Expressions of Intent for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Proposed participation of the U.S. THORPEX Programme in the International Polar Year  (IPY-US THORPEX)

Outline
The WMO/WWRP’s THORPEX Global Research Programme involves nations from North America, Europe, Asia, Africa and the Southern Hemisphere. THORPEX research intends to accelerate improvements in the prediction and understanding of high-impact weather on the 1 to 14-day time-scale for the benefit of society, the environment and the economy. Our proposed US THORPEX participation in IPY will:-Investigate two-way interactions between polar and sub-polar weather regimes. Episodic polar-air outbreaks directly impact lower latitudes and also lead to intense middle-latitude cyclogenesis, poleward thrusts of tropical air, and outbreaks of tropical convection. Such events can modify oceanic and global atmospheric patterns on longer time-scales, which feedback onto polar-regions. Investigations will utilize research and operational models and global reanalyses. Investigations will also seek to determine predictability and which long-term polar measurement strategies are beneficial from the prospective of understanding and predicting polar/sub-polar interactions.-Use IPY measurements to develop, test and refine coupled modelling strategies for the polar earth system. Such models are critical to predicting polar climate change, polar weather, polar-global interactions and answering research questions, such as whether anomalous open water will lead to modifications in storm tracks, storm intensity, oceanic currents and Ferrel/Walker circulations.-Assess and seek to improve the quality of operational and reanalysis products in polar regions. Our strategies include: i) The direct use of IPY measurements; ii) Applying advanced ensemble-based data assimilation techniques in a polar environment with fully coupled ocean-ice-land-atmospheric models; iii) Conducting forecast and research model simulations at sufficiently high horizontal and vertical resolution to examine the impacts of topography and surface variations and assess the uncertainty in coarse-resolution products; iv) Improving satellite-based data assimilation in polar regions.-Demonstrate the value of improved utilization of ensemble weather forecast products for events that are of high-impact to polar societies and for applicable IPY operations. The THORPEX Interactive Grande Global Ensemble (TIGGE) is a multi-national predictive system designed to examine operational forecast strategies and further associated research opportunities. TIGGE plans to “combine” ensembles from Australia, Canada, U.S., Met Office, ECMWF, METEO France, and Japan. An IPY-TIGGE effort would tailor ensemble forecasts for polar weather, studies of the effects of polar processes on sub-polar weather and assess predictability. The proposed inclusion of an ensemble filter as part of TIGGE will allow ensemble products to be fed back into the data assimilation system and allow tests of the impact of ensemble-based, flow-dependent forecast error covariances on the utilization of polar observations.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Improved understanding of polar-global teleconnections across scales, and the processes controlling these interactions.Advancement in modelling of physical, dynamic, and cryospheric processes, and in designing observing systems/strategies. Recommendations on IPY legacy measurements.Improved usage of conventional, satellite, and IPY observations through advanced data-assimilation techniques. Improved determination of the present environmental status of the polar regions.Improved operational prediction with benefits for society, the economy, the environment and policy makers.Improved linkage between weather and climate studies of polar regions. Furthering our ability to quantify and understand, past and present environmental change in the polar regions in order to improve predictions.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
THORPEX is an international effort (http://www.wmo.int/thorpex). Some nations will be submitting their own THORPEX-related IPY submissions. Our planned collaborations include: Canada (Gilbert Brunet and Pierre Gauthier), METEO France (Florence Rabier), France CNES (Philippe.Cocquerez), New Zealand (Warren Tennant), Australia (Kamil Puri, Tom Keenan), Japan (Tetsuo Nakawaza) and China (D.H. Chen).

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Poleward of ~60º. For the Antarctic: Stratospheric driftsonde-balloons with flight-level data and releasing dropsondes, NCAR’s HIAPER aircraft to supplement regional/local measurements. For the Arctic: We are especially interested in the role of polar processes in high impact weather in the poles and lower-latitudes using research aircraft, UAVs and/or driftsonde balloons.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 01/2008 – 03/2008      01/2009-03/2009      
Antarctic: 10/08-02/09            

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
We will try to base operations outside of poleward regions with flights over the poles by driftsondes stratospheric balloons and high performance aircraft. Any ballooning operations in the Antarctic would likely be in collaboration with France CNES which have flow in this region before.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
Will make recommendations on legacy measurements including UAVs or long-duration stratospheric balloons.Legacy of improved operational modelling, improved reanalysis and high-resolution coupled models for research and operations. The proposed activities will equip NCAR's real-time Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS - http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/rt/mm5/amps/) with a prototype next-generation polar, real-time NWP system.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

We envision research aircraft and/or stratospheric balloons flying over polar regions and within the polar vortices will be used for measurements. These will generally not require typical polar operator support. Radiosonde soundings are polar research sites are desirable such as planned by the French and S. Hemisphere groups for Antarctica.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
THORPEX IPY plans have been endorsed by the WMO Expert Group for the development of a THORPEX Implementation Plan (EG-TIP). See http://www.wmo.int/thorpex. Preliminary plans have been submitted for national approval. We will continute to seek national approval.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?

Part of existing THORPEX plan developed as an action following the meeting of the EG-TIP with Dr. Paul Egerton, Executive Secretary of the European Polar Board and Dr. Eduard Sarukhanian, Special Advisor to the WMO Secretary-General on the IPY.New project for the IPY.

How will the project be organised and managed?
THORPEX has a Scientific Advisory Board, an International Core Steering Committee, and has begun the process of forming a THORPEX-IPY Joint Scientific Committee. In addition, THORPEX is in the process of forming an Executive Board with regional committees in North America, Europe, Asia and is forming the Southern Hemisphere Committee for the implementation of the program. In the US, we will expand our THORPEX committee membership to an IPY-THORPEX project committee.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
Outreach will include:-A meeting of those impacted by Arctic Weather events will take place prior to the June submission data and be held in Alaska to begin outreach links.-Graduate student and postdoc participation-AMS, EGU, AGU meetings.-Refereed journals and popular literature.-NCAR IPY activities will feed directly into the real-time, mesoscale AMPS, which is made available to Antarctic forecasters.-Interaction with Canadian and US /NOAA efforts to develop high-resolution user-based Arctic modeling systems.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document)?
An international data management plan is being developed for THORPEX that will include IPY. Data will include field measurements and relevant operational data and output. Within the US, the data management will likely include NOAA, UCAR/JOSS and UCAR/UNIDATA. Data sets will be open whenever possible and adhere to data policies of funding agencies.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
NOAA activities will be agency funded and a separate proposal is being submitted to the IPY for these activities. The NOAA work will focus on satellite data assimilation and sea ice. Proposals will be submitted to NSF Polar Programs and NSF Geosciences/Atmospheric Science. Proposals for instrumentation support for driftsonde or HIAPER will be sent to the NSF deployment pool.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
See THORPEX Science Plan and International Implementation Plan at http://www.wmo.int/thorpex. US and Canadian THORPEX involvement in IPY has been approved and further encouraged by a meeting of the North American THORPEX Regional Committee. THORPEX has involved into the next GARP for the weather community and these two major programs (THORPEX and IPY) will benefit greatly through collaboration. We will interact with relevant NOAA IPY efforts led by Zoltan Toth and with Alaskan Branch of Natl Weather Service (James Partain).

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr. David Parsons
National Center for Atmospheric Research
P.O. Box 3000
Boulder, CO
80307
USA

Tel: 303-497--8749
Mobile:
Fax: 303-497-8770
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