Expressions of Intent for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Integrated ARCTIC OCEAN OBSERVING SYSTEM  (iAOOS)

Outline
State-of-the-art climate models predict that the perennial sea-ice of the Arctic Ocean will disappear in late summer within a few decades or less. Important questions remain as to whether this expectation is justified, and if so when and with what climatic effect. Such a dramatic physical affront to the ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere system in high northern latitudes, corresponding to a change in surface albedo from more than 0.8 to less than 0.3 over a surface larger than Europe, is bound to have radical effects on climate on a regional–to-global scale, and on human activity on a hemispheric scale, with immediate impacts on the indigenous inhabitants of the circum-Arctic region and the ecosystem on which they depend. Past observational efforts with incomplete coverage and conventional sensor systems have provided partial records of sufficient length to glimpse that Arctic changes were underway on annual-to-decadal time-scales and to hint at their climatic importance. Here, under the stimulus of the IPY we assemble the scientific expertise and advanced sensor systems of North America, Europe and parts of Asia in an attempt to view the changing ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere of high northern latitudes as a complete system for the first time. The timing is critical. Climatic forcing has been extreme in recent decades. The system we will observe has moved beyond the range of our past experience and understanding of the system so that a new and more-complete observational base is urgently required, And to meet this need, vital, smart and often autonomous observing techniques never before available are now developed and in place, or are under test or in prospect. Though the core element of this proposal is the intensive observing of the Arctic Ocean itself, a substantial component of Arctic variability originates in subarctic seas, and in turn, the major climatic and societal impacts of Arctic change will take effect via ocean transfers south through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and western Nordic Seas. The ocean programme of AOOS is defined by all five of these elements (shelves, boundaries, deep-basins and inputs and outputs through gateways) and together they define its domain.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
By assembling, under the stimulus of the IPY, the most comprehensive observing system ever devoted to the Northern Ocean and its cryosphere, including extending the available observational series in space, time, complexity and relevance, the intention is to understand the evolving changes in the ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere system of Arctic/subarctic seas and improve their representation in models. The expected gain is in the predictability of the system and in the ability of society to mitigate for or adapt to these changes. Thus the major target is Natural Science, but by addressing that target via Themes 1-4 of section 1.4 above, the intended end point is squarely focused on Theme 6, the Human Dimension.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
AOOS Science Plan initiated, compiled and approved by the international AOSB and CLIC Ctees. Implementation by pan-Arctic PIs coordinated by the SSGs of US-SEARCH (Study of Environmental Arctic Change) and EC-DAMOCLES and their ASOF subgroups. International coordination of shiptime. Shared sensor systems (eg ITP). Acoustic frequencies in common for sub-sea sensing, float/glider navigation and communications.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
AOOS domain is the entire domain over which change is imposed on the Arctic Ocean and through which Arctic change is imposed on the N Atlantic. Thus Arctic Ocean, circumarctic shelves and subarctic seas (Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Nordic seas).

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 2007 – 2009 +/- 1 year            
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Satellite remote sensing (especially CRYOSAT & ICESAT), surface ships (icebreakers & conventional), ice-tethered platforms, ice-surface met & sensor systems, moorings (current meters, ice-profiling sonar, CTD profilers), acoustic tomography, profiling floats and sea-gliders, air support for ice-borne instrument deployment, undersea communications systems, specialised tracer capture and analysis facilities, near real-time data transmission. Must be shareable with other projects

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
1) Continued long-term maintenance of a critical subset of instruments & measurements needed to understand/ predict the role of northern oceans and cryosphere in climate. 2) Occasional repeat intensive pan-arctic re-survey of the complete system at work, and 3) construction testing and introduction of improved predictive models, themselves lasting components of scientific infrastructure.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Consortium
Own national polar operator
Another national polar operator
National agency
Commercial operator
Own support
Other sources of support

1) Existing quipment stocks and PI involvement of individual agencies and 2) specialised commercial equipment and modelling enterprises together with 3) national shiptime scheduling and 4) supplemented/ coordinated by national and ’continental’ (N American and European) funding agencies with 4) global satellite coverage.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
Yes, The AOOS program was designed to address the ‘Global Change’ research priorities of the international Arctic Ocean Sciences Board and the WCRP Climate and Cryosphere programme and is endorsed by both. Its Science Plan was used as a demonstration project by the ICSU IPY Planning Group at its final (Paris) meeting in Sept 2004. See Sect 3.6 for National endorsements.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?

Decades of observations have shown partial glimpses of Arctic change, but we have never been afforded a view of the entire Arctic ocean-cryosphere system under change. In its geographic scope, intensity, completeness and in the novelty of its observing systems, iAOOS is essentially a new project, drawn together for the IPY. Long-term observing in the succeeding ‘legacy phase’ is a vital part of iAOOS goals but is likely to employ a reduced observing system.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The AOSB-CLIC Science Plan will provide the agreed pan-arctic structure. Implementation will follow the principal funding sources, with the AOOS-SEARCH (Study of Environmental Arctic Change) SSG under Peter Schlosser LDEO responsible for implementing the ‘North American’ part of this pan-Arctic Plan, including both NSF and NOAA projects plus companion Canadian and Pacific-Arctic efforts, and the AOOS-DAMOCLES SSG under Jean-Claude Gascard (LODYC) responsible for implementing the European and associated observing efforts. Issues of scientific coordination, gap-filling and two-way liaison with user communities will be managed and coordinated across two continents by the parent international AOSB and CLIC Committees.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
We plan a range of educational summer schools, including on board icebreakers, plus interactive websites and semi-permanent exhibits for communication and outreach. For 2-way interaction with indigenous communities, we identify two Groups as our primary advisors/collaborators on ‘human dimension’ issues. These are the International Network of Arctic Indigenous …Environmental Monitoring and Information Stations (AICEMI) and the Arctic Residents Network (ARN).

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document)?
iAOOS end-products will be presented to the user community throughweb technology (a higher order web-based visualisation system such as http://seaice. dk) and access to metadata using HTTP/FTP and OpeNDAP technology. Successful and relevant iAOOS end-products would be promoted via permanent and well established data centers such as the High Latitude Center of the EUMETSAT OSISAF (Ocean & Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility) and/or via the ICES and WCRP organisations. The length of any ‘privilege periods’, the role of World Data Centres and other specialised (eg cryospheric data) centers are under discussion.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Following notification through national Cttees and endorsement by the IPY-JC, funding would be by normal routes, eg by the Interagency WorkingGroup in USA, by a range of National Research Councils and Government Departments in Europe, and as full-cost or additional-cost partners in Sub-Priority 1.1.6.3 of EC Framework Programme 6.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
1) Our EoI is in process of being considered by the IPY National Cttees of UK, France, Germany, USA, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Poland, Russia, China and Japan. 2) The complete AOSB-CLIC Science Plan which forms the basis of iAOOS can be found at the ASOF website (http://asof.npolar.no) under ‘IPY planning’. 3) Though they form integral parts of this proposal, significant bi-continent and pan-Arctic subsets of AOOS such as the circumpolar Shelf-Basin Exchanges (SBE), the Geotraces program, the ice-tethered and subice sensor & communications systems and the Arctic boundary current arrays may be the subject of separate submissions to the IPY-JC so as to provide a fuller account of their science and coordination than can be achieved here.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Current Chair AOSB Tom Pyle
NSF
4201 Wilson Blvd
Arlington VA
22230
USA

Tel: 703-292-8029
Mobile:
Fax: 703 306-0648
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Other project members and their affiliation

Other Information