Expressions of Intent for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

CANADA #49:Climate Change and Northern Butterflies  (Butterflies)

Outline
This project will assess some of the possible effects of climate change on northern butterflies (Lepidoptera). Climate change, with warmer temperatures, may enhance survivorship and allow range expansion of some butterfly species (Crozier 2004). Some species may shift from biennial to annual life cycles. Climate change may also negatively impact arctic butterfly populations. Increasing ground icing, and icing in the snow pack (ACIA 2004) may reduce survival of overwintering stages by reducing snow insulation. Increasing cloud cover and summer precipitation (ACIA 2004) may reduce reproduction by limiting adult activity, nectaring, mating and ovipositing. Peterson et al. (2004) modelled mid to long term climate change effects and predicted disjunctions in species’ distributions. Empirical data are lacking on short-term effects of changing weather conditions. We propose to assess the impact of climate change by: (i) surveys of adult abundance at a set of representative sites as baseline data for future reference, (ii) doing a site-specific study on effects of enhanced temperature and moisture regimes on adult and larval summer survival, and larval overwinter survival. We will do Adult Surveys at 6 sites in the western Canadian arctic, and potentially other sites in the Russian and Alaskan mainland. Focussed work will be on Herschel Island, with a relatively rich butterfly fauna (Layberry et al. 1998), and reduced confounding effects of immigration on abundance. Focal circumpolar species might be one or more of Colias hecla, Colias tyche, Colias nastes, Boloria improba, Boloria polaris, Erebia rossii, Erebia disa, Erebia fasciata, Oeneis bore, Oeneis melissa, Oeneis polixenes (Layberry et al. 1998). Baseline adult surveys will be replicated geo-referenced transects at each site, with data on weather conditions to control for their effects on adult flight. They will provide: (i) a temporal reference to predicted changes in distribution of current tundra species, and also those whose ranges might shift northward; (ii) an opportunity to validate the occurrence of some rare species with few Canadian locations (e.g., the Johansen’s sulphur, Colias johanseni); (iii) a temporal reference to changes in future abundance. The detailed study on Herschel Island will address adult activity, and larval growth and survival. For adults, we will measure flight season and daily activity levels (transect surveys) and ovipositing rates (direct observation). For larvae and pupae in summer, we will measure growth and development rates under experimental and ambient weather conditions with in situ growth chambers which will change insolation, temperature and moisture regimes. ACIA. 2004. Impacts of a Warming Arctic. Cambridge University Press, London. http://www.acia.uaf.edu Crozier, L. 2004. Warmer Winters drive butterfly range expansion by increasing survivorship. Ecology 85(1): 231-241. Layberry, R.A. et al.. The Butterflies of Canada. University of Toronto Press, Toronto. 280pp. Peterson, A.T. et al.. Modeled climate change effects on distributions of Canadian butterfly species. Can. J. Zool. 82(6): 851-858.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
Theme 1: We will document spatial and temporal patterns in current butterfly abundance. This segment of the arctic food web has not been well documented, including the distribution of some rare species. Theme 2: Spatial and temporal patterns in current butterfly abundance will allow measures of change by direct comparison to future surveys, and to predicted changes from models. Data on the effect of environmental factors on butterfly survival will help refine models of future distribution and resilience in a changing climate. Theme 3: Arctic tundra data will allow stronger inference to alpine tundra situations globally, and also to other polar regions that cannot be sampled at this time.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
We will work with Oleg Kosterin and Pavel Gorbunov (Russia), and American researchers (potentially J. Hellman) to establish similar sampling and experimental work in Russia and the Alaskan north slope. Crispin Guppy has an established working relationship with the Russian and American researchers. Our budget reflects a set of Adult Butterfly surveys in Russia.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
We will do Canadian Adult Surveys at relatively productive and accessible sites between Bernard Harbour, NWT, in the east, and the Alaska-Yukon border in the west (e.g., Bernard Harbour; Parry Peninsula; Anderson River; Tuktoyaktuk, Herschel Island, Old Crow Basin, Dempster Highway). This part of the arctic is predicted to experience substantial change, and is relatively close to tree-line and therefore future faunal shifts. Sites of Russian Adult Surveys have yet to be determined. The detailed field work will take place on Herschel Island.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 06/07-08/07      06/08-08/08      
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Fixed wing transport plane for access to Herschel I., and Survey Sites. Potential use of helicopter for transit between survey sites. Research camp / field station (wall tents ?) at Herschel Island, and mobile field camp for each Team. A central communications base and storage facility for safety and expediting (e.g., Inuvik). The survey sites may be useful for other projects, including those studying vegetation communities, invertebrates, or small mammals. Joint logistics are conceivable if we can overlap in time.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
There will be no physical infrastructure. We will leave a set of geo-referenced sample transects for future replication.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

The logistics primarily depend on an expediting base (e.g., polar operator in Tuk or Inuvik) in western Canada, and one in Russia, and chartered commercial aircraft for transport.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
This pre-proposal has been reviewed and is being submitted by the Canadian Steering Committee (CSC). Ongoing discussions will integrate this pre-proposal into a larger network of related national and international initiatives. The CSC has initially sorted this pre-proposal into: Ecosystems Terrestrial Processes

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
YES
Autonomous. However it is within the mandate of the Biological Survey of Canada – Arthropods.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The Lead Contact will organise and manage the project, under the direction of a project business plan developed with other project members, and with a Certified Accountant. Survey work will be done by teams of two (two teams in Canada and two in Russia) visiting 3 sites each in June/July. The focussed work on Herschel I. will require a team of three (June through August). All project members will provide specified services and submit invoices for professional time and expenses upon completion of those services. Services will include specified field work, compilation of databases, voucher specimen acquisition, detailed reports, and papers submitted for publication.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
We will review existing databases (e.g., Inuvialuit) for traditional knowledge on butterfly occurrences. We will train a northern community resident to be a member of each survey team, so as to build capacity to do future survey work close to communities. The team for the focussed work will include a northern community member.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document)?
The project team will develop data collection protocols, with all data recorded digitally, and presented at a project webpage. We will submit data to the Canadian National Collection of Insects and Arthropods (Agriculture Canada), and to the body chosen by IPY to oversee data storage. No data will be sensitive or confidential.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
The project will require funding from the Canadian IPY secretariat. Principal costs are salaries and transport. Canadian Surveys will cost $87,400 per annum (incl. $48,000 salaries, and $36,900 transport). Russian surveys may be less depending on the need for funding salaries. Herschel I. work will cost $48,500 per annum (incl. $36,000 salaries, and $10,000 transport). Total Canadian cost for two years is roughly $271,800.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
We are keen to partner with other similar projects on butterflies. We believe costs can be reduced by sharing transport with some other projects. We will actively seek cooperation and involvement of Government agencies, and involvement from an Academic/research Institute (e.g., grad student). All three project members have a long history as consulting biologists, and are Registered Professional Biologists. Crispin Guppy and Norbert Kondla are experts on butterflies. Each has co-authored a major provincial book on butterflies – Butterflies of British Columbia (Guppy) and Alberta Butterflies (Kondla) and both have published numerous scientific papers on butterflies. Maria Leung has worked on species at the northern extent of their ranges and has insight on potential implications of disturbance and climate change on animal populations.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Crispin Guppy
Consulting Biologist and Land Use Planner
4627 Quesnel-Hydraulic Road
Quesnel, BC
V2J 6P8
Canada

Tel: 250-747-1512
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Other project members and their affiliation

Other Information