Expressions of Intent for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Long-term Sea Level Variability in the Nordic Seas  (LEVANS)

Outline
Many forces in the atmosphere and ocean influence the sea level. Thus the sea level integrates a great number of physical processes in the environment and therefore can be a representative parameter for monitoring of climatic changes. There are more than 30 tide-gauge stations in the Barents, Norwegian and Greenland seas. Most of these stations show significant changes of the sea level in last two decades. These changes could be a manifestation of global warming in the Arctic together with the increase NOA, a decrease of sea ice extent, air temperature rise, warming of Atlantic waters and reorganisation of the thermohaline circulation. In assessing total influences climate change, it is essential to consider each of the various factors, influencing sea level, individually, and to combine their separate contribution to provide estimates of future conditions. It is important to note that comprehensive investigation of sea level change in the Nordic Seas (NS) has not been done yet. We propose to analyze monthly mean sea level data from NS and evaluate role of each possible factor influencing processes of sea level change in this area. Observational data analyses in the combination with a numerical model results will provide a basis for this research. Based on this analysis, the impact of linkages between hydrography, atmospheric circulation, hydrologic conditions, and sea ice regime over the NS on inter-annual and decadal variability of sea surface heights will be assessed. This project has two broad objectives: Identify major factors influencing sea level variability at different time scales, and evaluate the role of each factor in sea level change using correlation analysis and methods of numerical modeling. Introduce a conceptual model of sea level change in the Arctic for the 20th century. Make a prediction of sea level variability in the Arctic based on this model and Identify of most representative tide-gauge stations in the NS and installation of three new automatic tide-gauge stations in the Fram Strait and Barents Sea for future monitoring long-term changes of sea level.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Creation of the integrated historical data set that will be used for statistical analysis and model validations. • Evaluation of processes controlling the sea level in NS in different time scales. • Determination of the present state and quantitative evaluation of long-term trends and their causes. • Conceptual model of future scenarios of changes of the sea level in NS. • Establishment 3 new automatic tide-gauge stations: in western part of the Fram Strait, eastern coast of Svalbard and western coast of the Franz Josef Land archipelago.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
Consortium of active collaborators consists of 4 partners from 3 institutes in Norway and Russia.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
The three new representative tide-gauge stations for future long–term monitoring of the sea level in NS will be established.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: January-December 2007            
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Existing coastal stations in the NS and three new established tide-gauges will be available for use by the consortium.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
We plan to establish the three new representative tide-gauge stations for future long–term monitoring of the sea level in NS.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Consortium
Own national polar operator
Another national polar operator
National agency
Own support
Other sources of support

The Consortium will coordinate use of the logistical resources providing by the participating countries

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
The proposal will be submitted to the national IPY committees of the participating countries for endorsement.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
New
New applications will be sent both to national and international funding agency.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The overall project coordinators will be headed by Vladimir Pavlov (NPI) and Igor Ashik (AARI). Each work package will have leader, responsible for coordination of all tasks of the WP.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
Education and training: Two PhD students from joint AARI–NPI FRAM lab (http://www.fram.nw.ru/) will be incorporate to this project. Promotion and outreach: Prepare and maintain a public web-site; prepare popular articles on the public web pages.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document)?
The data management will be handled within the operating data management system in associated Institutes. Project web site will contain all data created in the project and these data will be made publicly available.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Each participating institution will apply funding from their national research funding agencies.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Vladimir Pavlov
Norwegian Polar Institute
Polar Environmental Centre
N-9296
Norway

Tel: +47 77750516
Mobile: +47 90626955
Fax: +47 77750501
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation

Other Information