Full Proposals for IPY 2007-2008 Activities

Proposed IPY Activity Details

1.0 PROPOSER INFORMATION

(Activity ID No: 379)

1.1 Title of Activity
IPY Operational Oceanography for the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas

1.2 Short Form Title of Proposed Activity
IPY Arctic GOOS

1.3 Activity Leader Details
Ola M. JOhannesseo
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center/Mohn Sverdrup Center
Norway

1.4 Lead International Organisation(s) (if applicable)
EuroGOOS

1.5 Other Countries involved in the activity
Sweden
Finland
Russia
Denmark
Iceland
UK
France
Faroe Islands
Germany
Poland
USA

1.6 Expression of Intent ID #'s brought together in this proposed activity
29, 992

1.7 Location of Field Activities
Arctic

1.8 Which IPY themes are addressed
1. Current state of the environment
2. Change in the polar regions
4. Exploring new frontiers
5. The polar regions as vantage points

1.9 What is the main IPY target addressed by this activity
1. Natural or social science

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2.0 SUMMARY OF THE ACTIVITY

The Arctic climate of the 20th century has undergone major fluctuations, which are characterized by a significant warming in the last two decades. The warming predicted for the high Arctic is 3–4 °C in winter during the next 50 years, more than twice the global average, while the ice cover is predicted to be reduced by ~80% during summer and ~20% during winter. This suggests that the Arctic may be where the most rapid and dramatic climate changes take place during the 21st century, with major ramifications for mid-latitude climate.
The sea ice cover has over the last 2-3 decades decreased by ~10%, and the ice thickness has decreased up to 40% during summer. Other observed changes include a warming of the Atlantic water in the Arctic Ocean, increased precipitation in the Arctic regions and higher river discharge into the Arctic ocean. During the last decades detected changes include a significant freshening of the deep North Atlantic Ocean, warming in the deep water of the Nordic Seas and a decrease of deep overflow in the Faeroe Bank Channel. The oceanic fluxes of heat and freshwater between the North Atlantic, Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean are key components of the high-latitude climate system.
The recent Arctic Climate Impact Assessment studies have identified a number of severe impacts of Arctic warming on society. Changes in air temperature, precipitation, river discharge, sea ice, permafrost, glaciers and sea level have been documented and further changes are expected in the next decades. The Arctic region is coming under increasing pressure from unsustainable development with pollution and other negative effects on the environment. The exploitation of resources, including sea transportation and offshore operations will be heavily affected by the climate- variability and long-term changes at high latitudes. The northeast Atlantic, including Greenland and Icelandic waters, the Barents Sea and other Arctic ice edge regions, provides 20% of the world’s fish catch. Ocean temperature is one of the key variables that have influence on fisheries. Various offshore operations in ice-covered waters will increase such as offshore exploration, drilling, oil and gas production, and gas transportation, pipeline deployment in the seabed, and building of terminals in several locations along the Arctic coasts. All these activities will increase the risk of accidents and severe pollution of the fragile Arctic environment.
The Arctic areas have rough weather and ice conditions which require improvement of operational monitoring and forecasting services in order to safeguard all types of marine and coastal operations. The operational services should also include long-term data archiving services to build up statistics of the environmental conditions. Operational services on met-ice-ocean conditions in theses areas are extremely important for safe and cost-effective industrial and transport activities as well as for protection of the vulnerable environment.
The overall objective of IPY Arctic GOOS to develop and implement operational monitoring and forecasting systems in the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas. The systems will be based on state-of-the-art remote sensing, in situ observations, numerical modelling, data assimilation and dissemination techniques. The activities will include the development and maintenance of observing system for sea ice and physical, chemical and biological ocean parameters. The observing systems need to including icebergs, potential oil spills, radioactive spreading and other pollutants. In addition to observations, the systems will include numerical modelling and data assimilation for production of short-term forecasts. New models and data assimilation techniques need to be developed where needed. A long-term objective is to develop modelling systems for seasonal prediction of sea ice, hydrographic and current conditions. State-of-the-art climate models will be used to quantify climate change and variability and prediction of future climate changes under greenhouse gas scenarios. The Arctic EuroGOOS planning document is available at ftp://ftp.nersc.no/OMJ/att-eurogoos.pdf

2.1 What is the evidence of inter-disciplinarity in this activity?
The development and implementation of operational services will include the physics of atmosphere, sea ice and ocean, as well as ocean chemistry, biology and lower trophic levels of the marine ecosystems.

2.2 What will be the significant advances/developments from this activity? What will be the major deliverables? What are the outputs for your peers?
The main results of the activities will be operational products related to monitoring and forecasts of:ocean circulation; ocean surface conditions, water mass and sea ice; transport pathways; algae blooms and plankton production and distribution; fish larvae transport, growth and distribution. This information, in turn, will be used for studies of effects on ecosystems such as fish recruitment; contaminant transport, distribution and exposure on plankton and fish larvae, and resulting impact of physics and lower trophic ecosystem changes on higher trophic levels. A web-based Information and Decision Support System for daily updated dissemination of value-added products and data to the marine user community and for collection of feedback on the quality and usefulness of the information.

