Expressions of Intent for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Arctic Weather Extremes  (AWE)

Outline
The overall objective of AWE is to improve our understanding of the processes that lead to adverse weather extremes in the Arctic region, as well as to document the nature and frequency of such events. Apart from purely scientific motivations, this is motivated by the projected increase in commercial activities in this region, many of which are dependent on a solid knowledge of the nature and distribution of local extreme weather events. Specifically, we plan to address the following points: 1. Mapping of extreme weather events. An array of documentation of such events exists, most often in the form of observational data. A wide range of this evidence will be compiled into a comprehensive climatology of such events in the Arctic region. 2. Acquisition of new observational data by employing and expanding existing infrastructure, making new observations, accessing other relevant data recorded in context of IPY, as well as making use of any 'ships of opportunity' for in-situ observations. 3. Differentiation between different kinds of events and improvement of our understanding of the mechanisms that produce them. In our view, three of the most important sources of extreme winds in this area are: Polar lows in regions characterised by warm surface waters and frequent cold air outbreaks, lee winds due to flow over mountains in situations where the environmental static stability is strong, and frontal winds in highly baroclinic regions. All of these anomalies are related to systems on much larger spatial and temporal scales. It is highly important to get an overview of how systems on different scales interact to form extreme wind events. 4. Downscaling of model output as a quantitative approach to the interactions between scales. Even at coarse resolution, climate model output and analyses could contain useful information relevant to winds at smaller scales. Moreover, it is clear that numerical modelling in general will be an integral part of this project. Model output will be compared with actual observations to improve the models’ behaviour in extreme weather situations. 5. Quantification of change in frequency, magnitude and location of severe weather events under changing climatic conditions. A reduction in the sea-ice extent and large scale feedbacks are examples of mechanisms that can potentially change the present profile of such events. All such factors should be enumerated and analysed.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Theme 1: Improvement of the description and modelling of extreme weather events in the Arctic region. Theme 2: Quantification of the effect of future climate change on Arctic weather extremes, as well as investigating current trends. Theme 3: Better understanding of the linkages between planetary motion and mesoscale severe weather events.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
This is the complete list of the participating institutions in alphabetical order: Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway McGill University, Canada Météo France Norwegian Met Office, Oslo, Norway UCAR/NCAR University Centre in Svalbard, Norway University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA University of Bergen, Norway University of Manitoba, Canada University of Reading, UK University of Western Ontario, Canada In addition, we have established cooperative contact with GFDex (via Dr. Ian Renfrew) and GLJ (via Dr. Haraldur Olafson). Those are related IPY proposals dedicated to studying severe winds at the coast of Greenland.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
We intend to perform measurements in the Arctic region to supplement the available observational data. The exact locations have not yet been fixed.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 03/2007 – 03/2009            
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
For observations, it is our intention to make use of the facilities of the University Centre in Svalbard, as well as existing meteorological stations. Dr. Joachim Reuder at the Geophysical institute in Bergen intends to make use of drones for in-situ observations. Several of the project members also have plans for various in-situ field work.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
The use of drones, including the training of personnel for that use, will leave behind a considerable legacy in terms of savvy and equipment. Otherwise, insofar as permanent observational instruments will be installed, these will most likely outlive the project and be used in the future.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Consortium
Own national polar operator
National agency

The use of existing infrastructure will be essential to the success of the project. The Norwegian Met Office and the University Centre in Svalbard will make their infrastructure available to the project. Drones, and the ability to operate them, are available through the Geophysical institute in Bergen.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
This proposal will be submitted to each national IPY committee for endorsement.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
New
This is a new autonomous project over the IPY timeframe.

How will the project be organised and managed?
Overall Management: Geophysical Institute at the University of Bergen. WP Leaders: Depending on the national funding.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
Given that parts of the project involve basic research, it is the intention to employ Ph.D. students as well as post-doctoral scholars. Judging by the current media interest in extreme weather events, we think that the press in the countries involved will be very interested in relaying the results to the public.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document)?
Existing and new observational data will be compiled and made freely available to the scientific community. It is one of our objectives to produce a comprehensive set of observations of extreme weather events in the Arctic region.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Joint funding between national programmes.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
Other project members: Dr. Idar Barstad, Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen. Dr. Rasmus Benestad, Norwegian Meteorological Institute. Tom Bracegirdle, Dept. of Meteorology, University of Reading. Dr. Michel Dequé, Météo France. Dr. Chris Ferro, Dept. of Meteorology, University of Reading. Dr. John Hanesiak, University of Manitoba. Dr. Inger Hanssen-Bauer, Norwegian Meteorological Institute. Dr. Kevin Hodges, Dept. of Meteorology, University of Reading. Dr. Nils Gunnar Kvamstø, Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen. Dr. Joachim Reuder, Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen. Dr. Anna Sjøblom, University Centre in Svalbard. Dr. Ronald Stewart, McGill University.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Mr Erik Kolstad
Allégaten 70
Bergen
5007
Norway

Tel: +47 5558 2602
Mobile: +47 4112 2457
Fax: +47 5558 9883
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation

Other Information