Expressions of Intent for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Polar Disturbance and Ecosystem Services: Links from Climate to Human Well-being  (Polar Disturbance and Ecosystem Services)

Outline
The goal of this project is to document pan-arctic changes in large-scale disturbances (thermokarst, fire, insect outbreaks, and forest harvest), their triggers (changes in key plant and animal species, changes in societal concerns), and to assess their ecological, climatic, and societal consequences in high-latitude ecosystems (tundra and boreal forest). Threshold changes in species abundances and disturbance frequencies in response to climatic trends constitute surprises that are not readily predicted by coupled land-atmosphere models. When managers do consider loss or outbreak of species or disturbance occurrence, they usually attempt to prevent them. Recent trends suggest that continued high-latitude warming will likely be accompanied by changes in species abundance and increased disturbances such as fire, insect outbreaks, thermokarst, and potentially forest harvest and land-cover conversion to agriculture. These disturbances have qualitatively different effects on the climate system, ecological processes, and therefore society than do those ecological processes that are more continuous functions of climatic change. Large-scale disturbances have the practical advantage that they can be quantified regionally by remote sensing so processes studied locally are more readily extrapolated to large scales. The program builds on existing research programs in Alaska, Canada, Scandinavia, and Russia and on global remote-sensing and inventory programs. We choose a pan-arctic scale so we can relate our results to the functioning of arctic climate system and to take advantage of geographic variation in climate and disturbance regime. We address the following questions: 1. How have changes in climate and vegetation affected disturbance regime across the arctic and boreal zones, and how have these changes in disturbance affected climate through changes in trace gas emissions, smoke, and energy exchange? Are species change and disturbance a continuous function of climate parameters or are there thresholds? Do feedbacks from land-surface processes to climate buffer or amplify the initial climate trends? 2. How do changes in disturbance regime affect post-disturbance ecosystem development and future disturbance probability? Are there thresholds in disturbance severity or size that trigger qualitatively different patterns of ecosystem development? 3. How have changes in species and disturbance regime affected ecosystem services on which society depends, and how have human activities (ignitions, suppression, and land-cover change) influenced disturbance regime? 4. How have policies changed in response to recent changes in climate and disturbance regime, and what factors influence the rigidity or flexibility of these policies?

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
This project will document the geographic pattern and recent trends in species distributions (gains and losses) and in disturbance regime (type, extent, severity, frequency). We will relate these to the climatic properties that cause these changes and determine whether the climatic triggers are continuous or threshold in nature. We will document the ecological and societal consequences of these changes in species distributions and disturbance regime. This research program will establish the mechanisms by which climate, species, disturbance, and human interactions to the environment are linked.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
This project will be a collaborative effort of existing research groups in Alaska (Chapin, Walsh, McGuire, Randerson, Kasischke, Sharpton, Huntington), Canada (Flannigan, Bergeron, Stocks, Apps, Wurz, Natcher), Scandinavia (tentatively Hjalten), western Russia (Vaganov, Wirth, Schulze), and eastern Russia (Zimov, Fukuda).

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
We will rely as much as possible on synthesis of existing data, model output, and remote sensing products. Field validation will be centered in Alaska, western and eastern Canada, Sweden, west Siberia, and east Siberia, where the above research groups are currently conducting research.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 06/2006 to 09/2006      06/2007 to 09/2007      06/2008 to 09/2008
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Logistic support is in general provided by existing national programs or programs that these research groups will develop through proposals to national agencies. Additional support will be needed only in west and east Siberia. We encourage the sharing of facilities and data with other IPY projects.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
In Russia, yes. For example, the Northeast Science Station in eastern Siberia has developed a research capability that will be further developed through this program and which will continue to support arctic science in the future.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Own national polar operator
National agency
Own support

Each national program will continue to provide arrangements for its own logistic support. The mechanism for this varies by country. In Russia significant logistic support has been provided both by Russian scientists and by U.S., German, and Japanese research teams.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
Alaskan fire project endorsed by the Millennium Assessment as a subglobal assessment linking disturbance, ecosystem services, and human well-being. The East Siberian program is a component of RAISE. All programs are nationally endorsed through current national funding mechanisms.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
New
This program is a new autonomous proposal that links existing national projects.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The project will be managed by the International Arctic Research Center (IARC), which has a staff and budget for international coordination. The leadership team will consist of the leaders of individual national research programs (see names listed in section 1.7), chaired by Terry Chapin and John Walsh. The leadership team will meet annually, with other meetings among project individuals as dictated by the science needs. Most of the science management is already in place in the existing national research efforts. The new management effort will be targeted at synthesis, modeling and coordination among the individual research efforts.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
Graduate and undergraduate education will be conducted through existing training programs at the University of Alaska (Resilience and Adaptation) and the University of the Arctic. Outreach will emphasize work with indigenous communities and resource managers to determine the linkages between climate, disturbance, and human well-being.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document)?
Data will be managed at the national level by individual research groups. Synthesized data will be managed by IARC and by the Bonanza Creek Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) program during the active research phase and archived at NSIDC, LTER, or other web-accessible long-term data archival centers. q3_5_Funding : Each national program is responsible for securing its own funding. IARC will support the initial organizational phase. We will seek additional funding from national funding agencies to integrate these efforts and to partially support the field research of Russian scientists.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Each national program is responsible for securing its own funding. IARC will support the initial organizational phase. We will seek additional funding from national funding agencies to integrate these efforts and to partially support the field research.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Stuart Chapin
Institute of Arctic Biology
University of Alaska
Fairbanks, AK
99775
USA

Tel: 907-474-7922
Mobile: 907-590-8532
Fax: 907-474-6967
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation

Other Information