Expressions of Intent for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Holocene climates of the North Atlantic Arctic: a context for 20th century warming  (Climate change in the North Atlantic Arctic)

Outline
The northern North Atlantic includes the two centers of Northern Hemisphere ocean ventilation. Changes in ventilation rates in the past have produced dramatic downstream changes in climate, with teleconnections throughout much of the global climate system. Northward-flowing warm Atlantic waters provide about a third of the heat to the Arctic, with Fram Strait the key gateway between the Arctic Ocean and the global ocean. The Atlantic sector is also home to the Greenland Ice Sheet, and many smaller glaciers in Scandinavia and NE Canada that are responsive to Holocene climate change, and influence sea level and planetary albedo. As such, the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic is expected to be the most sensitive to past and future changes, so the signal-to-noise ratio in paleo records is stronger there than elsewhere in the Arctic. Historical records that document climate change during the Little Ice Age support this conclusion. Observational and instrumental records now show the Arctic to be changing rapidly. But the essential question that cannot be addressed either by the existing instrumental records, or sophisticated monitoring is whether the current changes are unprecedented. We know that low-frequency (multi-centennial to millennial) climate fluctuations have occurred throughout the Holocene. Understanding such changes are embedded in the goals of many research programs focusing on modes of climate variability. Many individual research projects, as well as several focused national and international initiatives have as a goal the reconstruction of Holocene climates in specific geographic areas. This proposal focuses on high-resolution records of terrestrial paleoclimates through the Holocene (10 to 50 year resolution) using multiple proxies. Our proposal addresses a specific research program from the North American side, and outlines means to facilitate scientific exchange between the international community. Across the Arctic, lacustrine archives contain the most accessible and widely distributed terrestrial proxy records for Holocene paleoclimates. We are targeting lacustrine records of paleoclimates from the eastern Canadian Arctic. Lakes near the margin of the former Laurentide Ice Sheet typically contain at least 10,000 years of non-glacial sediment. We will rely on three established proxies widely used in similar reconstructions of Holocene climatic change for quantitative estimates of climate: chironomid assemblages, C, H and O isotopes, and biogenic silica. Similar studies are well underway in Greenland, Iceland and Scandinavia. We propose to convene an international workshop to synthesize similar records throughout the North Atlantic Arctic. We suggest that IGBP – PAGES might be the best organization to organize such a meeting. Similar efforts are being suggested for the marine realm and ice core research. Once these groups meet and synthesize records, a more general meeting on the Holocene of the circum-Arctic with the ocean-atmosphere modeling communities would be beneficial.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
This project will contribute to understanding change in the Arctic (IPY Theme 2) by placing 20th century climatic change into a longer-term context of low-frequency climatic variability. It will link the efforts of paleo-scientists from many countries and facilitate a pan-Arctic synthesis.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
The synthesis will require involvement by the international community of paleo scientists. Those who are studying proxy climate records from around the Arctic will be encouraged to participate. Our international contacts are: Aslaug Geirsdottir, University of Iceland Hans Petter Sejrup, University of Bergen, Norway Chris Casledine, Exeter University, UK

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
The field component of the North American component of the this proposal is the eastern coasts of Labrador and Baffin Island. Similar studies will be on-going in other terrestrial sites in the North Atlantic Arctic.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: May or August, 2005, 2006, 2007            
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
None, other than an existing facilities.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
Unlikely

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
Meets specific objectives of SEARCH. Also, fits well with the stated objectives of US NSF ARCSS initiative and NSF Earth System History Program

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Exp
Similar studies are ongoing priorities of many polar nations. This proposal seeks a means to facilitate cross-fertilization between nationaland international programs, as well as a specific North American research component.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The North American field and analytical program will be managed by the PIs and graduate students. To facilitate international collaboration and synthesis we will seek support from IGBP-PAGES and its Arctic program, CAPE (Circum-Arctic PaleoEnvironments), to widely advertise and run international meetings/workshops.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
We expect two phases of education/outreach/communication. The initial research results of the North American research teams will be largely published in the peer-reviewed literature. Synthesis of the terrestrial records of the North Atlantic Arctic through the Holocene will have a much broader appeal to a wider segment of the scientific community and the general public. The larger synthesis of land/ice core/marine records, coupled with modeling will have an even larger audience, including policy communities.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document)?
Primary data will be archived in the European and/or American paleoclimate data repositories.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
The North American research component will have to be funded by a grant from the US NSF. Modest coring efforts are included in a proposal currently being considered at NSF, as well as graduate student research activities at Colorado. International meetings will need to derive their funding from additional sources.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
Because many of the scientific goals embedded in this proposal are already in progress, the IPY provides an ideal impetus for broad international participation in a synthesis effort.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Pro Gifford Miller
INSTAAR and Geological Sciences
University of Colorado at Boulder
Boulder CO
80309-0450
USA

Tel: 303.492.6962
Mobile:
Fax: 303.492.6388
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation

Other Information