2.3 Outline the geographical location(s) for the proposed field work (approximate coordinates will be helpful if possible)

2.4 Define the approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities?

2.5 What major logistic support/facilities will be required for this project?
Ice strengthened research ship
Ship recovery of buoys etc
Helicopters
Rockets

Further details – The field activities will be extension of the regular hydrographical and marine biological surveys in the Barents, Norwegian, Greenland and Icelandic Seas. These field activities will be enhanced with additional cruises during IPY.

2.6 How will the required logistics be supplied? Have operators been approached?

2.7 If working in the Arctic regions, has there been contact with local indigenous groups or relevant authorities regarding access?
not applicable for marine activities

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3.0 STRUCTURE OF THE ACTIVITY

3.1 Origin of the activity
This activity is the start of a new programme that will outlive IPY

3.2 How will the activity be organised and managed? Describe the proposed management structure and means for coordinating across the cluster
The activities of the IPY Arctic GOOS will be organised by a coordinating office at the Mohn Sverdrup Center at Nansen Center. Management and coordinated will be done under EuroGOOS.

3.3 Will the activity leave a legacy of infrastructure and if so in what form?
The activities will leave a legacy of modelling and observational systems as well as dissemination systems which will be operated under the Arctic GOOS after IPY.

3.4 Will the activity involve nations other than traditional polar nations? How will this be addressed?
Nations which start to work in the Arctic will be involved. For example, Poland has started to perform regular hydrographical surveys in the Fram Strait. China has started to work in the Arctic. China and other countries will be involved in Arctic GOOS when they start to produce marine data.

3.5 Will this activity be linked with other IPY core activities? If yes please specify
The activities will be linked to several other IPY projects: especially IPY CARE and IAOOS / DAMOCLES and several Canadian IPY projects. IPY Arctic GOOS is focusing on operational systems, while most of the other related IPY projects are focusing on research and development of new observational systems.

3.6 How will the activity manage its data? Is there a viable plan and which data management organisations/structures will be involved?
The data will be managed according to EuroGOOS and GOOS guidelines. The data products and services provided via Arctic GOOS will be openly available to all users.

3.7 Data Policy Agreement
Will this activity sign up to the IPY draft Data Policy (see website)
Yes

3.8 How will the activity contribute to developing the next generation of polar scientists, logisticians, etc.?
UNIS (University Centre in Svalbard) is established for academic education in Arctic sciences and logictics. UNIS has students from many countries and all courses are given in English. UNIS plays an important role in educating the next generation of polar scientists and logisticians. UNIS will increase its educational activities during IPY. Also NERSC/Mohn Sverdrup Center, University of Bergen and University of Oslo will contribute to education of polar scientists.

3.9 How will this activity address education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
UNIS has already extensive M Sc and Ph D programmes in ARctic sciences. Several M Sc and PhD programmes in operational oceanography with focus on the Arctic seas have started in the Mohn Sverdrup Center. Other consortium partners have also educational programmes for the Arctic and high latitude oceanography, in particular University of Bergen and University of Oslo. Products and services delivered under Arctic GOOS will be promoted via EuroGOOS and directly to users who can download products via web portals.

3.10 What are the proposed sources of funding for this activity?
Most of the funding will be provided by national IPY programmes and polar programmes. A proposal from the Norwegian team will be submitted to the Norwegian IPY programme by 15 March 2006. Some funding are provided in the EU-funded projects MERSEA IP, and DAMOCLES IP.

3.11 Additional Comments
Arctic GOOS will focus on near real time monitoring by satellites, data assimilation and forecasting using numerical modelling. In situ data from buoys, ships, and other platforms will be used as much as possible depending on the time delay in data delivery. Development of new observing systems will primarily be done in other IPY projects. When new observing systems are installed, or existing observing systems extended to new areas, the data will be used by the Arctic GOOS models. New model development, including validation, will be developed by Arctic GOOS.

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4.0 CONSORTIUM INFORMATION

4.1 Contact Details

Lead Contact
Prof OLa M Johannessen
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center / Mohn Sverdrup Center
Thormøhlensgate 47, Bergen
N-5006
NORWAY

Tel:          +47 55205800
Mobile:   +47 90135336
Fax:         + 47 55205801
Email:      

Second Contact
Mr Stein Sandven
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center
Thormøhlensgate 47, Bergen
N-5006
Norway

Tel:          +47 55205800
Mobile:   +47 99368440
Fax:         + 47 55205801
Email:     

4.2 Other significant consortium members and their affiliation