormones – Prof. Mather (Analytical Chemist), Ms Hogg (Reproductive Biologist),Ice Modelling – Dr Heil (Glaciologist),Biological Modelling – Prof. Stirling (Biologist).Educational/Outreach Programs:Construction of Great Southern Ocean FacilityConstruction Project Manager Assets Department (ZPB NSW – host institution),Education Education Manager (NSW Education Department/ZPB NSW),Outreach Media Relations Manager (ZPB NSW),Ms Buhleier (National Geographic),Website Co-ordinator (ZPB NSW).

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
Dedicated ($35 million) research & education facility opens 2007 at the ZPB NSW. This interactive facility offers public and school-based programs about Antarctica, climate change and polar research. Further interactive information will be on our website. A National Geographic magazine article & documentary on our program is planned for 2007/08.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document)?
Data management will be in collaboration with the Australian Antarctic Division Metadata Centre.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Scientific Program: Logistic support – Australian Antarctic Science (AAS) Grant application due August 2005; Personnel – funding in-hand AMMRC ZPB NSW, Sample analysis –funding to be sought (ARC/SWRRFI/Scott Foundation).Educational/Outreach Program: Facility - $35 million research & educational facilities - funding in hand (¾ Treasury NSW & 1/4 ZPB NSW).Personnel – funding in hand ZPB NSW

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
Legacy: Dedicated research facilities (4 laboratories and office space for 8 scientists) will be constructed as part of the Great Southern Ocean’s program at the ZPB NSW for Antarctic scientists.Training: 3-4 doctoral students will be involved in this program providing for future scientists.Outreach & Communication: Interest from the following organisations about our program, National Geographic; Scientific American; Catalyst (Australian Broadcasting Corporation Scientific Program).

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Tracey Rogers
Australian Marine Mammal Research Centre
Zoological Parks Board of NSW/Veterinary Faculty University of Sydney
PO Box 20. Mosman, NSW
2088
Australia

Tel: +61 2 99784707
Mobile:
Fax: +61 2 99784502
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation

Other Information