Expressions of Intent for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Climate and mass balance on glaciers in the Nordic countries  (CMBGN)

Outline
The climate of Nordic countries has been characterised by large and rapid changes during the last 100 years, which are believed to be driven to a large degree by changing conditions in the North Atlantic ocean. The changes in the climate have been clearly reflected in the advance and retreat of glaciers. The associated glacier mass balance variations have lead to substantial hydrological variability in many glacier fed rivers in these countries. Glaciological and hydrological variability is of local economic importance, in Iceland and Norway for example, due to many hydroelectric power plants in these countries, and also in Greenland where there are plans to build such power plants. Scientific studies of the climate and glaciers of the Nordic countries is also of a broader relevance as a part of an international effort to study the response of sub-polar glaciers to climate changes, the contribution of glaciers and small ice caps to the ongoing rise in global sea-level, and an improved assessment of interannual variability and trends in freshwater runoff into the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans. The response of Nordic glaciers to climate changes in the last decades has varied between climate settings. Glaciers have advanced in some maritime areas, while other glaciers have retreated during the same time. These spatial-temporal distribution patterns of glacier variations over short distances indicate the response of complex system to regional (likely in coastal areas) and to global/hemispheric (likely in more continental areas) changes in recent climate. Many Nordic glaciers are unusually accessible for research due to their proximity to inhabited areas and can therefore be used to obtain scientific information about changing glaciological conditions that are much more difficult to acquire in other areas of the Earth with similar climates. The surface and bedrock topography of many glaciers in the Nordic countries, in particular all the large ice caps in Iceland, has been mapped and extensive surface data have been collected on mass balance, ice flow velocity and meteorological parameters. In this project we propose to use the venue of the IPY to characterise the climatological and hydrological conditions of ice caps and glaciers in the Nordic countries, including the current geometry of some of the main ice caps using airborne laser scanning altimeter technology. Traditional mass balance observations will be complemented by short-term observations of transient snow/equilibrium lines supported by space images to explore new methods of glacier monitoring. The purpose this effort is to gather basic information about the current state of the glaciers with respect to which future changes may be compared. The observations will be focused on collecting short-term observational data in order to understand, explain and model the response of different parts of the regional system of Nordic glaciers to changes in climate. This will help to establish relationships between climate changes, mass balance, melt-water production and glacier dynamics on a larger scale than the size of a single glacier or ice cap, in an extension of previous studies of individual glaciers in many regions. Furthermore, the response of glaciers and glacier hydrology to past and possible future climate changes will be studied. Existing mass balance measurements contain a wealth of information about precipitation in glaciated areas. This information will be analysed and extended with meteorological model computations to produce precipitation maps for glaciers, ice caps and neighbouring highland areas. This research will expand and build upon ongoing glaciological research projects that have been conducted in collaboration between several Nordic research institutes since 2002 with support from Nordic and national sources.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
The project will provide a valuable reference for future research and monitoring of glaciers and ice caps in the Nordic countries. Accurate maps of the ice caps will make it possible to measure future changes against a well defined baseline corresponding to the IPY and are thus important for validating, interpreting and extending existing mass balance data. A consistent data set of glacier mass balance measurements and an in depth analysis of the current climate and the dynamics of the main ice caps will provide information that is important locally in a socio-economic context and also internationally because of the effect of glaciers and small ice caps on global sea level and the Arctic fresh water budget.

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
The project is a collaboration between hydrological institutes, universities and other institutes in the Nordic countries involved in glacier research. This collaboration is built on a network of contacts that has been established in several Nordic projects in this field in the past. Airborne laser scanning altimetry will be carried out in collaboration with the Institute of Navigation at the University of Stuttgart. A collaboration with the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research at the University of Colorado in the USA provides a link with the international research community involved with global sea level rise.

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Iceland, 23°W-15°W, 63°N-66.5°N; regions in Greenland, Norway, northern Lapland and other parts of Sweden, which will be chosen during further planning of the project.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: 08/07 – 09/07            
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
It is foreseen that mapping of ice caps in the Icelandic highland will be carried out by airborne laser scanning altimetry. This requires an airplane for the radar and ground support of GPS base stations within 30 km of the ice caps that will be mapped. The GPS stations will be operated in collaboration with several institutes in Iceland that operate such equipment. Sharing with other projects beyond this is not foreseen. Other parts of the project involve field activity related to yearly field measurements of the participating institutes.

