Expressions of Intent for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet  (SOGI)

Outline
The greatest store of fresh water in the northern hemisphere is held within the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). During the last interglacial, when temperatures were only a few degrees warmer than today, this ice sheet was substantially smaller than at present (Cuffey and Marshall, 2000). The IPCC predicts that, over the next century, temperatures will increase to Eemian values. If the GIS responds to this change as it did in the Eemian, a quantity of water equal to 2-3 m worth of global sea-level will be decanted into the North Atlantic with potentially dramatic consequences for the stability of the thermohaline circulation. Unfortunately, whilst meltwater runoff and iceberg calving each currently contribute ~50% of Greenland’s annual ablation, the precise mechanisms by which either process could cause ‘collapse’ of the GIS remains unclear. Ablation of the ice sheet could be increased by changes in both energy inputs (e.g. through rising temperatures) and ice dynamics (by enhanced iceberg calving and advection of ice to lower elevations). Recent evidence suggests that warmer summers (e.g. Steffen et al, 2004) and enhanced glacier flow (e.g. Zwally et al, 2002) may be evident over large parts of the GIS with significant implications for mass balance. However, estimates of runoff from the GIS are critically constrained by inadequate characterisation of the processes of superimposed ice and refrozen ice formation. Similarly, the sensitivity between meltwater inputs to moulins/crevasses and the dynamic response of outlet glaciers around the margins of the GIS remains poorly understood. This project will investigate the controls on mass balance and dynamics of an outlet glacier of the GIS. More specifically, the project will undertake glaciological field investigations along a flow-parallel transect from the western Greenland ice margin to the ice-sheet plateau to measure parameters required to run a coupled ice sheet and surface energy balance model and in conjunction with remotely sensed data, will determine: i) Surface melt (measured and predicted) using Automatic Weather Station data and an energy balance model; ii) The proportion of surface melt that subsequently refreezes in the snow/firn or as superimposed ice; iii) Variations in meltwater input to the en/subglacial drainage system through monitoring the discharge of supraglacial streams feeding moulins. iv) The dynamic response of the ice to variations in meltwater input via GPS surveys; and v) Basin wide variations in surface melt (via CryoSat) and ice-dynamics (InSAR/Landsat) using airborne and satellite data. In summary, the key driver behind this project is the realisation that whilst large amounts of research have been undertaken using data from remote sensing platforms and the PARCA programme, there is still a critical lack of field data that will help constrain the key processes that will determine the future mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
A key component is the generation of new datasets. Most notably from using a down-borehole neutron probe to assess how the proportion of surface meltwater that refreezes in the snowpack/firn changes along a transect running from the equilibrium line to the dry snow zone. To date, the lack of fieldwork combining observations of both mass balance and ice dynamics along a transect from the margin of the GIS ensures the uniqueness of this research in Arctic science (Theme 1). Numerical modelling will be used to assess present and future rates of change in runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet (Theme 2). An improved understanding of the mechanisms affecting runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet is critically required for oceanographers investigating the stability of the thermohaline circulation (Theme 3).

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
This research project is both international and inter-disciplinary, involving groups in the UK, Denmark, Canada and Sweden. The collaboration ensures expertise in a variety of areas including field, remote sensing and modelling skills combined with considerable ground and airborne logistical support from experienced Greenland researchers.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Fieldwork will take place on the Greenland Ice Sheet to the east of Kangerlussuaq where the combined KISS (Kangerlussuaq International Science Support) and VECO Polar Resources office is located. Field data will be gathered along a 100km transect from an outlet glacier at the ice-sheet margin (50 15’W 67 07’N) to the dry snow zone at ~2300m. Access to the ice sheet will be by helicopter and through Nausta (Sweden) using their high performance ‘glacier vehicles’.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 04/07 - 09/07      04/08 - 09/08      
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Snow vehicles (spring) and helicopters (summer). Satellite data from the CryoSat mission. Existing field station (KISS) at Kangerlussuaq with safety comms link. Fixed wing geophysical aircraft for radar and laser altimetry.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
The ease of access from KISS provides significant potential for maintaining a mass balance stake network and meteorological monitoring for future years. It is also hoped that the continued international support of KISS will help ensure its existence as the research base in Western Greenland for future generations of scientists.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Consortium
Commercial operator

Funding will be needed from national funding bodies with support from the UK NERC envisaged. However, most equipment required for the fieldwork is already available as is access to data from CryoSat assuming a successful mission. Access to the ice sheet is simplified by use of the Nausta facility and their vehicular access.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
With current IPY arrangements in the UK, it is hoped that endorsement at national and international level will be secured at the same time.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
New
This is a new project that builds on research by the participants investigating glacier mass balance and dynamics through fieldwork, modelling and remote sensing. In particular, it builds on recent fieldwork on the Greenland Ice Sheet for CryoSat CalVal activity and will obtain additional data supporting the CryoSat mission.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The project will be managed from Edinburgh by Nienow. He and the additional Co-I’s and collaborators have the breadth of glaciological expertise necessary to undertake the proposed work with support for fieldwork (Nienow/Mair/Sharp), modelling (Siegert) satellite imagery (Shepherd) and airborne geophysical survey (Keller). International collaboration with Nausta and KISS will ensure excellent on-site logistics. In addition, we will hold workshops for internal project management and organisation. We will establish a project web site, where preliminary results and progress reports will be made available to collaborators.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
We will engage fully in existing science outreach initiatives at Edinburgh University. We also will aim to gain media coverage of our work (e.g. radio/TV documentaries) and already have good links with BBC Scotland in Glasgow and the BBC Natural History Unit in Bristol (through earlier work on the recent BBC landmark series “British Isles: A Natural History”).

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document)?
Data acquired by this project will be made available to other IPY projects and to the wider scientific community through the appropriate data centres, such as the World Data Centres for Glaciology (in Cambridge, U.K. and Boulder, Colorado). Data will also be made available to collaborators via a project website.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
The main source of funding will be sought from the UK Natural Environment Research Council. The close proximity to the KISS base at Kangerlussuaq makes the field area highly accessible and in conjunction with resources already available, project costs will not be excessive.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
In spring 2004, Nienow and Mair went up on to the Greenland Ice Cap east of Kangerlussuaq with Nausta drivers along their snow-road to an elevation of 1000m ~ 25 km from the ice sheet margin. It was immediately obvious, that there was an outstanding opportunity to undertake exciting fieldwork on the Greenland Ice Sheet, which under normal circumstances would require complex and expensive logistical support. This project would take advantage of this opportunity and would be extremely timely given the imminence of IPY and the recent disturbing observations of significant change in the Greenland Ice Sheet. Nienow and Shepherd are PI’s on the CryoSat CalVal programme with access to CryoSat data which would add further merit to the project. In addition, the lack to date of fieldwork combining observations of both mass balance and ice dynamics along a transect from the margin of the GIS ensures the uniqueness of this research.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Peter Nienow
School of Geosciences
University of Edinburgh
Drummond St, Edinburgh
EH8 9XP
UK

Tel: 00-44-131-650-9139
Mobile: 00-44-779-052-3164
Fax: 00-44-131-650-2524
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation

Other Information