Expressions of Intent for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Expression of Interest Details

PROPOSAL INFORMATION

Potential emissions from Arctic methane hydrate – development of isotopic monitoring  (Arcticmeth)

Outline
This proposal is to monitor Arctic methane and 13C in methane, based on Ny Alesund, Svalbard. The Arctic plays a key role in global methane systematics. Mixing ratios highest in the far north, but the world’s biggest gasfields and some of the largest wetlands are Arctic. Large areas of the Barents, Kara, and Beaufort seas, are underlain by methane hydrate. In places free gas is trapped under hydrate, liable to burst out if the trap decays if waters in the shallow sea floors warm by 4C or more. Though small bubbles from disseminated hydrate may be oxidised by methanotrophs, larger outbursts may feedback to global warming. There is also a risk of major submarine slides on decaying hydrate, as ice melts, similar to the Storegga slide, triggered as Norway deglaciated, which put a 20m tsunami over Shetland. It is possible that as slides creep before failure, CH4 emissions may increase. Methane, particularly northern methane, is clearly a major factor in past abrupt climate changes, and better understanding of modern Arctic methane should help in understanding past changes also.Isotopic monitoring of both atmospheric methane and methane in seawater, coupled to trajectory analysis and inverse modelling, is needed to assess these Arctic risks. The work can identify major sources of methane by location (back trajectory), character (wetlands and gasfields are isotopically distinct), and season. With frequent air sampling it should be possible to identify major new sources. Studies of methane isotopes in water from grab samples will allow monitoring for major new submarine inputs.Royal Holloway, in conjunction with NILU-Tromso, has carried out campaign studies at Ny Alesund and has collection procedures set up. Our Russian partners carry out regular field campaigns in the Ob river estuary, and we are intercompared with IUP Heidelberg, who collect air in Antarctica. We propose expanding the present campaign-only studies to more continuous monitoring. Sample collection will be from Ny Alesund and in flasks from several Russian sites. Collection on Svalbard will be out of phase with the parallel Japanese Arctic program. Flask collection in NW Siberia will probably be near Salekhard, and will be linked to field campaigns, by flask and tank analysis, with Russian partners in the Ob River gasfields and wetlands. This work will include diurnal campaigns to characterise local methane sources. Water studies will be in surface water samples from Spitsbergen and the Russian coast, to look for anomalous methane and d13C in methane from hydrate releases.

What significant advance(s) in relation to the IPY themes and targets can be anticipated from this project?
The project will provide better knowledge of one of the main climate drivers and place constraints on the risk of abrupt future change driven by Arctic methane. It will help in closing the global methane budget, with its important Arctic inputs. It will also help identify gas leaks and potential new gasfields and aid in devising startegies for coping with potential Arctic release (e.g. is it better the extract the gas than to let it leak to air).

What international collaboration is involved in this project?
Sampling with NILU-Tromso and MGO/RCRSA St Petersburg. Intercomparison with IUP-Heidelberg, NIWA-New Zealand, LSCE-Paris and NOAA-CMDL Boulder, and possibly JMO

FIELD ACTIVITY DETAILS

Geographical location(s) for the proposed field activities:
Air and water sampling at Ny Alesund (with NILU partner) , Ob river estuary, Salekhard and Teriberka Russia (by Russian partners), and Mace Head Ireland and Ascension for comparison. Possible water sampling at Alert.

Approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities:
Arctic: initiation of long-term monitoring            
Antarctic: n/a

Significant facilities will be required for this project:
Support from NILU Ny Alesund for sampling, and shipping of dangerous goods (compressed air) (this is a skill and the Ny Alesund station has a trained dispatcher)

Will the project leave a legacy of infrastructure?
This is the fundamental purpose – to begin long-term high-precision monitoring to support the existing Japanese work in the Norwegian Arctic.

How is it envisaged that the required logistic support will be secured?
National agency
Own support
Other sources of support

Sampling upport from NILU Zeppelinfjellet station at Ny Alesund, and extension of our current Ob River and Russian Arctic partnership with RCRSA Voiekovo and Main Geophysical Obsrvatory, St Petersburg

Has the project been "endorsed" at a national or international level?
Not yet supported by national polar committee but has been supported by global change programs: Initial ‘proving’ work supported by NILU (Norwegian Inst. for Atmospheric Research) and by European Union (Meth-MonitEUr, 2003-5)

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND STRUCTURE

Is the project a short-term expansion (over the IPY 2007-2008 timeframe) of an existing plan, programme or initiative or is it a new autonomous proposal?
Yes
Present Meth-MonitEUr study finishes early 2005. A follow-on is hoped for but at present there is no certainty that the EU will in future support methane monitoring except at tall towers within EU landmass. The UK does not participate in WMO/IAEA coordinated global greenhouse gas monitoring and does not monitor greenhouse gases, except for RHUL work and the ozone-linked AGAGE CH4 work in Ireland, which is differently standardised and not used in global models.

How will the project be organised and managed?
Existing partnership between Royal Holloway, Russian centre for remote Sensing of the Atmosphere, and NILU (Norwegian Air Research Inst.) will be developed.

What are the initial plans of the project for addressing the education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
Royal Holloway has an active media program. EG Nisbet has participated in several major TV documentaries on Arctic methane.

What are the initial plans of the project to address data management issues (as outlined in the Framework document)?
All data will be published. Key problem is intercomparibility with other EU and US groups, and east Asian and Canadian programs: we would hope to develop round robin exchanges.

How is it proposed to fund the project?
Application to EU if, as hoped, next call includes CH4, Application also to NERC. However UK presently is only major nation not supporting WMO/IAEA global greenhouse gas monitoring partnership, so chance of success low.

Is there additional information you wish to provide?
Arctic greenhouse gases are important, and are a potential risk in abrupt climate change, but isotopic monitoring work is inadequate. With the shutdown of Meth-MonitEUr in Jan 2005, Eurasian Arctic monitoring depends mainly on Japan. IPY is an opportunity to begin a longer-term EU commitment to understanding Arctic methane.

PROPOSER DETAILS

Prof Euan Nisbet
Royal Holloway
Univ.of London
Egham, Surrey
TW20 0EX
UK

Tel: +44-1784-443581
Mobile:
Fax: +44-1784-471780
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