Expressions of Intent for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

The impact of climate change and human-development on the predator prey dynamics of pan-arctic migratory birds  (Changing arctic landscapes and migratory birds)

Outline
We propose to examine how an arctic predator-prey community, centered on nesting shorebirds and waterfowl, is changing in the face of climate change and expanding human (primarily oil) development in the arctic. Nesting shorebirds and waterfowl (along with loons and several other species) migrate from wintering areas literally all over the globe to nest in a short, productive summer in the arctic. These species lay their eggs in sparse tundra nests in wet tundra areas surrounded by thaw lakes. Nest predators prey on these nests when found, eliminating the potential reproductive output for the year of these bird species. This arctic predator-prey dynamic likely dates back thousands if not millions of years. The balance is shifting in this dynamic, however, with a changing climate and expanding oil development. Nest predators like arctic fox, common raven, and glaucous gulls have increased in arctic Alaska with oil development and associated infrastructure, using structures for dens and nests not otherwise available, and using garbage from landfills for subsistence. Climate change is potentially shifting the peak productivity that shorebirds and waterfowl depend upon, to a peak earlier in the summer, with heretofore unknown effects on nesting birds that need to mate, form eggs, incubate eggs, rear young and molt all in the short arctic summer. In addition, sub-arctic species are moving north with these climate changes, including several duck species breeding in the high arctic that hadn’t before. All told, these climatological and anthropogenic changes are likely to dramatically affect the millions of birds that migrate to this once-remote region. For the past three years, we have been a leading partner in a collaboration of researchers from the US Fish and Wildlife Service, oil companies and others in a large-scale assessment of how such breeding birds are affected by oil development in Alaska’s arctic. We wish to expand elements of this study to broaden the geography of effort across the arctic and evaluate how different areas vary in nesting bird density, diversity, and productivity with nest predator density and diversity. We would measure these patterns in relation to distance from infrastructure (villages or oil development) and climatological measures, including a ranking of areas with respect to degree of climate change in the past decades. This effort would produce an important evaluation of how wildlife communities and interactions are changing in the high arctic with expanding development and climate change.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
This project explicitly addresses the two top themes for the IPY 2007-08: we are seeking to understand changes happening in the arctic to the most important vertebrate predator-prey interaction, that of nesting shorebirds and waterfowl and their nest predators. For this dynamic, the most important sources of change are climatological and increasing human development. We are currently a leading partner in a collaborative research effort to evaluate the effect of oil development on nest predators and nesting arctic birds (those efforts are winding up this year). An international collaboration could help tease apart the interactions of climate and development.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
We are collaborating with North American, Russian, and European colleagues (see proposal by Bruno Ens “Predicting the effects of climate change on the migration and reproductive success of arctic breeding waders”). We have agreed upon a common effort to examine the effects of climate change on shorebirds across the arctic.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
We plan to utilize sites already established (as part of a previous project) on the North Slope of Alaska. In addition, sites in the Canadian, Russian and European arctic will also be established. Likely new sites include areas within the Canadian arctic archipelago and the Taimyr Peninsula in Siberia.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 06/07 – 08/07      06/08 – 08/08      
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
This project will require the purchase of field gear and frequent helicopter/fixed wing flights to transport equipment and personnel. We will work with governmental agencies and the private sector to assist with logistic support and equipment storage. These resources can be shared with other projects depending on timing and necessity

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
This project will not leave a legacy of physical establishments. However, sampling sites will be geo-referenced for future studies.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

Depending on the region, support will be provided by a consortium of polar operators, national and state agencies (North Slope Borough, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, etc.), and by commercial operators. In addition, considerable private sector support may be available from the oil industry.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
The USNC is going to look at all the submissions after the Jan. 14 deadline

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?

This is an autonomous proposal although we hope to build upon an existing body of data we compiled in a previous project (from 2002-2005). In addition, we hope to draw from previous sources of data from other potential collaborators, specifically to examine long-term changes in avifauna reproductive success and climate change

How will the project be organised and managed?
This project will be a collaborative endeavour with academics and government biologists who share a common research interest although other research efforts may be pursued in concert with the one outlined here. We at WCS will act as the project leader and will hold annual workshops to discuss issues related to sampling design, funding, and other pertinent concerns. Each individual collaborator will be responsible for the logistics and field operations at each respective study site.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
We will present and discuss our research objectives to local arctic communities for feedback and potential participation. This will specifically entail organized community meetings and pamphlets or web-based descriptions of our study plans. We at WCS plan to hire members of the local Alaskan Inupiat communities as field assistant interns.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document)?
The collaborative group will develop a standardized database that will be stored in the appropriate format recommended by the IPY.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
This project will require funding from the designated organizations that are selected to administer IPY funds. We will seek funds from federal and state government agencies, corporate grants, foundations, and private donors.The budget will likely be in the $1 million range with most expenses related to transportation ($600,000), salaries ($60,000), equipment ($100,000), consulting fees ($30,000), and administrative ($15,000).

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr. Steve Zack
Wildlife Conservation Society
219 SW Stark Street, Suite 200, Portland, OR
97204
USA

Tel: 503-241-3743
Mobile: 503-705-9097
Fax: 503-241-7925
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation

Other Information