Expressions of Intent for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Greening of the Arctic: Monitoring circumpolar arctic biomass  (GOA - Greening of the Arctic)

Outline
The main objectives of this initiative are to (1) establish a baseline of circumpolar NDVI images to examine the trends in greening across the entire circumpolar Arctic using the 27-year record of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data, and (2) conduct ground measurements of aboveground biomass along two transects across the full arctic bioclimate gradient that is coordinated with other terrestrial studies of temperature, permafrost, active layer and biodiversity and which can be used to monitor future changes to terrestrial ecosystems, and (3) train a group of young investigators so that standardized measurements can be continued in the future. To increase the network of ground measurements, other long-term research stations that are part of the Circumpolar Environmental Observatory Network (CEON) will also participate. If the Arctic warms over the next few decades as predicted by most arctic scientists, large changes in vegetation biomass will occur and will have important consequences to many components of the Arctic system including status of the permafrost, hydrological cycles, wildlife, and human occupation. There will also be important feedbacks to climate through changes in albedo and carbon fluxes. Changes in biomass are already happening. In Arctic Alaska from 1981 to 2001, the greenness of the landscapes as measured by satellite-derived values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) increased by 17%. It is uncertain what this remarkable change in greenness means with respect to plant biomass, but current NDVI-biomass relationships suggest that an average of over 100 g m-2 have been added to the tundra of northern Alaska within the past twenty years. Other studies have shown a major increase of shrub cover across northern Alaska during the past 50 years. If the Arctic Ocean becomes ice-free during the summer, some of the largest percentage increases could occur in the coldest parts of the Arctic. Although there is a large amount of plant biomass data collected from the Arctic, the data are highly variable in quality, not geo-referenced, and there have been no consistent repeated long-term measurements of biomass that can be linked to time-series satellite measurements of greenness. Greenness and average biomass are influenced by many factors other than temperature including regional floras, glacial history, bedrock and soil chemistry and local nutrient availability, so circumpolar patterns of NDVI need to be analyzed with respect to terrain variables to determine if the greening is uniform or occurring in local patches.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Theme 1: A baseline of arctic biomass linked to circumpolar NDVI databases will be used to determine how the current greenness patterns are related to climate and terrain variables in the Arctic. Theme 2: Past and future changes in the greenness of the circumpolar Arctic will be monitored using a time series of AVHRR data and ground measurements of biomass. Theme 3: Time series of sea-ice-cover data will be used to examine linkages between greening and global climate fluctuations, such as the Arctic Oscillation. Theme 4: New long-term sites at Mould Bay and Isachsen would provide ecological monitoring in the extreme environments of bioclimate subzones A and B.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
The proposed work would mainly involve two transects at 15 research sites in Alaska, Canada, and Russia. This will ensure consistent sampling across the entire arctic climate gradient. Collaborative monitoring efforts with other ongoing research and new sites proposed for IPY will increase the size of the biomass and NDVI monitoring effort. The project will involve willing partners at established Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) sites, the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX) sites, the network of International Biological Programme (IBP) Tundra Biome sites and other research stations throughout the Arctic. The project would be coordinated through the Circumpolar Environmental Observatory Network (CEON).

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Two transects in North America and Russia through all five arctic bioclimate subzones. North America transect has 20 research grids at 10 locations (Happy Valley, AK to Isachsen, Canada). A similar transect through all five bioclimate subzones in the Russian Arctic (Novaya Zemlya (Ruskaya Gavan) to Nadym.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: Jul-Aug 2007      Jul-Aug 2008      
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Field camps at Mould Bay, Isachsen and Green Cabin would duplicate the camps supported by VECO for our Biocomplexity project, so these requirements have been worked out previously. Field camps will also be needed for the Russian sites. We encourage the participation of other IPY projects at these research sites.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
A network of long-term observation sites for monitoring the environment across the full climate gradient as part of IPY and beyond. Several of the sites are part of existing networks, but Mould Bay and Isachsen are accessible new sites that would provide information for the coldest part of the Arctic.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Consortium
Own national polar operator
Another national polar operator
National agency
Military support
Commercial operator
Own support
Other sources of support

The North American transect would be funded through proposals to NSF that would extend the logistics of a current Biocomplexity grant that ends in 2006. NSF would also be asked to support the logistics for a transect across the Yamal Peninsula and Novaya Zemlya in Russia (estimated cost $200,000).

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
1. The International Permafrost Association (IPA). 2. Circumpolar Arctic Fauna and Flora (CAFF) program (still to be determined, pending meeting of its Board)

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Expansion
Continuation of 10 sites that are part of a Biocomplexity project. Also a Russian transect at five sites across the Yamal Peninsula and Novaya Zemlya. All sites would be sampled during the IPY years, and then a key subset sampled at 5-year intervals.

How will the project be organised and managed?
Project director: D.A. Walker, UAF. The key investigators: Jiong Jia , CSU; Howie Epstein, UVa. (published the original paper on the greening of northern Alaska) and would analyze the time series of NDVI and develop ARCVEG model to help predict changes in biomass). Martha Raynolds, UAF, coauthor of the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map, would analyze the NDVI data with respect to spatial variables in the CAVM GIS database. Uma Bhatt, UAF, would analyze the time series of sea ice data. Strong coordination with numerous other investigators in other IPY projects.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
1. Establish biomass data collection sites at high schools at numerous villages across arctic Alaska, Canada, and Russia as part of a “community-based monitoring” program. 2. A web-page to keep the students involved. 3. Arctic Field Ecology course.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document)?
1. Data manager to develop standardized field protocols, data sheets, and archiving methods. 2. Data archived with JOSS), ADCC), and GINA. 3. Project information disseminated through the Alaska Geobotany Center (AGC) web site. 4. Coordinated with CEON and the ARCUS.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
1. Circum-arctic analysis of NDVI (UAF, CSU and Uva) Proposals to NSF, IARC and the Nature Conservancy. 2. Network of sites for long-term monitoring of biomass across all five subzones. 3. Community based biomass monitoring and the Arctic Field Ecology Course.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
A key element of the project is to establish long-term monitoring sites in all five bioclimate subzones of the Arctic. Sites in the extreme High Arctic are particulary needed. The project will have direct links to several other proposed IPY initiatives that could be coordinated into an integrated Arctic terrestrial ecology package. These include this GOA initiative, the Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP) project (Vlad Romanovsky), the ITEX initiative (Greg Henry) and an initiative to revisit the IBP research sites (Back to the Future, Terry Callaghan). These and other terrestrial ecology initiatives could be coordinated through CEON.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Prof Donald A. (Skip) Walker
University of Alaska Fairbanks
Fairbanks, AK
99775
USA

Tel: +1 907 474 2460
Mobile:
Fax: +1 907 474 2459
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation

Other Information