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
Digital maps of ice caps in Iceland, and possibly other glaciers in the study region, will provide a baseline for future monitoring of glaciers and glacial rivers in the Nordic countries and they are also valuable for future monitoring of volcanoes and geothermal areas in Iceland. The mass balance data set with mass balance data from Nordic glaciers will provide a common database format and future collaborative framework for sharing and interpretation of glacier mass balance measurements.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
Commercial operator
Own support

The required logistics are not technically demanding or very expensive due to the proximity of the research areas to airports and inhabited areas. For this reason, no particular problems of logistic nature are foreseen in the project.

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
The project has been endorsed by the Icelandic national IPY committee and by representitives of the respective institutes that will collaborate in the project. Support of other Nordic national IPY committees is being sought.

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
New
The project is an extension and broadening of Nordic projects (CWE, CE) and national projects (VVO, VO in Iceland) where the project members have collaborated in glaciological and hydrological research. The mapping component of the project is new.

How will the project be organised and managed?
The project members have collaborated in two Nordic, two Icelandic and some European projects funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers, the Nordic Energy Fund and national Icelandic and other Nordic and European sources since 2002. They have implemented a division of work that takes advantage of the available expertise at the respective institutes (data management, meteorological modelling, glacier mass balance modelling, dynamic glacier modelling, GIS). The project management structure that has been established in these previous projects will be used in the CMBGN project. This includes work package management through formal contracts with the project members, an established process for financial management and a web-based communication system including sharing of data through a central archive.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
The project will maintain a web-server where results and reports will be available. A collaboration with the glacier museums, for example at Höfn in Hornafjörður, southeastern Iceland, is envisaged whereby the project results will be introduced to the public in exibitions among other research results about glaciers.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document)?
The project members aim to make data collected and analysed as a part of the project available to other scientists and the public as self-describing data sets in a well documented format based on work already carried out by the project members in previous projects. The data will initially be available from the project web-server, but other options, such as making the data available as a part of appropriate international archives, will also be investigated.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
It is foreseen that a part of the project will be funded as a continuation of ongoing Nordic collaboration in glaciological research (CWE, CE) in connection with energy issues and a continuation of national counterparts of these (VVO, VO in Iceland supported by the National Power Company and the National Energy Fund). Additional financing from international funding agencies (the sixth framework programme) will also be sought together with possible additional national resources related to the IPY, in particular to cover the cost of mapping.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
The main components of the project are: Meteorology Precipitation in glaciated areas will be modelled using the ERA40 data set from ECMWF, available snow accumulation measurements from glaciers, and precipitation measurements from meteorological stations. The aim of the computations will be to produce gridded maps of monthly precipitation on the studied glaciers since 1958. Existing studies of temperature on the glaciers will also be extended by an analysis of the ERA40 data set. Glaciology Glacier mass balance will be modelled based on the results of the meteorological studies described above using available mass balance data from the main ice caps. Special emphasis will be given to the relationship between climate variations and mass balance variations during the interval spanned by the mass balance data. Dynamic glacier models of main ice caps will be calibrated based on mass balance modelling, dated ice horizons in ablation areas based on tephrochronology, and available information about climate and glacier variations during the last several hundred years. Glacier mapping The altitude of the ice surface of all the major ice caps in Iceland and possibly some other ice caps in other participating countries will be mapped to produce an accurate reference against which future glacier variations may be measured. Repeated mapping will make it possible to validate and extend existing glacier mass balance data. Hydrology Glacier mass balance and hydrological modelling will be used to model diurnal and seasonal variations in glacier river discharge, including storage of melt water in the firn and routing of melt water through the subglacial hydraulic system to the glacier margin. Climate change Information about climate variations during the last 100 years and scenarios for possible climate changes in the future will be used to assess the future development of glaciers and glacier hydrology. This work will involve coupled dynamic and mass balance glacier models. Additional project members and their affiliation in addition to those listed under item 4.2: Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir Science Institute, University of Iceland/University of Swansea Hallgeir Elvehøy Norwegian water resources and energy directorate Carl Egede Bøggild Geocenter Copenhagen (GEUS), Denmark

PROPOSER DETAILS

Dr Tómas Jóhannesson
Icelandic Meteorological Office
Bústaðavegur 9
Reykavík
IS-150
Iceland

Tel: +354-522-6000
Mobile: +354-897-4127
Fax: +354-522-6001
Email:

Other project members and their affiliation

Other Information