Expressions of Intent for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

CANADA #187: Predicting the influence of climate change on organic carbon cycling in Hudson Bay and consequences for contaminant levels  (Predicting the influence of climate change on organic carbon cycling in Hudson Bay and consequences for contaminant levels)

Outline
Organic carbon cycling in Arctic marine systems is expected to be highly sensitive to climate change and critically important in terms of feedback. Nevertheless, the impacts of projected warming (reduced sea ice, etc) remain very difficult to predict. General predictions of increased primary production (as reduced ice cover allows more light and more mixing) and increased vertical export are complicated by potential changes in access to nutrients, freshwater supply, remineralization rates, and pelagic community structure. The development and validation of more specific predictions rests on a detailed understanding of the important components of the organic carbon cycle, including terrigenous organic carbon inputs, primary productivity, the role of dissolved organic carbon, flux through the water column, processes at the seafloor, and burial. There are few systems for which these comprehensive data have been compiled, and few systems for which these components can be feasibly tracked through time, to determine their specific responses to change. We propose to use Hudson Bay - the large, isolated continental shelf sea in northern Canada - as a model system for studying the impacts of climate change on the organic carbon cycle of Arctic marine systems. Hudson Bay is an ideal study system and sentinel for change because it is virtually a self-contained system (well-constrained terrigenous inputs and marine exchanges), and it is expected to undergo relatively massive changes over a very short period of time. Already, there is evidence suggesting that climate-related changes have occurred, and changes within this system are likely to impact both sensitive wildlife (marine mammals and polar bears) and humans. We propose to study organic carbon production, transport, flux, preservation and accumulation with the objective of understanding the organic carbon cycle as it functions within the system as a whole. Studies aimed at understanding climate variability, land-ocean and ocean-ice-atmosphere interactions, and carbon and contaminant cycling in Hudson Bay will be initiated in 2005-2006 under Theme 3 of ‘ArcticNet’ (Canadian Network of Centres of Excellence). We propose to build on and expand these initial studies to develop a detailed baseline organic carbon budget for the system, and a model integrating the key processes. Recent changes in organic carbon cycling will be evaluated, and the model will be used to make specific regional forecasts about organic carbon dynamics. We also propose to couple the organic carbon measurements to contaminants data, to address an immediate need for a contaminants model for the region. This model will complement efforts to monitor and predict human contaminant exposure, which are already underway (NCP). A coupled organic carbon-contaminants model will be constructed to support interpretation of observed spatial and temporal contaminant trends, and provide a basis for projecting consequences of climate change for contaminant levels.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
The project will produce the first comprehensive data set for the important components of the organic carbon cycle in Hudson Bay, as well as coupled contaminant data. Change: The detailed baseline organic carbon budget developed in this project is the first step towards quantifying carbon cycling processes and therefore allowing us to determine which parts of the cycle will be most impacted by climate change and how such impacts will affect other processes linked to carbon, for example lipophilic contaminants. The development of a coupled organic carbon-contaminant model will provide a basis for projecting the consequences of climate change for contaminant levels. Global Linkages: Arctic regions account for large quantities of archived terrestrial carbon and, in particular, Hudson Bay is surrounded by land strongly influenced by permafrost. Detailed organic carbon budgets for this region, therefore, have significance for estimating the impact of cryospheric change on global carbon budgets.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
We are interested in collaborating with other researchers who have been studying the organic carbon cycle in arctic marine systems, as well as researchers examining biogeochemical controls on contaminants.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
The field work will be focussed on Hudson Bay and the surrounding drainage basin.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 04/07 – 09/07      04/08 – 09/08      
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
1. Ship-based work will need a science-capable icebreaker. We will be deploying and recovering sediment traps as well as collecting water (rosette), sediment (box core), particulate matter (in situ pumps), and biological samples (net hauls). Clean lab facilities will be required on the ship. These activities are likely compatible with other proposed activities. 2. Ice-based work will require a logistical base (Churchill) and air support to collect samples in late winter. A smaller coastal vessel will be required for the open-water season.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

We would rely on CCG for the icebreaker support, but the coastal operations could be conducted in collaboration with ArcticNet and activities originating from the Churchill Northern Studies Centre, and/or by contracting local support.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
This pre-proposal has been reviewed and is being submitted by the Canadian Steering Committee (CSC). Ongoing discussions will integrate this pre-proposal into a larger network of related national and international initiatives. The CSC has initially sorted this pre-proposal into: Ecosystems Terrestrial Processes

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
yes
This project builds on work proposed under Theme 3 of ArcticNet and will take advantage of secured research platforms such as the CCGS Amundsen.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The project would be led by a Canadian Scientist and would include both Government and University scientists. Depending on the continuity with ArcticNet work, the organization and management could build on the ArcticNet model.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
Because our research findings will contribute to the interpretation of spatial and temporal trends in contaminant levels in traditional food items, we expect there to be opportunities to communicate results indirectly, through existing programs such as the INAC Northern Contaminants Program (NCP). We will also contribute to the outreach and education activities initiated under ArcticNet.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document)?
The data would be archived and managed by DFO (IOS and FWI), which already has a system in place for managing contaminants/aquatic data.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Although the project will build on work initiated under ArcticNet, which has national as well as corporate sponsors, new funding will be required to conduct the outlined project.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
Estimated budget ~ $400K over three years to support sampling and analytical costs.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Robie Macdonald
Department of Fisheries and Oceans
PO Box 6000
Sidney BC
V8L 4B2
Canada

Tel: 250-363-6409
Mobile:
Fax: 250-363-6807
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation

Other Information