Expressions of Intent for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Polar stratospheric clouds and the ozone layer in relation to climate change  (Polar stratospheric clouds and the ozone layer in relation to climate change)

Outline
Recovery of the ozone layer will take place in a future climate, characterised by decreasing stratospheric temperatures and possibly increasing concentrations of water vapour. Measurements have established close correlations between chemical ozone depletion and temperatures sufficiently low for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSC), which are known to initiate ozone depletion through heterogeneous reactions and through removal of nitric acid (denitrification) via cloud particle sedimentation. Current models cannot represent the observed severe ozone depletion in past cold Arctic winters, demonstrating major uncertainties in our ability to predict the recovery of the ozone layer in a future climate. Part of this uncertainty could be due to insufficient representation in the models of increases in stratospheric water vapour which controls the formation of PSC. Another uncertainty lies in our understanding of processes behind denitrification. Only solid-phase PSC particles can be responsible for denitrification. Although solid phase PSC particles are frequently observed in the Arctic stratosphere, current theories for solid phase particle formation require much lower temperatures than usually occur in the Arctic stratosphere. This apparent paradox should be pursued experimentally through an international polar balloon campaign from Spitsbergen, as well as theoretically through microphysical simulations and global scale modelling. The main objective is a comprehensive investigation of synoptic-scale PSCs inside the cold polar vortex. Spitsbergen offers the unique opportunity for a European/US/Russian campaign to launch balloon-borne instruments at a very high latitude. Here the vortex contains the coldest air and largest PSC fields in the Arctic. In a combination of balloon-borne experiments with ground- and satellite-based atmospheric observations, substantial progress can be made to quantify physical properties of synoptic PSCs, formation of large solid particles, and denitrification. The experimental data will be used to improve microphysical modelling capabilities to be included in atmospheric models for reliable predictions of the future ozone layer. Detailed objectives include precise measurements of size and phase of PSC particles, a detailed characterisation of the gases interacting with the particles, especially H2O and HNO3. ENVISAT data will play a critical role especially in the distribution of HNO3 and of other trace gases. From the research station at Ny-Ålesund, ground-based lidar measurements of PSCs will be obtained to provide support to the balloon flights. Meteorological, microphysical, and atmospheric modelling work will focus on the conditions for PSC formation, using the data obtained, to predict the influence of PSC formation and denitrification on ozone depletion.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
The projects contributes to an understanding of the current status of the ozone layer (#1) and contributes to improved understanding of key process responsible for ozone depletion, thereby increasing our ability to predict the future state of the ozone layer(#2). As a complement to the SCOUT-O3 project, the global links between tropical, midlatitude and polar processes are investigated (#3), placing itself at the frontier of polar research (#4). The project takes advantage of a well established polar research infrastructure to address the global environmental problem of ozone depletion (#5) which is of particular concern for arctic societies (#6).

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
Closely associated with the EU-project SCOUT-O3 and based at the NDSC station in Ny-Ålesund, directly involving Alfred-Wegener-Institute(D), Danish-Meteorological-Institute(DK), U.-Wyoming(USA), Consiglio-Nazionale-delle-Ricerche(I), CAO(Russia), .

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
NDSC station at Ny-Ålesund/Svalbard for ground based measurements, and airport at Longyearbyen, Spitsbergen, for the balloon launches.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 11/06 – 02/07      11/07 – 02/08      
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Logistics for ground based observations and launch of smaller balloons available at the Koldewey station in Ny-Ålesund. Larger balloon could be launched from the airport at Longyearbyen. Local helicopter required for instrument recovery.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
No

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Own national polar operator
National agency
Commercial operator
Own support

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
The proposal has been endorsed scientifically by the reviwers of the SCOUT EU-project. Only due to financial reasons, this project could not be funded by the EC. The activity will be co-ordinated with others within the international and global SCOUT project.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?

The project complements the European Commission funded integrated project Stratosphere-Climate Links With Emphasis On The UTLS (SCOUT-O3) which mainly focuses on chemical-, cloud-, and transport-processes in the tropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) and the influence on the ozone layer at mid-latitudes, including the pole ward transport of water vapour.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The management shall be associated with SCOUT-O3. The organisation of the field campaigns will be performed by a steering group consisting of the instrument PIs of the balloon borne and the ground based instruments.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
The project will employ PhD students. Close links will be established to the local University at Svalbard (UNIS). Publication of results will be done via WWW and scientific publications. In particular an outreach web page will be set up. In addition, the well established means for publication and outreach of the EU-Project SCOUT will be used.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document)?
Data management, data protocol, data storage as for SCOUT-O3 (NILU database), ozone data to WOUDC, ground based data will be stored at the NDSC database, where it becomes public according to NDSC rules after 3 years.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Nationally funded, but many project partners also involved in SCOUT-O3

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
None

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Niels Larsen
Lyngbyvej 100
Copenhagen
DK-2100
Denmark

Tel: +45-3915-7414
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Other project members and their affiliation

Other Information