Expressions of Intent for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Polar Stratospheric Ozone Depletion and Future Changes  (Polar Ozone)

Outline
1. Background As a part of the International Geophysical Year in 1957, column ozone measurements were initiated at South Pole, Antarctica using Dobson spectrometers. The aim was to measure variations in ozone as a tracer to study the dynamics of the Antarctic stratosphere. In 1985, the annual stratospheric ozone depletion over Antarctica - the “Antarctic Ozone Hole”- was identified. In less than 5 years it was proven that the ozone hole was caused by human emitted fluorochlorocarbons (CFCs) and the ozone hole has become a globally recognized “poster child” for showing how humans can cause global scale changes. The discovery of the ozone hole and its association with the CFCs was the key factor that led to the Montreal Protocol to ban CFCs and the first international treaty to preserve the environment. The Arctic stratospheric ozone changes, though lesser in magnitude than the Antarctic ozone hole, are by no means of lesser importance. 2. Proposed IPY Activities to Address Specific questions There are a number of scientific questions related to polar ozone, both in the stratosphere and troposphere, which we will address. They include the following: 1. What are the trends in the extent and intensity of the ozone hole? When are we likely to see the “recovery” of the ozone hole? 2. What is the impact of ozone hole and Arctic ozone losses on the Earth’s climate system?3. What is the contribution of the Antarctic ozone hole to midlatitude ozone changes? Will these changes be altered and how?4. What is the impact of polar ozone losses on the chemistry in the lower regions?5. Are there indicators in the polar stratosphere that portend changes in the troposphere?6. What are the trends in tropospheric ozone concentrations in polar regions?7. What are the chemical processes and trends in polar marine boundary layer ozone destruction? 8. What are the impacts of the changing mix of emissions and the changing climate gases on the changes in polar ozone levels?

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
By bringing together a wide range of scientists to focus on the total ozone budget in the polar regions, it will be possible to address the first 5 IPY themes. Information gained in addressing the first 5 themes will provide input to Theme 6. Gaining a better understanding of the connections between polar stratospheric ozone processes and tropospheric ozone concentrations and trends in relation to anthropogenic emissions will provide for better predictors of future ozone concentrations in both the stratosphere and troposphere. One example of a crosscutting research opportunity is developing an understanding of the episodic, photolytic driven, total destruction of ozone in the marine boundary layer that occurs across the Arctic Basin in spring and summer, and the feedback of this destruction into the free troposphere. The area of this ozone destruction rivals the area shadowed by the Antarctic ozone hole, but involves orders of magnitude less ozone.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
Partners include scientists from the USA, Canada, Russia, Japan, European Union, among others. Facilities would include the monitoring stations, e.g., Barrow, Alaska; Alert and Eureka, Canada; Zeppelin, Svalbard; Summit, Greenland; and South Pole. The project will be carried out in close collaboration with WCRP’s SPARC project.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
The study of Arctic ozone would continue to draw from the data collected around the Arctic Basin as mentioned in 1.7 and similarly from the stations in Antarctica.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: n/a
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
There are ample and excellent facilities in and around the Arctic and Antarctic to conduct the proposed activities. Many of the facilities are presently conducting measurements applicable to the goals of the proposed project and many would be amenable to shared and cooperative activities.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
The project will leave an enhanced intellectual pool of scientists attuned to more efficient means of collecting, transferring, archiving and analysing polar ozone data.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Consortium
Own national polar operator
Another national polar operator
National agency
Military support
Commercial operator
Own support
Other sources of support

There is already a large effort and substantial resources being applied to the polar ozone depletion research. This activities proposed herein would build upon that base and possibly influence the redirection of some funds.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
The Polar Stratospheric Ozone Depletion and Future Recovery project has been endorsed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration from which it will draw scientific and funding support.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
No
The seeds of Polar Ozone project were sown in the IPY (1958) and have now grown into a many faceted international research community. This new activity will be a coordinating and focusing of talents and resources that already exist.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The ongoing polar ozone monitoring programs and associated research activities operated by the United States, Canada, Japan, Norway, Russia and Germany, to name a few, will in all likelihood continue their present operations through and beyond the IPY. The new activities proposed herein will be initiated and coordinated by Drs. A. Ravishankara, NOAA/Al and Russ Schnell, NOAA/CMDL, Boulder, Colorado who will form an international coordinating group from interested scientist involved in polar ozone monitoring and research.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
We will use international scientific meeting and reviewed papers to distribute the scientific results of the program, and popular media and agency outreach facilities to reach the general public.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document)?
Most of the programs we envision participating in this activity already submit their data to the requisite World Data Centers. We will encourage those that do not, to do so in a timely manner.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Most of the polar ozone monitoring and research programs are nationally funded. We propose to seek modest additional funds to provide coordination services, planning for coordinated polar measurements, and for holding a special session at an international scientific meeting.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
This project will grow substantially as eth coordinators canvass interested parties and define specific plans to address the scientific questions posed in 1.3.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Akkihebbal Ravishankara
R/AL2
325 Broadway
Boulder, Colorado USA
80305-3328
USA

Tel: (303) 497-5821
Mobile:
Fax: 303 497-5822
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation

Other Information