Expressions of Intent for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Climatic Changes of Clouds and Main Atmospheric Parameters over Polar Regions  (CLOMAP)

Outline
400 words max Clouds are one of the most significant components of the global climate system because they are the main regulator of solar radiation and are a necessary condition for precipitation. What are the interrelations between climate change of temperature, humidity, and wind regimes, polar ice melting, and changes in cloudiness at polar regions? The conditions people encounter, their health and business largely depend on the answer to this question. To obtain a reliable estimation of changes in cloud parameters, it is necessary to have long time series of detailed cloud data (amount, bases, and tops, thickness and etc.). A database of global radiosonde observations (CARDS dataset), accumulated for a relatively long period, and CE-method for determining cloud boundaries and cloud amount, based on humidity and temperature vertical profiles (developed Chernykh and Eskridge), produce reliable and objective data describing the time changes in cloud structure. Long-term changes in the primary parameters of cloud vertical macrostructure (boundaries, frequency, thickness and number of cloud layers) and the thermodynamic upper-air variables (temperature, humidity, wind) will be studied for three atmosphere layers (low, middle and high levels) over Arctic and Antarctic regions. Also correlations of surface temperature and cloud parameters will be calculated and analysed. The results obtained on base radiosonde observations for Arctic region will be compared with the same results for eastern, western and central part of Antarctic region and results about climatic changes of cloudiness obtained on base surface and satellite observations. Project produces more objective cloud data compared to visual observations (for example, for middle and high clouds when overcast low clouds are present) and has same skill day or night independently of visibility; this is especially important in the Arctic and Antarctic regions which have half a year of darkness.Trends of cloud and atmosphere parameters will be calculated by two methods: The first based upon the observed values using time correlations and the second uses monthly averaged values.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
CLOMAP directly addresses IPY themes 1 to 5: 1) The project will help to understand of the climate change of clouds over Arctic and Antarctic regions better. Correlations of surface temperature and cloud parameters will be calculated and analysed. 2) Trends of clouds and atmosphere parameters will be calculated by two methods: The first based upon the observed values using time correlations and the second uses monthly averaged values. First method gives to us more realistic estimates of the trends than results obtained using monthly averaged values, because mean values can be calculated by using a full month of observations or several observations, but they have the same weight in traditional trend calculation. 3) It will be possibility to comparisons results about climate change of clouds, obtained on base surface and satellite observations (from view up and view down). 4) Created dataset of cloud parameters will be useful for radiation balance over polar regions. 5) Results will be helpful for aviation and space industry.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
Cloud data obtained during international projects SHEBA and ISCCP will be used for comparison with results obtained on base radiosonde observations by using CE-method. A radiosonde date created during SCAR READER Project will be used also. Only joint international efforts allow to make significant progress in investigation and understanding climate changes of clouds over Arctic and Antarctic regions.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Geographically, the present study is focused on the Eastern Antarctic stations: Novolazarevskaya (-70.77ºS, 11.83ºE); Syowa (-69.00ºS, 39.58º E); Molodezhnaya (-67.67ºS, 45.85ºE); Mawson (-67.60ºS, 62.87ºE); Davis (-68.58ºS, 77.97ºE); Mirny (-66.55ºS, 93.02ºE); Casey (-66.25ºS, 110.6ºE); Dumont D’Urville (-66.67ºS, 140.0ºE); Macquarie Island (-54.50ºS, 156.9ºE); McMurdo (-77.85ºS, 158.95ºE); Western Antarctic stations: Bellingshausen (-62.20ºS, 301.07ºE); Halley (-75.50ºS, 333.35ºE); Newmayer (-70.67ºS, 351.75ºE); continental Antarctic stations: Amundsen Scott (-90.00ºS, 0.00º); Vostok (-78.45ºS, 106.87ºE).Some aerological station placed around Arctic Ocean will be selected for study also. (Stations placed in East and West Siberia, Alaska and islands will be selected for study.)

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 01/07-12/08            
Antarctic: 01/07-12/08      01/07-12/08      

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Historical date of main atmosphere parameters and current date from existing aerological stations, operated on a year-round basis, will be used for realization of project. No specific logistical requirements have to be met for this project.Stations will be shared with other projects during the IPY.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
YES - Dataset of cloud vertical macrostructure parameters over polar regions will be created that will be available for scientific society after the IPY.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

“operator” in this case qualifies land based Antarctic and Arctic Aerological Stations and standard radiosondes

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
YES - CLOMAP endorsed at national level.We ask endorsement from national IPY committees in Argentina, Australia, Brasil, Canada, Germany, UK, USA, Norway, Russia and Sweden and are expecting response during January, 2005.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
YES
CLOMAP is essentially new project, drawn together for the IPY.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The science plan of the project will be developed and after it will be realized.Joint activities will be proposed in order to maximize results.All problem will discussed by e-mail or workshops.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
All early results, journal reports and pictures can be disseminated to home universities, general or specific websites.Students will be drawn to study polar clouds.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document)?
The database of global radiosonde observations (CARDS dataset), accumulated for a relatively long period can be used in the proposed program CLOMAP for Arctic and Antarctic regions.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
It is proposed to fund the project CLOMAP through the Federal Programme “World Ocean”, Russian National IPY Program and logistic support by Russian Antarctic Expedition

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
In our view the Antarctic region should be selected for research for following reasons:1. the problem of polar ice melting, which can lead to flooding of coastal cites; 2. highest warming was observed in this region (for station Faraday); 3. specific distribution of ozone in atmosphere in this region; 4. surface observations of clouds in this region are difficult to make due low temperature and the long polar dark time; 5. results obtained by Comiso (2000) of trends in Antarctic surface temperature calculated for 20 and 45 years time series based on surface and satellite measurements have shown different tendencies for some stations;6. other studies of surface temperature trends have different signs for closely placed stations; 7. increasing of cloud amount (up to 15-20 %) at the South Pole, detected by Neff in 1999, was described in the documents of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as “dramatic”; 8. several countries have meteorological observing stations in the Antarctic region, this fact give to us the real possibility to estimate results for different models of radiosondes.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Irina Chernykh
All-Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information – World Data Centre
6, Korolev St,
Obninsk, Kaluga reg
249020
Russia

Tel: (08439) 74985
Mobile:
Fax: (095) 2552225
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation

Other Information